【作者】 王科唯；

【导师】 徐平；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 制造业是国民经济的物质基础和产业主体,主要是指对采掘的自然物质资源和工农生产的原材料进行加工和再加工,并为国民经济其他部门提供生产材料、为全社会提供日用消费品的社会生产制造部门。纵观世界经济发展的历史,从农业国向工业国的转变,无不与先进的制造业相关联。中国经过改革开放30年的飞速发展,经济实力、综合国力、人民生活水平得到了很大的提高,2007年的GDP总额核定数据超越德国位居世界第三,制造业水平也有了很大提高,成为继美国、日本之后的世界第三制造业大国。但事实上,中国的制造业在生产技术、管理水平、劳动生产率、产品附加价值以及对核心和关键技术的进口依赖度等方面仍然与日本等发达工业国家有一定的梯度差距,尚处于工业化中期阶段。根据国内外研究,缩小这些差距既可以通过自主创新、引进技术和投资等方法来实现,也可以通过国家间的经济合作如技术开发合作、项目合作等方式来实现。因此,对选择哪个国家进行合作,以及对合作的必要性进行研究显得尤为重要。中国与日本一衣带水,一个是东亚地区最大的发展中国家,一个是东亚地区最先进的发达国家。目前,中国是日本最大的进口商品来源国,而日本是中国继欧盟、美国之后的第三大贸易伙伴和投资来源地,也是为中国提供政府开发援助(ODA)最多的国家。上述情况表明,日本对中国经济发展形成支持,中国也为日本的经济增长提供动力,中日两国之间不仅是近邻,而且经济依存关系密切,这为中日开展广泛的经济合作提供了前提条件。基于此,本文拟以中日制造业为切入点从关联角度对中日合作进行实证分析。在经济全球化的背景下,学术界普遍认为中日两国之间乃至更大范围的东亚经济合作是历史的必然,但对中日之间是否存在强的依存关系以及如何度量等方面问题的研究仍显不足,而且关于中日两国及其各产业的经济增长对双方经济增长关联程度的有效分析模型的构建仍属空白。因此,作者试图以中日制造业的产业关联为研究视角,努力弥补学术界在该方面存在的不足,从中日制造业存在的差距、其差距能否对中日合作形成阻碍、在可预测的未来是否具有合作潜力以及现在是否具有合作的基础条件等方面入手,对两国合作进行中观层面的实证分析,为经济决策提供依据。研究结果表明:1.中日制造业之间存在着巨大的梯度差距。(1)根据列昂惕夫假说,通过对中日制造业地平线图的比较分析,看出中国的地平线图比较凹凸不平,而日本的比较平直,由此可见,中国的产业结构发展还不成熟。(2)利用比较优势指数对中日贸易结构上的差距进行分析,并运用一对一和一对多的产业关联分析方法对拉动中国国民经济发展的支柱产业和日本的支柱产业的差异进行比较,发现中国在产业结构和贸易结构方面还与日本存在很大差距,两国的支柱产业也不尽相同。(3)利用SDA等分析方法对中日制造业之间的差距以及形成差距的主要原因进行结构分析,从而针对差距和问题制定相应对策,以加快制造业的产业结构升级和优化。2.中日制造业之间存在着巨大的合作潜力。目前,在以欧盟、北美自由贸易区、东盟为代表的比较成功的区域经济组织中各成员国的经济发展水平比较接近,而中国和日本制造业之间却存在着巨大的差距。其差距是否会阻碍中日合作的发展进程,从中日是否具有合作潜力和合作必要性两方面进行分析,通过对中日制造业潜在的产业关联分析结果表明,中日制造业之间在将来可预测的期间内存在着巨大的合作潜力和合作前景。3.中日制造业之间存在着合作的必要性。通过建立中日经济增长互动模型,并以中国2000年和日本2002年为基期(由于数据原因,选择年份较早),对中日经济增长互动模型进行了具体应用。其结果表明,当日本2005年相对2002年总产出增加1单位时,会使中国总产出增加0.178个单位;当中国2002年相对2000年总产出增加1个单位时,会使日本总产出增加44.79个单位。同时也可得到中日各产业增长对双方经济增长的相互影响程度数据。由此可见,两国经济是互惠互利的,而且中国的经济增长对日本经济的促进作用远大于日本经济增长对中国经济的促进作用。综上所述,中国和日本在制造业方面虽然存在着一定的差距,但是合作潜力巨大,并且双方的经济增长是相互促进、互为增长条件的,这为两国经济合作提供了中观经济基础。因此,通过加强两国制造业间的分工合作,对促进中国产业结构升级和优化以及日本经济的增长乃至东亚一体化进程都具有十分重要的意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 Manufacturing industry is the material foundation of national economy, which mainly works on processing and re-processing natural resources and raw materials in order to provide capital goods to other national sectors and consumer goods to the whole society. From the view of the developmental history of world economy, advanced manufacturing is an indispensable factor for the upgrade of national economy from agriculture to industry. China now has a great advancement in economic power, overall national strength and people’s living standards by the reform and opening up for over thirty years. China ranks third in 2007 world Total Approvals of GDP beyond Germany. Now China has had a great advancement in manufacturing, and becomes the third largest manufacturing country, only ranking after the United States and Japan. But Chinese manufacturing industry still has a great grads gap in production technology, management, labor productivity, value-added products, as well as the import dependence of core and key technologies with developed countries such as Japan. Chinese industrialization is still in mid-stage. According to the existing literatures at home and abroad, these gaps can be narrowed not only by the means of independent innovation, technology introduction and investment, but also by economic cooperation with other countries such as technology development cooperation and project cooperation. Therefore, it is especially important to make a clear of the following questions. Those are which countries should be chose to cooperate with and why to cooperate with those countries.Not only China and Japan is adjoined in geography, but both of them are also the largest countries in different aspects in eastern Asian region. China is the largest developing country and Japan is the most advanced developed country. At present, China is the largest import country for Japan, and Japan,following EU and the United States,becomes the third largest trade partner and investment country for China. And Japan also provides the most government development assistance (ODA) to China. These facts show that Chinese economic development partly depends on Japan and Japanese economic growth needs the support from Chinese economy. Thus, China and Japan is close not only in geography but especially in economy. In this way, the economic cooperation between China and Japan has a good prerequisite. Based on it, the dissertation analyses positively Sino-Japanese cooperation in manufacturing in the perspective of industry correlation.Most of scholars agreed that the economic cooperation between China and Japan and even in the whole eastern Asian is inexorable trend in the context of economic globalization. But it is still insufficient of the studies about the existence and measurement of the economic interdependence degree of China and Japan, and it is still blank of the studies about the effective analysis model of the economic growth correlation between China and Japan and even between their respective industries.Therefore, the dissertation shows a positive analysis of the industrial-level cooperation between China and Japan. The analysis is about the existing gaps, the blocks caused by these gaps, the potential in expected future, the conditions and so on of manufacturing cooperation between China and Japan and can provide a basis for economic decision-making. The results of the analysis show that:1. There is a great gap in manufacturing between China and Japan. (1) According to Leontief hypothesis, by the comparative analysis of Chinese and Japanese respective skyline map in manufacturing, it finds that the skyline map of China is much more rugged than Japan. This shows that Chinese industrial structure is still not mature. (2) Through the comparative analysis of the gaps in trade structure by comparative advantage index and of pillar industries by one to one and one-to-many industrial correlations between China and Japan, it finds that China lags behind Japan in industrial structure and trade structure, and China is different with Japan in pillar industries. (3) It analyses the gaps and the formation of the gaps in manufacturing between China and Japan by the means of Structure Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and so on, and then makes corresponding policies against these gaps and problems, so as to speed up upgrading and optimizing industrial structure in Chinese manufacturing.2. There is great potential in Sino-Japan manufacturing cooperation. At present, there is a similar level of economic development among the member countries in the mature regional economic organizations such as the European Union, NAFTA, and ASEAN. By contrast, there are huge gaps in manufacturing between China and Japan. Whether the gaps can hinder the process of Sino-Japan economic cooperation? The problem can be answered by the analysis of potential and conditions of Sino-Japan cooperation. The result of the analysis shows that there is great potential and perspective in Sino-Japan economic cooperation in expected future.3. It is necessary for China and Japan to realize the deeply economic cooperation. Firstly, build up a model of Sino-Japan interactively economic growth, and then put it into practice as the base year of 2000 for China and 2002 for Japan (the base year is early because of the existing data). The result shows that if Japanese total output of 2005 increases by 1 unit from that of 2002, Chinese total output will accordingly increase by 0.178 units; and if Chinese total output of 2002 increases by 1 unit from that of 2000, Japanese total output will accordingly increase by 44.79 units. Meanwhile, the results in industry-level between China and Japan have been achieved. Conclusions are that the two economies are mutually beneficial and Chinese economic growth is more important for Japan than Japan’s for China.To sum up, there are some gaps in manufacturing between China and Japan, but there is also the enormous potential of economic cooperation. And both countries help each other forward in economic growth, which becomes the foundation of industrial-level economic cooperation. Therefore, to strengthen the division of labor and cooperation helps Chinese industrial structure to upgrade and optimize, and improves Japanese economic growth, and furthers the integration process of East Asia.更多还原