【作者】 卢秉福；

【导师】 张祖立；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳农业大学 ， 农业机械化工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 针对目前我国农业机械化的实际情况与农村发展的现状,从可持续发展的角度出发,对农业机械化与农村可持续发展进行了动态的、整体的、系统地分析,明确了农业机械化与农村发展系统以及系统内部要素之间相互关系、相互作用的形式,提出了农业机械化与农村可持续发展战略,对推进我国农业机械化和农村可持续性发展有着重要的理论意义和现实意义。应用DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)法研究了农业机械化和农村可持续发展的影响因素,确定了我国农业机械化与农村可持续发展的主要影响因素,并对主要影响因素进行了分析。构建了我国农业机械化发展效应测度的ICOE指标体系,应用全局密切值法对我国各省、市、自治区农业机械化发展效应进行测度,指出我国各地区农业机械化的发展地区间差异较大,存在着严重的不平衡性,并且这种不平衡性在短期内难以打破;构建农村可持续发展评价指标体系并建立评价模型,应用有关统计数据对我国各省、市、自治区农村可持续发展能力进行了分析和评价,根据评价结果将我国各省、市、自治区农村可持续发展能力进行了划分。研究了农业机械化与农村经济、农村社会、农村资源环境之间的关系,明确了农业机械化与GDP、农业总产值、农业增加值、农民收入、农业劳动生产率、农村教育、农村社会福利、农村劳动力转移数量呈显著正相关,即农业机械化的发展对这些指标具有明显的正向影响;农业机械化可以显著的提高粮食综合生产能力,抑制农村人口增长、加快农村土地的规模经营,实现土地的规模效益,促进农村劳动力的转移并加快城市化进程;农业机械化对农村环境既有正向作用,也有负向作用,因此,在采用农业机械化技术时,要采用有利于保护农村环境的技术。应用博弈论分析了中国农业机械化制度的变迁历程,指出每一项制度安排都是各利益集团之间博弈的结果。从根本上说,一种新的制度安排实质上是一种“帕累托改进”的过程,它有利于社会福利最大化,有利于社会的进步与稳定;应用经济学理论对农业机械化的外部性问题进行科学的分析,指出农业机械化是公共物品和私人物品的综合体,因此,政府应该对农业机械化支持。农业机械化具有公共物品的属性是政府在财政政策上对农业机械化支持的理论依据。在对农业机械化与农村可持续发展系统研究的基础上,通过对黑龙江省宁安市的实地调查,并结合统计数据对宁安市农业机械化与农村可持续发展进行了实证分析,验证了影响农业机械化与农村发展的主要因素的作用,明确了农业机械化在农村可持续发展中的地位,提出了以制度创新为核心、法律体系为保障、技术体系为支撑位主要内容的现阶段农业机械化与农村可持续发展策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 According to the real complexion of agricultural mechanization and actuality of rural development, agricultural mechanization and rural development were analyzed dynamically, unitarily and systemically from the point of view of sustainable development. The relation was nailed down between both systems of agricultural mechanization and rural development, and among internal factors of the system. Development stratagem of agricultural mechanization and rural sustainable development was given, which was significant to promote sustainable development of agricultural mechanization and countryside theoretically and really.The method of DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) was applied to research influencing factors of rural sustainable development and agricultural mechanization, all influencing factors were differentiated and main factors of them were determined and analyzed.A evaluation index system of ICOE was set up for development effect of agricultural mechanization and a method of global osculating value was applied to evaluate development effect of agricultural mechanization in provinces of China. It was pointed out that difference was great between provinces, so did its unbalance, which was not broken in short time. At same time the evaluation index system and mathematical model were established for rural sustainable development, and statistical data were applied to evaluate and analyze the ability of rural sustainable development in provinces of China, which was divided into 3 groups of A,B and C according result of evaluation.The relation was researched between agricultural mechanization and rural economy, rural society, rural resource & environment, prominent positive correlation was confirmed between agricultural mechanization and GDP, gross output value of agriculture, value-added of agriculture, per capita annual income of rural household, productive efficiency of agriculture, rural education, rural welfare, transferring quantity of rural labor force, namely development of agricultural mechanization could influence them positively. Agricultural mechanization could promote productive ability of grain, restrain increase of population, expedite to enlarge managing scale of rural arable land, realize benefit of scalization of arable land, hoist ratio of urbanization, transfer rural labor force. Agricultural mechanization played an important role in rural environment both positively and negatively. The techniques should be taken which was propitious to protect rural environment when agricultural machines was adopted in agricultural production.Game theory was applied to analyze course of system variance of agricultural mechanization and every system arrangement came from result of benefit groups competing. Quiddity of a system arrangement was basically process of "Pareto optimality", which was in favor of maximizing social welfare, development and stability of society. Economical theory was applied to analyze externalities of agricultural mechanization, which shew that agricultural mechanization was syntheses of public and private goods. Therefore, the government of China ought to support development of agricultural mechanization. Attribute of public goods of agricultural mechanization was an academic foundation that government sustained agricultural mechanization in financial policy.Under basis of systemic study agricultural mechanization and rural sustainable development in Ning’an county of Heilongjiang province were empirically analyzed through statistical data and investigation. Functions of main factors were confirmed that influenced agricultural mechanization and rural development, status of agricultural mechanization was affirmed in rural sustainable development. Strategy of agricultural mechanization and rural sustainable development was put forward, which consisted of innovation system, law system and technical system.更多还原