【作者】 马涛；

【导师】 迟道才；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国是一个农业大国,也是一个灌溉大国,灌区在我国的社会经济发展进程中占有重要的地位。然而,目前我国大部分灌区由于年久失修,老化病损现象严重,运行难以为继,灌区续建配套与节水改造项目建设势在必行。鉴于此,本文以辽宁省东港灌区为例,对其运行状况及可持续发展水平进行综合评价,从而为国家对灌区进行改造建设的先后顺序及资金分配提供依据。本论文主要研究内容及结果如下:(1)介绍了我国灌区的基本情况,包括灌区的定义、分类及发展历程,概括了灌区在国民经济中的地位及作用,并指出目前我国灌区发展的困难与机遇。(2)总结了灌区评价指标体系的建立原则及存在的问题,提出了一种灌区评价指标体系建立方法:为保证评价指标体系的全面性和代表性,以中国灌溉排水发展中心提出的灌区现状评价指标体系为基础,尝试引入Spearman秩相关系数法,并结合专家咨询法,建立了一套较为合理的灌区评价指标体系,此方法具有一定的创新性和通用性。最后归纳了几种灌区综合评价模型,并指出了灌区综合评价研究存在的问题及研究动态。(3)给出了几种有代表性的评价指标主客观赋权方法——专家打分法、层次分析法、序关系分析法、基于粗集理论的属性重要度赋权法、变异系数法、熵值法、拉开档次法、简单关联函数法,归纳总结了这些方法的适用条件及优缺点,在此基础上提出了基于博弈论的综合赋权法,使指标权值的确定更加合理;(4)模糊综合评判模型是对受到多个因素影响的事物做出全面评价的一种有效的多因素决策方法,在国民经济的各个领域中都有广泛的应用,本文将该模型用于灌区运行状况综合评价之中,采用变异系数法和序关系分析法确定指标的主客观权重,利用博弈论的方法对指标赋予综合权重。评价结果显示,东港灌区的运行状况都有显著的提高,且友谊灌区的提高幅度最大。该模型得到的评价结果不仅可以对灌区进行横向比较,还可以对灌区进行纵向比较,且评价结果与实际情况相吻合。(5)可拓评价借助可拓学这个形式化的工具,通过建立多指标参数的评定模型来完整地反映事物的综合水平。本文针对该模型的不足对其作了一定的改进,首先在确定待评物元关于各类别等级的关联度时,对评价指标进行规格化处理,其次采用综合赋权法,克服了传统的可拓评价模型赋权过程中单纯依靠指标数据而忽略了指标自身属性的问题。采用改进后的可拓评价模型对灌区进行综合评价,得到灌区等级变量特征值。与其它评价方法相比,该方法不仅可以对灌区进行排序,而且还能给出灌区所属的等级及对该等级的所属程度。(6)本文提出了基于集对分析同异反态势度的灌区可持续发展评价模型,该模型简单易懂,不受指标体系中指标个数多少的限制,而且无需对指标赋权,通过构造灌区工程管理状况、社会经济状况和生态环境状况协调发展的生长曲线指数表达式,揭示了三者之间相互影响和相互制约的协调发展关系。评价结果表明,东港灌区的可持续发展水平总体上呈现上升趋势,在2006年时,三个分区均为基本协调。评价结果具有较好的合理性,因此将该模型用于灌区的可持续发展评价是可行的,同时也为灌区的综合评价提供了一条新的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a large agricultural country, meanwhile, it is an irrigated country, so the irrigation areas take a very important position in our national economy. However, now the aging and destruction of most irrigation structures in our courtry have been a widespread phenomenon. The irrigation areas are difficult to run, so it is imperative to perform the rebuilding and water-saving project. In view of that, this article conducts a comprehensive evaluation of running condition and sustainable development level for Donggang irrigation area in Liaoning. So that it can offer the basis of rebuilding order and fund allocation of irrigation areas. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) This acticle introduces the basic situation of irrigation area in our country, including the definition, classification and development process, generalizes the position and function of irrigation area in our national economy, and points out the difficulties and opportunities.(2) This acticle generalizes the establishment principles and problems of evaluation indexes system, and introduces a method of establishing evaluation indexes: in order to satisfy integrality and representative, the spearman rank correlation coefficient is introduced based on the evaluation indexes system of irrigation area proposed by China Irrigation & Drainage Development Centre. Combined with experts consulting method, the paper proposes a set of evaluation index system of irrigation areas. This method is innovative and generalized. Based on comparing with various evaluation models, this article points out the existing problems and development trend of irrigation area evaluation research.(3) Several representative weight determined methods are provided in this paper, which includes expert evaluating method, analytic hierarchy process, rank correlation analysis method, method of defining weight based on rough sets theory, variation coefficient method, entropy method, grad scale-up method, simple correlation function method. This acticle generalizes the advantages and disadvantages of them and their application conditions. Based on these, this acticle puts forward a comprehensive weight defining method based on game theory. Through the method, index weight can be more reasonable.(4) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is an effective multi-factor decision model, and it is widely used in every aspect of national economy. In this peper, the model is used to evaluate irrigation area’s running condition. The objective weight is defined by variation coefficient method, the subjective weight is defined by rank correlation analysis method, and the comprehensive weight is defined by game theory method. The evaluation result shows that the running condition of Donggang irrigation area is increased, and the increased range of Youyi irrigation area is the most significant. Through the relative result, irrigation areas are compared not only in horizontal orientation but also in longitudinal orientation, and the result fits the actual condition well.(5) By means of extension, a formalized tool, extension assessment model can be used to reflect whole level of irrigation area by establishing evaluation model of multi-index parameters. The improved matter-element extension assessment model is introduced in this paper. At first, in order to eliminate the evaluation effect of different unit and dimension, the indexes data are normalized; secondly, the method uses the game theory to determine the index weight. Compared with the calculating weight method in original matter-element extension assessment model, it overcomes the deficiency of relying on index data whereas ignoring the importance of indexes. The improved model is developed to evaluate the running condition of irrigation areas, and the grade variable characteristic values are obtained. Compared with other methods, this method gives out grade of irrigation area exactly.(6) A sustainable development evaluation model of irrigation area based on I.D.C. trend degrees of set pair analysis is put forward in this acticle. With simple form and theory, this model is not limitted on the numbers of evaluation indexes, and it is not necessary to define index weight in calculation process. An exponent model of coordinative development between the project condition, economy profit and eco-environment is set up, in which the coordinated development relationship of mutual influence and limit is revealed. The evaluation result shows that the whole trend of sustainable development level of irrigation area is increased, and it is approximately coordinative in 2006. The evaluation result is reasonable, so the model provides a feasible method for sustainable development evaluation for irrigation area, and supplies a new way for irrigation area evaluation.(7) At last, this acticle summarizes the research conclusions, and gives out the characteristics and innovations. Besides, the problems needing further research are proposed in this acticle.更多还原