【作者】 宿海颖；

【导师】 李智勇；

【作者基本信息】 中国林业科学研究院 ， 生态学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 在经济全球化的背景下,中俄战略协作伙伴关系不断深化,取得了长足进展,共同发展与共同繁荣业已成为两国共同关心的主题。中俄都是近年经济发展势头强劲的国家,从经济结构上看,两国的互补性很强,互利经贸合作的空间很大。中俄林业合作正是在此背景下蓬勃发展,由于地理位置、自然资源、人力资源、文化传承、资金技术等禀赋的差异,使得产生了对双方都有利的林产品互惠贸易。21世纪是中俄林业合作的新时期,国际国内形势也悄然发生着深刻变化,随着俄罗斯经济复苏,俄政府开始重视林业发展,不断出台新的林业政策,包括不断提高未加工木材的出口关税。现阶段的中国林业产业对俄罗斯木材资源的依赖性很大,俄罗斯政策的变化对我们的影响是显而易见的。本文以关税政策为切入点,探讨俄罗斯政策变化对中俄林产品贸易及中国林业产业安全的影响,对我们把握未来两国的合作方向和保障中国木材供应安全具有十分重要的意义。通过分析中俄两国林产品生产及贸易等方面的现状,探讨了两国林产品贸易的演变过程和波动状态。通过对中俄林产品比较优势指数、互补性指数的测算,指出中国具有比较优势的产品以劳动密集型产品为主,俄罗斯具有比较优势的产品以资源密集型产品为主,且两国具有比较优势产品的互补性很强,因此双方都能在国际贸易中获利。随后引入经常市场份额模型,分析了俄罗斯对中国原木、锯材的出口量不断增长的原因,研究表明正是由于中国林产品市场的扩大和俄罗斯锯材出口竞争力不断增强促使了俄罗斯对中国原木及锯材出口量的大幅上升。本文针对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策的多次变更,创建了关税博弈模型,试图用历史的、动态的眼光去评述其原木出口关税政策的演变过程,揭示俄罗斯关税政策调整背后的深刻背景,并对未来可能的走向做出判断。通过分析俄芬关税博弈的过程和结局,给中国提供了在处理对外贸易时可以参照的经验以及解决争端的手段和途径,对中俄构成相互依赖的格局,具有十分重要的现实意义。本文通过建立俄罗斯原木完税后的进口价格模型,对含税的价格梯度状态进行计算,结果表明原木完税后的进口价格取决于关税税率、汇率以及出口商品价格的综合变化。当汇率、均衡价格不变时,关税的上涨会带来成本的上升,并进而提高商品的价格。通过列举2008年的数据以及建立中国原木进口量、进口单价与俄罗斯原木出口关税变化之间的一元线性回归,验证了俄罗斯原木出口关税的高低波动造成商品价格的上涨,并进而影响中俄林产品贸易的结构。对俄罗斯原木出口关税的影响分析进一步扩展到中国林业产业安全问题,从宏观角度考察了其政策变化对中国林业产业及其运行产生的作用机制。通过建立中国林业产业安全模型,将产业对俄依存度作为重要指标,运用层次分析法对影响因素进行打分,得出如下结论:中国林业产业面临的风险较大,特别是对俄罗斯原木的依赖使得对其政策的敏感性很强,这将对未来中国原木进口的趋势带来不确定性,对林业产业发展带来不利影响。本文最后针对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策的变化,提出了相关应对策略及政策建议。提出应当建立产业安全预警机制,中国木材储备机制,保障国家木材安全战略;以政府为主导,为企业境外发展提供政策保障;加快国内人工林培育,提高国内木材保障能力;实施“走出去”战略,扶持企业境外发展。本文的创新点是从理论和实证方面探讨了俄罗斯关税变化对中俄林产品贸易及中国林业产业安全的影响。应用经常市场份额模型,分析了中俄木材贸易增长的原因;应用冲突模型对俄罗斯原木出口关税政策进行了政策模拟,得出了关税变化的趋势,为中国林业产业下一步应对提供了依据;建立了基于俄罗斯关税政策调整下的中国林业产业安全模型,对影响产业安全的各项因素进行了述评,得出了产业不安全的结论。未来将对诸如关税效应的时滞性,关税对各类企业的影响作进一步的深入研究。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the context of economic globalization, Sino-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation has made considerable progress. Much attention has been catched to the matter of common concern of development and prosperity between two countries. In recent years, Sino-Russia trade and economic cooperation showed a good momentum of rapid development. As China and Russia’s economies are highly complementary, there is great potentiality for two countries’ economic and trade cooperation. With this trend, Sino-Russian cooperation in forestry became more and more flourishing. Due to the differences of geographical location, natural resources, human resources, cultural heritage, capital and technology, making have had a beneficial reciprocal trade of forest products on either side. The 21st century is a new era of Sino-Russian cooperation in forestry, international and domestic situation has undergone profound changes taking place quietly.With the economic recovery of Russia, the Russian government started to attach importance to forestry development. They released new forestry policies, including rising export duty on unprocessed timber. At the present stage, China’s forestry industry depends heavily on Russia’s timber resources, therefore Russian policy change affects us is obvious.Based on tariff policy, we exploreed the changes in Russian policy on the impact of the Sino-Russian trade in forest products and the safety of China’s forestry industry.This is very important significance to us,which we can grasp the direction and protection of China’s timber supply security. Through analyzing situation of Sina-Russian forest products production and trade, we discussed the evolution and fluctuations of Sina-Russian forest products trade. Through analyzing the index of comparative advantage and complementarity of Sina-Russian forest products, pointed out that China has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive products, Russia has a comparative advantage in resource-intensive products, and the two countries have a comparative advantage of the products are highly complementary, so both sides make profit in international trade.Subsequently, market share model was introduced, analyzing the growing reasons of Russian timber and sawnwood’s exports to China. The results show that the reason is the expansion of China’s forest products market and the competitiveness of Russian sawnwood.In this paper, tariff game model on Russian timber export tariffs is introduced, we try to use history, dynamic vision to discuss the evolution process of Russian tariff policy and reveal deep background and the future trend. Through analyzing the process and the outcome of Russian-Finnish tariff game customs, provided the reference choices, means and avenue of settling disputesto China to deal with foreign trade. Research achievements are of realistic significance to constitute a pattern of interdependence between China and Russia.By model building the Russian log duty-paid import prices and regression test, it is seen that the logs after the duty-paid import prices depend on the tariff rates, exchange rates, as well as a comprehensive change in export commodity prices.When the exchange rate and the equilibrium price was unchanged, the export tariff’s rise will bring about increased costs and thus raise the prices of commodities. The paper establishes the linear regression to verify the Russian log export tariffs on the level of fluctuations in commodity prices and its effect on Sina-Russian forest products trade structure.The paper discussed the influence of China’s forestry industry via the new Russian timber export tariffs. By security model building on China’s forestry industry, we choose the degree of dependence on Russia as an important index. Use AHP to confirm bid-evaluation proportion scientifically and some conclusions have been made.Finally countermeasures against Russian adjustment in timber export tariffs are proposed. We should established early warning mechanism on industrial security, China’s timber reserves mechanism, speed up plantation cultivation and found large-scale industrial parks in Russia.The main innovative points of the dissertation are as follows. The paper discussed the reason of Sino-Russian timber trade growth by using regular market share model. Research of policy simulation system based on the conflict model of Russian log export tariff , to draw the trend of tariff changes.These results provide the basis for improving China’s forestry industry. The paper established the security model of China’s forestry industry based on the Russian tariff policy adjustment. We will dicuss time-delay of tariff effect and tariffs on the impact of various types of enterprises for further in-depth study.更多还原