【作者】 杨绪彪；

【导师】 黄泽民；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经济文献中最为传统的主题就是金融危机。在人类发展历史的长河中,金融危机如影相随,像“幽灵”一样伴随着世界经济的发展过程。每一次金融危机都留给了经济学家们无尽的思索。本文探讨的主题是美元本位制下美国金融危机的形成与传染机制。自次贷危机爆发到发展为全面的金融危机以来,理论学界从多方面开展了富有成效的研究,取得了一些可喜的成果。目前,对美国金融危机的关注更多地集中在对美国金融危机发生原因或形成机理的探讨上。在2007年至2008年初期,经济学家们更多的是分析次贷危机的发生原因或形成机理,然而,随着次贷危机的深化,次贷危机逐步发展成为了全球性的金融危机,经济学家们开始从不同视角修正和发展原先对次贷危机的认识。有关美国金融危机发生原因或形成机理的解释主要有:(1)美国金融危机的发生根源于美国的货币政策;(2)美国金融危机归咎于次贷及其金融衍生品的泛滥;(3)美国金融危机与美国政府部门的监管体制存在重点缺陷有关;(4)美国金融危机是全球经济失衡所导致,是全球经济失衡的产物;(5)美国金融危机根本原因在于美国经济结构的严重失衡,尤其是美国实体经济与虚拟经济的严重失衡;(6)美国金融危机归咎于中国的“汇率操纵”或以中国为代表的新兴市场国家的“过度储蓄”。在关于美国金融危机发生原因的六种解释中,前五种解释具有一定的客观性和科学性,分析也颇有见地。不可否认,这五种解释确实是揭示出了美国金融危机发生的直接原因或诱因,但这里需要提出质疑的是:什么原因决定着美国所采取的货币政策?次贷及其金融衍生品的泛滥又与什么因素相关?曾被认为是世界上最先进、最完善和最有秩序的金融市场,以及具有世界上最大和最国际化金融部门的美国政府部门的监管体制又为何存在现在看来如此明显的缺陷呢?全球经济失衡和美国国内经济结构严重失衡是什么原因所导致的呢?如果深入思考这些问题的话,美国金融危机的发生就不是这五种解释所能说明的了。将美国金融危机的责任归咎于中国“汇率操纵”或新兴市场国家“过度储蓄”的解释,只不过是反映了西方部分学者和政客的偏见和无知而已,他们的解释无非就是热衷于为华尔街洗清罪名而已。笔者认为,美国金融危机发生的根源在于美元本位制。主要观点如下:一、美元本位制与当代金融危机尤其是发展中国家金融危机的发生密切相关从目前来看,在所有有关金融危机的研究文献中,鲜有人从货币本位制角度去分析每一次金融危机。但笔者通过分析美元本位制的调节和运行机制、博弈规则以及美元本位制的缺陷,结合美元本位制确立以来国际金融危机频繁发生,得出美元本位制确实对近几次国际金融危机的发生负有不可推卸的责任。以此作为逻辑的出发点,笔者认为美元本位制也是造成目前美国金融危机爆发的根本原因。这既是本文的基本观点,也是本文的创新所在。二、美元本位制的内在脆弱性引发了美国金融危机美元本位制的内在脆弱性主要体现为:自我调节机制的缺失、新特里芬难题、最后贷款人角色的缺失以及美元霸权体系的不稳定性。美元本位制的这些内在脆弱性导致美元成为全球最大的风险要素以及美元汇率波动并呈现长期走低之势,也正因为如此,才引发美元信用危机以及带来“美元悖论”之困境,以至于最终导致美国金融危机爆发。三、美元本位制下的金融政策导致美国金融危机笔者认为,美元本位制的本质就是美元霸权,因此美元本位制下的美国金融政策也具有霸权特征。美元本位制下美国的金融政策主要表现为:强势美元政策、“重内轻外”的金融政策、金融自由化政策、浮动汇率政策以及长期低利率政策。美元本位制带来全球信用膨胀尤其是美元资产的膨胀,其结果只能是美元币值长期走弱,然而这与美国推行的强势美元政策是相矛盾的,就是由于这种矛盾才促发了次贷危机并最终演变为全面的金融危机;美元本位制下,美国借助于美元的本位货币地位,采取了注重国内经济均衡,轻视外部经济均衡的金融政策。这种政策结果是,美元过度供给,国内信用膨胀。然而,信用泡沫总有破灭的一天,次贷危机的爆发就是信用过度膨胀所导致;在美元本位制下,美国引领着全球金融自由化的浪潮。金融自由化导致的一个最直接的结果就是金融创新的过度。在过度金融创新的刺激下,次贷以及与次贷有关的金融衍生品也迅速被创造并不断成倍地放大。当这些创新产品的本源——次级住房信贷资产出现问题时,建立在这个基础之上的金融衍生工具市场就犹如空中楼阁,轰然坍塌下来;美国之所以长期采取低利率政策,其根源也在于美元本位制,根源于美元本位制下美元的特殊回流机制。四、美元本位制下的经济结构失衡造成了美国的金融危机尽管对美国经济结构的严重失衡有诸多解释,但笔者认为,美国经济结构失衡的最深刻的根源在于美元本位制。因此,如果说美国经济结构的严重失衡是美国金融危机发生的诱因的话,那么,美元本位制就是美国金融危机爆发的根源所在。就因为美元本位制,才造成美国的过度消费和长期存在“双赤字”局面;就因为美元本位制,才导致美国经济的“去工业化”和虚拟经济过度化。然而,不管是美元本位制下的过度消费,还是“双赤字”,最终都将难以长期维持,当这种局面越来越不能维持时,危机的发生也就理所当然了。同样的是,实体经济与虚拟经济严重失衡,实体经济过度虚拟化也蕴含着巨大的金融风险,当这种风险积累到了一定程度时,金融危机的爆发也难以避免。现代金融危机越来越具有国际传染性。美元本位制下美国金融危机的国际传染有其独特性。不同货币本位制下的金融危机传染呈现不同的特征,具体来说,在金本位制和布雷顿森林货币体系下,金融危机国际传染的结果表现为区域性的或全球性的通货紧缩。而在美元本位制下,由于浮动利率长期化、国际收支调节机制的不健全化以及美元霸权的存在,金融危机发生、传输的频率和速度日益加快,尤其是20世纪的90年代,危机的发生更加频繁,影响的范围也在日益扩大。并且,在美元本位制下,美国金融危机的国际传染呈现出“美国咳嗽,全球着凉”的经济现象。在美元本位制下,凭借美国自身经济实力,美国金融危机的国际传染主要通过货币增发、美元贬值、大宗商品涨价、全球通货膨胀、债券投资价值缩水以及心理预期等方式向世界转嫁金融危机。更多还原

【Abstract】 Financial crisis is the most traditional themes in the economic literature.Like a ghost,the development of the world economy has been accompanied by the financial crisis in the long river of human development history.Every time,the financial crisis has left economists endless thoughts.The theme of this paper is the formation and transmission mechanism of the U.S. financial crisis under the dollar standard.Since the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis which has developed into a comprehensive financial crisis,many academic researches have been carried out,and have achieved some encouraging results.At present,people mainly concerned about the causes or formation mechanism of financial crisis.From 2007 to the early of 2008, economists mainly analyzed the occurrence or the formation mechanism of sub-prime crisis.However,with the deepening of the sub-prime crisis which gradually becoming a global financial crisis,economists have begun to amend and develop the original understanding of sub-loan crisis from different perspectives.The explanation of the cause or formation mechanism of financial crisis includes:(1)U.S.financial crisis was rooted in U.S.monetary policy;(2)U.S.financial crisis was attributed to sub-prime and the deluge of financial derivatives;(3)U.S.financial crisis was related to the existence of key regulatory system defects of the U.S.government;(4)U.S. financial crisis was caused by the global economic imbalance,and it was the product of global economic imbalances;(5)U.S.financial crisis was rooted in the serious imbalance in the economic structure of the United States,especially a serious imbalance of the real economy and the virtual economy;(6)U.S.financial crisis was attributed to China’s“currency manipulation”or the“over-saving”of the emerging market countries which was represented by China.Among the above six explanations, the first five are comparatively objective and scientific,and they have thoughtful analysis to some extent.It is undeniable that the first five explanations reveal the direct causes or incentives of the U.S.financial crisis.However,they are also questioned:What decides the U.S.monetary policy?What factors are contributed to sub-prime crisis and the deluge of financial derivatives?As the most advanced, perfect and best-regulated financial markets in the world,and the largest and the most international financial sector in the world,why the regulatory system of U.S. government departments now seems so obvious deficiencies?What are the causes of global economic imbalances and the serious imbalance in economic structure of U.S.? If deeply thinking these issues,the first five explanations will not fully explain the financial crisis in the United States.The sixth explanation is only a reflection of bias and ignorance of some scholars and politicians of Western,and it is nothing more than just clearing the charges for Wall Street.The author believes that the U.S.financial crisis is rooted in the dollar standard.Main points are as follows:Firstly,The contemporary financial crisis,particularly the financial crisis in developing countries is closely related to the dollar standard.Reviewing the research literatures about financial crisis,very few analyzes every financial crisis with the perspective of the monetary standard.However,through the analysis of the regulation of dollar standard and operational mechanism,the game rules,as well as the defects in dollar standard,and the frequent international financial crisis since dollar standard was established,the author concludes that dollar standard can not shirk its responsibility for the occurrence of the recent international financial crisis.With this logical starting point,the author believes that dollar standard is the rooted cause of the outbreak of the current U.S.financial crisis.This is not only the basic viewpoint of this dissertation,but also the innovation in it.Secondly,the inherent vulnerability of dollar standard leads to the U.S.financial crisis.Inherent vulnerability of dollar standard is shown in the following:lack of self-adjustment mechanism,new Triffin problems,missing of lender role of last resort, as well as the instability of U.S.hegemonic system.It is such inherent vulnerability of dollar standard that lead to the dollar becoming the world’s largest risky factor,as well as dollar exchange rate fluctuations and a long-term down trend.It is just such reasons that triggered the U.S.credit crisis,as well as the dilemma of“paradox of dollars”and eventually led to the outbreak of the U.S.financial crisis.Thirdly,monetary policy under the dollar standard led to the U.S.financial crisis.The author believes that the essence of dollar standard is U.S.hegemony,so the U.S.financial policy under dollar standard also has the characteristics of hegemony. The U.S.financial policy under dollar standard includes:strong dollar policy, financial policy of“heavy inner and light outside”,financial liberalization policy, floating exchange rate policy,as well as long-term low interest rate policy.Dollar standard brought about the global credit expansion,in particular,the expansion of dollar assets.The result is a long-term weakening of the dollar.However,it is contradictory with the strong dollar policy.As a result,it is this contradiction that triggered the sub-prime crisis and eventually evolved into a comprehensive financial crisis.Under dollar standard,with the status of currency-based dollar,the United States adopted a financial policy focusing on the domestic economy balance while ignoring the external economic balance.This policy has resulted in excessive supply of dollars,as well as expansion of domestic credit.However,the credit bubble will inevitably burst one day,and the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis is caused by the excessive expansion of credit.The United States leads the global wave of financial liberalization under dollar standard.Excessive financial innovation is one of the most direct results caused by financial liberalization.In the stimulation of excessive financial innovation,sub-prime and related financial derivatives are created rapidly and constantly multiplied.When secondary housing credit assets which are the origin of these innovative products arising problem,market built on the basis of the financial derivatives collapsed down like castles in the air.The United States has taken a long-term low interest rate policy,which is rooted in the dollar standard,as well as the special return mechanism of the dollar standard.Fourthly,the imbalance of the U.S.economic structure under dollar standard caused the financial crisis.Although there are many explanations to the serious imbalance of the U.S. economy structure,the author believes that the structural imbalance of the U.S. economy is most profoundly rooted in dollar standard.Therefore,if we say that the serious imbalance of the U.S.economy structure is the incentive of the U.S.financial crisis,then,dollar standard is the source of the outbreak of the U.S.financial crisis.It is just because of dollar standard that has caused over-consumption and long-term“double deficit”in the United States,and also led to“de-industrialization”and economic over-virtualization.However,regardless of over-consumption or“double deficits”under dollar standard,eventually it will be difficult to maintain.When this situation can not be maintained for long,the occurrence of the crisis is inevitable. Similarly,there is serious imbalance between real economy and virtual economy,and over-virtualization of the real economy also contains huge financial risks.When such risk is accumulated to certain degree,it is difficult to avoid the outbreak of the financial crisis.More and more modern financial crisis is contagious in the international arena. Under dollar standard,the international contagion of the U.S.financial crisis has its own unique characteristics.Under the different monetary standard,financial crisis has different contagion characteristics.Specifically,under gold standard and Bretton Woods monetary system,international contagion of financial crisis is reflected in the regional or global deflation.Based on the dollar standard,as a result of long-term floating interest rates,unsound adjustment mechanism of international balance of payments,as well as the existence of U.S.hegemony,the occurrence of financial crisis,transmission frequency and speed are accelerating,especially in the 1990s,the financial crisis was becoming more frequent and increasingly widespread.Moreover, under dollar standard,international contagion of the U.S.financial crisis shows a economic phenomenon of“United States coughs,the world catch a cold”.Under dollar standard,with the economic strength of the United States itself,the U.S. financial crisis,mainly through currency issuance,depreciation of the dollar,bulk commodity prices rising,global inflation,the diminution in value of bond investments, psychological expectations etc.,passed on to the world.更多还原