【作者】 沈琪；

【导师】 徐建华；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 地图学与地理信息系统， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 论文在梳理已有生态建设相关理论的基础上,诠释了崇明生态岛建设的内涵、目标及意义,并对岛屿可持续发展、岛屿生态经济、岛屿生态承载力的研究内容进行了挖掘,明确提出了“岛屿生态承载力”的概念。进而,通过借鉴已有的生态承载力、生态岛建设复合模型以及生态风险评价研究成果,应用遥感技术、地理信息系统技术、系统动力学方法与空间数据挖掘技术,建立崇明生态岛建设空间决策支持模型。本文构建的空间决策支持模型不仅能对区域进行整体决策分析,而且能够实现同一区域内不同区位差异化发展的定位和定量决策分析。文章的研究结论和研究方法对岛屿空间开发策略的制定具有一定的应用价值,具体体现在以下几个方面:(1)提出了岛屿生态承载力的概念。在梳理可持续发展、生态经济、生态承载力、生态风险评价等生态岛建设相关理论的基础上,对生态岛建设的内涵、目标和意义进行释义,通过分析岛屿可持续发展、岛屿生态经济、岛屿生态承载力等的内涵和外延,对岛屿生态承载力这一概念进行了较系统的描述。(2)改进了空间句法,并将其扩展应用于水系网络的空间形态分析。依据水系网络的特点,将AECGIS弧段的概念引入到空间句法,对其空间分割方法进行了改进。同时,通过增加连通标示点,在模型中真实反应水系网络的现实状态,并以计算得到的崇明水系集成程度的空间插值结果为辅助信息,建立了研究区统计数据空间化模型。(3)改进了生态承载力预测方法,建立空间系统动力学模型。将传统的基于区域整体指标进行仿真的SD模型改进为基于单元格的模型,同时将CLUE-S模型模拟预测的土地利用变化信息作为外部判断数据输入改进后的SD模型,依据单元格土地利用属性的变化,调整该单元格SD模型初始变量的赋值,实现了从空间和时间上同步模拟区域生态承载力的变化。(4)尝试将空间聚类方法应用于区域综合生态风险的空间分布提取,提高了评价结果的客观性。在生态承载力指标空间预测的基础上,从数据本身的空间信息和属性信息的共性或类似性出发,运用空间聚类分析方法——WaveCluster对区域综合生态风险的多维影响因素进行了空间聚类,获得了研究区综合生态风险度的时空分布结果,减少了传统生态风险评价方法的主观性。(5)设计了“经济—资源协调型”和“经济增长型”两种基于不同发展理念的发展模式,并运用改进后的空间SD模型对两种发展模式的发展前景进行模拟。模拟结果表明,“经济—资源协调型”发展模式下2006～2020年区域的生态承载力优于以经济增长为绝对重心的“经济增长型”发展模式下的区域生态承载力;前者的区域可持续发展能力更强,且其区域人口、经济指标均表现出向长江南支侧沿岸城镇集聚的特点。(6)运用改进模型通过对区域综合生态风险的模拟和评估,发现可承载人口数量较少、环境容量低、自然灾害危险性较高的区域综合生态风险较高;“经济增长型”发展模式下的高风险和较高风险的区域面积均大于“经济—资源协调型”发展模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis addressed the meaning of Chongming Island ecological construction through interpreting the relative theories of ecological construction as well as objectives and significances of the island development,Further more,the concept of“island ecological carrying capacity”was presented by analyzing the island sustainable development,island eco-economy and island carrying capacity.An appropriate Spatial decision support model for the Chongming Island ecological construction was developed using Remote sensing technology,combined with GIS, System Dynamics method and spatial data mining technology in the basis of existing research results of ecological carrying capacity,ecological construction composite model and ecological risk assessment.The established model not only can be used in regional global decision-making,but also can be used in inner sub-regional decision-making which have the different location and development target.This paper’s research results and research methods are useful for formulating the reasonable policy of the island spatial development.The results of related research are mainly showed in the following aspects:(1)The concept of“island ecological carrying capacity”was put forward.Based on the analysis of the related theories such as the sustainable development,ecological economy,ecological carrying capacity and ecological risk assessment,the connotation,target and significance of the ecological island construction has been forwarded and extension meanings of island sustainable development,eco-island economy and the island ecological carrying capacity were analyzed,further more, the ecological island carrying capacity was described systematically.(2)The improved the Space Synax has been applied for the spatial form analysis of Water system network.The concept of“arc”was introduced into Space Synax to improve its Space partition method according to the hydrological network. Meanwhile,through adding connectivity marking point,real status of hydrological network has been simulated and data specialization model has been developed based on the interpolation result of Chongming hydrological system map.(3)The ecological carrying capacity of forecasting methods was improved and spatial SD model was developed.Regional indicator-based SD simulation model was replaced by grid-based model.The land-use information simulated by CLUE-S model was used as an external judgement as well as input data to the improved SD model,and the initial grid assignment variables of the SD model were modified according to the grid attributes of land-use change,which attained to simulate the regional ecological carrying capacity change both in spatial and temporal scale.(4)Spatial Clustering Method has been applied for the spatial distribution of regional integrated ecological risk extraction and this trial has been proved more objective. Based on spatial forecasting of the indicators of ecological carrying capacity and homogeneity of spatial information and attribution information,WaveCluster was used for spatial cluster analysis about the Multi-dimensional factors of regional ecological risk and obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution of the regional ecological risk,which decrease the subjective of ecological risk evaluation(5)The improved SD model were used to simulated the develop respect under two development scenario models-the“economy-resources coordination”and“economic growth”.and the results showed that:in the scenario of“economy-resources coordination”,the ecological carrying capacity is superior than the“economic growth”mode which emphasize the growth of economic during 2006～2020.Former regional sustainable development capacity is more stronger and the regional population,economic indicators have shown to agglomeration to urban at the south side of the Yangtze River.(6)Ecological risk under the two regional development model showed that the higher integrated ecological risk,the lower sustainable capacity as well as low capacity of the environment and high natural disasters area.And high risk area under“economic growth”development mode is greater than“economy-resources coordination”development mode更多还原