【作者】 张威；

【导师】 余伟民；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 国际冷战史， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 1971年南亚危机是冷战转型时代一次具有重要国际影响的地区危机。此次危机不仅造就了次大陆的新政治格局,而且也对美、苏、中三大国的对外战略以及战略导向影响下的大国关系调整产生深远影响。在处理美巴关系、应对南亚危机的过程中,尼克松政府以现实主义为美国外交政策的至上政治哲学。但美国无法摆脱地缘政治利益与反对专制,鼓吹自由、民主、人权的道德主义观念的选择困境。对叶海亚政权的“偏袒”实质上体现了尼克松政府南亚战略安排的结构性紧张:全球战略理念与地区主义考量的矛盾;现实政治选择与冷战道义目标的矛盾。本文以美、印、巴等国现有的南亚危机和美巴关系史专著和论文为研究起点,以美、印、巴、孟等国的解密外交文献和档案汇编为史料基础,运用历史唯物主义的研究方法,并适当借助西方国际关系理论,以冷战的“双重逻辑”——国际性与本土性作为立论基点,将1971年南亚危机为阐释冷战进程中地区危机与冲突内在特性的平台,把全球层面的美苏中三大国权势斗争、区域层面的印巴争斗、巴基斯坦国内层面的西巴军人政权与东巴激进民族主义集团的殊死对抗这三大变量的多维互动作为新的研究框架,展现大国的对外战略与地区角色政治行为的双向搏弈,进而分析巴基斯坦国内制度缺陷所引发的政治动荡是如何外溢到国际领域,又是如何引起包括美国在内的区外大国介入,激化冲突导致局部战争。论文分为绪言、正文和结论三个部分。绪言部分系统梳理了1971年南亚危机时期美巴关系研究的学术史,并由此导出研究目的、选题意义和篇章结构。结论紧扣绪言提出的研究目的,对正文部分的史实分析进行提炼总结,深化论文主题。正文分为五个章节展开论述。第一章通过对南亚危机的国际背景与地区根源进行分析,为后面的展开研究奠定基础。全球冷战的大气候和南亚地区内部印巴之间的矛盾相互影响产生了冷战时代南亚战略格局的基本雏形。从总体上看,外部力量的渗透与地区内部冲突交织纠结造就了苏印与美巴对峙的格局。面对涌动勃勃生机的世界新变化,尼克松和他的对外政策顾问基辛格着手调整美国的对外战略,在新的战略规划中,南亚、巴基斯坦在美国全球战略棋局中的定位都将发生变化。尽管1960年代末期的世界正在孕育着革新式的政治经济变动,南亚次大陆和巴基斯坦国内却在对峙和动荡中向暴力和战乱的深渊逐渐滑进。第二章主要研究了危机爆发之前,巴基斯坦政治局势和美巴之间基于各自利益需要的彼此借重。对于再次实行军法管制的巴基斯坦,国家将往何处去是一个急待解决的政治问题。叶海亚·汗许诺举行大选,为迅速恢复巴基斯坦宪政创造条件。在经历政治纷争与天灾人祸之后,巴基斯坦建国以来的首次大选如期举行。但大选的顺利举行仅仅只是巴基斯坦宪政民主的起步,随后的政治纷争表明军人政权、西巴与东巴之间的利益纷争、观念分歧难以趋同。相较风雨飘摇的巴基斯坦,美国正积极开掘“解冻”中美关系的外交渠道,扭转相对于苏联的战略颓势。而尼克松和基辛格最为倚重,并最终取得突破性成果的是巴基斯坦渠道。如何在推进巴基斯坦渠道有效运作的同时,适时关注并切实应对巴基斯坦的内政危机是尼克松政府必须审慎思量的重要问题。第三章主要考察了危机爆发之后对南亚局势造成的巨大震荡,尼克松政府在危机初期的政策考量,特别是对巴基斯坦政策背后的战略动因。叶海亚·汗在初步稳定东巴形势之后,着手他的政治重建计划,力图抹去人联在东巴政治图景中的印记。但东巴民众的抵触情绪却丝毫未有缓解。与此同时,难民问题出现并有不断增强之势,东巴内乱“外溢”成为印巴之间的跨国危机,印度采取公开外交与秘密行动相结合的方针,公开造势申明支持和同情东巴的反抗斗争,默许建立“孟加拉临时政府”,与叶海亚·汗军人政权对抗。危机爆发之后,尼克松政府的政策取向有一个从不介入、不卷入向有限介入的转变过程。在确定将支持巴基斯坦政府作为政策底线的情况下,如何在有效缓解东巴危机的同时,推进全球战略调整而不受关键国家—巴基斯坦内部动荡的影响,是危机初期白宫最高决策者政策制定的基本出发点。当然,考察这一时期的美国危机政策,我们还应当注意到政策最终的确立是各部门、各官僚机构相互权衡、斗争并进行政治妥协的结果,特别是尼克松——基辛格掌控下的国家安全委员会与国务院、中央情报局、甚至国会都存有巨大的分歧。第四章是论文的重点章节。在巴基斯坦渠道圆满地完成了其历史使命的同时,中美秘密外交浮出水面转变为震惊世界的“冲击外交”。这一“冲击外交”是一场推动冷战转型的“外交革命”,它既开启了冷战的新时代,但它本身也是代价和风险都相当之大的外交举措,加速了苏印走向联盟的进程,并使南亚危机由于大国竞争的注入而斗争更趋激烈化。虽然在难民问题,东巴政治和解问题上,尼克松试图处心积虑地化解危机,但这些努力都归于失败,南亚“火药桶”一触即发。面对战争威胁的日益临近,处于内外压力之下,尼克松政府最终作出停止对巴军售之决定。虽然极力避免战争,加大对战争挑起者的惩罚力度,并作好针对战争爆发的分析评估是尼克松政府在危机升级阶段的政策表现,但上述政策表现是在“偏袒”巴基斯坦方针既定的前提下提出的,在次大陆恩仇难泯之际,美国的政策难以阻止战争脚步的临近。第五章集中论述了第三次印巴战争和战争之后,南亚国际关系新格局的形成。第三次印巴战争是1971年南亚危机对抗竞争的顶峰。历时14天的战争呈现出战局发展、巴基斯坦国内政治变动与大国外交搏弈角逐综合互动的特点。因此,这场战争既是印度和巴基斯坦这两个夙敌的第三次较量,也是美、苏、中三大国围绕次大陆而展开的权势斗争和战略竞争。就1971年战争的国际影响来看,它促进了南亚国际关系新格局的出现。一方面,美、苏、中战略大三角是冷战转型时代国际格局中最重要的三角关系。它的形成发展对南亚的形势起着不可或缺的作用,直接地影响南亚的力量平衡,使南亚地区均势深入发展,巩固并强化了苏印与美巴的战略对立;另一方面,战争之后的南亚地区格局总体上呈现为印巴之间的不对称均势。印巴之间意识形态、国家理念、国家安全等领域的全方位直接对抗并未消除,但印巴愈发清楚地认识到通过战争手段既无法实现自身的对外战略目标,也无法解决克什米尔问题。两国不得不对战争进行反思,对诉诸战争的手段采取更加克制的态度,如何在核时代,通过战争之外的方式获取对对方的优势地位是印巴在1971年战争之后考量战略竞争的重要问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The crisis of South Asia happened in 1971 was a regional crisis in the era of Cold War Transformation which had vital international influence.Not only did the crisis mould a new political pattern in the sub-continent,but it also influenced profoundly the foreign strategies of America,China,and Soviet Union as well as the regulations of relations of great powers caused by strategic orientation.The Nixon government took priority of Realism as the political philosophy in its foreign policy when dealing with U.S.-Pakistan relation.But the United States could make itself out of the dilemma to make a choice between geographic politics and the idea of Moralism which was opposed to dictatorship and preached liberty,democracy and human rights,Tilt to the regime of Yahya Khan essentially reflected American structural tension in its strategic arrangement in South Asia,its contradiction in considering global strategic logos and Regionalism,the contradiction between the realistic political choice and the moral goals of the Cold War.This dissertation starts with the available literatures in the U.S.,India,and Pakistan about the crisis in South Asia and the history of the U.S-Pakistan relation, and then bases its arguments on the declassified archives from U.S.,Pakistan,India and Bangladesh.especially the U.S.declassified archives including Foreign Relations of United States,CIA files,The Richard M.Nixon National Security Files 1969-1974:India-Pakistan War of 1971,Microfilm Reels and so on.This paper uses the“Double Logics”of the Cold War:International and Native,and then puts the global level of the U.S.-Soviet power struggle.This dissertation studies under the new framework of the dimensional interaction within three variables,namely,Regional dimensions of the struggle between India and Pakistan,the internal dimension of the desperate confrontation between the West Pakistan Junta and the radical nationalism group of East Pakistan.Through the analysis,we could find how the interaction of great power’s foreign strategy and regional state’s political behavior,and then we could also study the reason why Pakistan’s domestic system deficiencies,which were caused by political turmoil spill over to the international arena,for which the great powers to intervene and local war was caused.The dissertation is divided into three parts,namely,introduction,body and conclusion.The introduction makes a systematic review of the academic research history of U.S-Pakistan relation in the 1971 South Asia crisis,based on this,the research objectives;the meanings the topic selection and discourse patterns of the thesis are explained.Closed linked with research objectives proposed in the introduction,the conclusion part makes a concise summary on the analysis of historical facts presented in the body part,which strengthens the theme of the thesis. In addition,the body part is exposited in five chaptersThe first chapter makes a foundation for the following chapters by analyzing the international background and regional causes for the south Asia Crisis.The rudiment of the strategic pattern in the south Asia in the period of Cold War was caused by the global cold war atmosphere and the conflict between India and Pakistan in the region of south Asia.Observed form a global perspective,the conflicting situation between the partners of Soviet Union and India and the partners of the United States and Pakistan was caused by intertwined permeation of outer force and regional conflicts in south Asia.Facing the globally surging political changes,Nixon and his foreign counselor Kissinger put South Asia and Pakistan in new positions in their new strategic plans when they undertook regulating American foreign strategies.The sub-Continent of south Asia and Pakistan slipped into the abyss of violence and war in the domestic state of conflicts and chaos despite the fact that globally a reformed political and economic alteration was gestated in the 1960s.The second chapter studies the political situation in Pakistan and how the United States and Pakistan relied on each other from the consideration of their respective benefits before the outbreak of the crisis.In order to pave the way for the Constitutions in Pakistan,Yahya Khan promised to hold a general election,which was held as scheduled after long time suffering from series of political turmoil in addition to natural and man-make calamities since the foundation of the state of Pakistan.But the smooth general election could only be regarded as the initial steps towards the Constitution in Pakistan;the subsequent political disputes showed the difficulties to merge the beneficial and ideological discrepancy between the military regime and West Pakistan and East Pakistan.Compared with the turbulence in Pakistan,the United States was making every effort to excavate the diplomatic channels which thawed the Sino-U.S.relationship,reversing the disadvantaged situation to Soviet Union.What Nixon relied heavily on and eventually made breakthrough on was Pakistan Channel.An essential issue for the Nixon government to consider was how to deal with domestic political crisis in Partisan and maintain the valid function of the Pakistan Channel simultaneously.The third chapter investigates the vibrating political situations after the crisis and Nixon government political considerations at the initial stage of the crisis,especially the underlying strategic motivation of American foreign policy to Pakistan.Yahya Khan began to undertake his political reconstruction plans after initially stabilizing the situations in East Pakistan,trying to remove the marks left in minds of Pasta tins by the East Pakistan political prospects,but unfortunately,the resistance from the civilians in East Pakistan was not eased at all.At the same time,the problem of refugees got more and more serious,and the domestic violence overflowed the boundary of the territory and escalated into transnational crisis.The India government adopted the guidelines of combining public diplomacy and secret actions, and confronted publicly with the military regime led by Yahya Khan by declaring its support and sympathy to the resistant fighting of East Pakistan and acquiescing the establishment of the Provisional Government of Bangladesh.After the outbreak of the crisis,the Nixon Administration’s policy transform from nonintervention to a limited intervention.In determining the Government of Pakistan as the bottom line of crisis policy,how effective alleviating the crisis,also promoting the global strategy through the Key State-Pakistan was the basic policy starting point.Of course,as we study the crisis policy of the United States,we should also be noted that the establishment of policy,which was the result of political compromise among White House,National Security Council,which was controlled by Nixon-Kissinger,and the Department of State,the Department of Defense,CIA,and even the Congress.The fourth Chapter highlights the dissertation.After Kissinger’s secret visit to China,the Sino-U.S.secret diplomacy that shocked the world become the“Surprise Diplomacy”.It was the“Diplomatic Revolution”of the Cold War,and then opened a new era of the Cold War.But it was also the diplomatic initiatives which had considerable costs and risks,and then accelerated the process of the Alliance between the Soviet Union and India.At the refugee problem,the political reconciliation about East Pakistan,Nixon deliberately planned attempt to defuse the crisis,but these efforts failed,and South Asia“powder keg”hair-triggered.Faced with the growing threat of war draws near,the Nixon Administration made the ultimate decision to suspend arms sales to Pakistan.Nixon had every effort to avoid war,including the punishment to the state which provoked the war effort and the analytical assessment for the outbreak of the war at the escalation of the crisis phase,but the performance of the above-mentioned policies were difficult to stop the war approaching pace, especially the“Tilt”Policy had worked.The fifth Chapter unfolds the Third Indo-Paki War and the new international structure of South Asia after war.Third India-Pakistan war was the peak of the crisis. The war lasted for 14 days,which showed game interactive features about the development of the war,Pakistan’s domestic political changes,and great-power diplomacy.Therefore,this war is not only the third war between India and Pakistan, but also the power struggle and strategic competition around the subcontinent among the United States,the Soviet Union,and China.As we said the international impact of the war,it has promoted the emergence of a new balance of power in South Asia.On the one hand,Strategic triangle formed and became the most important international structure of the triangular relationship in the period of the Cold War.Its formation was the development of the situation in South Asia plays an indispensable role,directly affect the balance of power in South Asia,so that balance of power in-depth development of the South Asian region,strengthening the consolidation between the Soviet Union-India and the US-Pakistan strategic confrontation;On the other hand, after the war The overall pattern of the South Asian region formed the asymmetry balance of power between India and Pakistan.For the two states,although direct confrontation about ideology,philosophy,national security is not the elimination,but India and Pakistan also recognize more clearly through the means of war can not achieve its strategic objectives of external and can not solve the Kashmir issue. Between the two countries have to reflect on war,the means of resorting to war to take a more restrained attitude,how in the nuclear era,through the war,access to each other’s dominant position are the India-Pakistan war in 1971,after the consideration of important strategic competition.更多还原