【作者】 陆伟；

【导师】 胡礼忠；

【作者基本信息】 上海外国语大学 ， 国际关系， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 [内容提要]昭和前期的日本过度扩张是国际关系史上的一个重大谜团,也是现实主义范式中的一个重要异例。文章将历史学、政治学、国际关系学的基本理论结合起来,在日本政治体制和权力结构的背景下,分析天皇、宫中集团、内阁、外务省、陆军、海军、新官僚等决策参与主体权力的真实含义和利益来源,并通过展现彼此之间互动关系的重大案例,剖析他们在对外政策决定过程中的角色、作用和行为方式,从而寻找到导致日本过度扩张的国内政治机理。研究表明,日本特有的政治体制构造——单极体制下的多元结构内含的无责任体系、无差别化分权构造、无统制化运作管理等三大特点极易导致昭和前期日本走上极端扩张道路的原因,是通过由它们所规定的日本独特的组织关系、决策机制和运作过程产生作用的。权力的正常运转仰赖于各政治势力之间形成的外溢(天皇授权)、内聚(各辅弼集团向维护天皇大权的目标分担职责)、纵向依存、横向制衡“同心圆”似的架构。权力分散和制衡,使得官僚机构之间的竞争很难以政策“垄断者”的出现收场,决策得以形成是因为存在着机会窗口和政策窗口。参与决策的主要行为体不仅为他们的组织利益接受机会窗口逻辑,而且他们在作出决策时也充满了“窗口”思维。当联盟成员都不愿意成为被“机会窗口”淘汰的“牺牲者”时,相互之间的政策辩论越来越强化这样一种意识,即夸大进攻性或扩张主义战略所可能带来的成功,而低估防御性措施与收缩力量的成功希望。而政策窗口形成过程中联盟成员为实现互助而导致的权宜之计和国家政策的内在矛盾,往往通过相互容忍对方政策的负面效应,以方案的不断调整和更新加以解决,最终形成的综合性方案,与任何单个利益集团的观念和计划相比,在过度承诺方面必然要极端得多。在上述因素影响下,日本对外决策运作基本上呈现出两种模式——临机性合议决策模式和暗箱式指导决策模式。从国内政治变量的视角出发,结合官僚政治理论和窗口理论来剖析日本对外决策的国内政治过程,是破解过度扩张极端化的“昭和案例”最有效的方法:能够在给定的时空界限内,通过跨机构的系统验证,更好解释日本政治体制的结构为什么极易促成决策联盟成员者的互助,以及这种互助很难产生在帝国成本上升时学会收缩力量的内在调节能力。进而在此基础上,为准确研判日本式过度扩张的强度和特点的国内政治起源,提供有效的分析框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 The over-expansion of Japan during the early period of Mikado Showa was a big enigma in the modern history of international relations. It’s also an important variation in the paradigm of realism. Integrating the basic analysis approaches of history, politics and international relations, my dissertation will analyze the real connotation and the source of interests of such main bodies of Japanese decision makers as Mikado, the Royal Court Group, the Japanese Cabinet, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Military Headquarters of Japanese Land Army, the Military Headquarters of Japanese Navy, and the new Japanese bureaucrats under the particular Japanese political system and the political power structure. Through expounding certain major cases of their interactions, my dissertation will explore their roles, functions and ways of behavior in the process of foreign policy decision making, thus finding the domestic political causes that had led to the over-expansion of Japan during that period.My study indicates that the Japanese characteristic political system structure, featured as an irresponsible system, an indiscriminate decentralizing formation and an absence of unified administration which was embedded in the diversified structure under the unipolar power system, was the primary cause leading to the road of extreme over-expansion of Japan during the early period of Mikado Showa, and that the structure functioned with the help of the typical institutional relations, the decision-making regime and the operation of political process of Japan during that period. The normal operation of political power depended on the state of a concentric framework which was manifested such power interaction patterns as "power spillover" (the authorization of power by Mikado), "power cohesion" (the fulfillment of obligation by various adjuvant groups),"vertical power interdependence", and "horizontal balance of power". The decentralization and balance of political power made it difficult for the competition of bureaucratic organizations to end with a monopoly of power. In addition, the decision-making of different political actors can be contributed to the existence of "the opportunity widow" and "the policy window". Major actors that participated in political decision-making tended to be accepting the logic of "the opportunity widow" and employing the widow way of thinking while making political decisions. Since each member of the political alliance was not willing to become the victim of "the opportunity widow", their debates on state policies inclined to consolidate a tendency, i.e., overestimating the possibility of success brought by offensive and overspread strategy while underestimating the possibility of success brought by defensive measures and the strategy of self-restraint. Under the circumstances of this structure, the problem of substantial contradiction between state policy and makeshift resulted from the mutual aid of members of political alliance in the process of formation of "the policy window" was generally settled by the readjustment and innovation of policies with the cost of mutually accepting the negative effects of the policy ideas of the other side and formed the final comprehensive scheme. Therefore, the final scheme was generally more extreme than the possible idea and plan made by any individual interest group in terms of its promise on over-expansion.From the perspective of the domestic politics variable, the analysis of domestic politics process on Japanese foreign policy decision-making by employing the approaches of bureaucratic theory and window theory will be the most effective way for us to find the reason of "Mikado Showa Case" that was featured as the over-expansion of Japan. This kind of analysis approach is helpful for us to explain why it was so easy for the Japanese political system structure to propel the mutual aid of the different members of the political alliance under the given space-time conditions and to understand the difficulties of forming an inherent capability of readjustment so as to take the measures of self-restraint under the circumstances of the rise of empire cost. On the basis of the research, my dissertation will provide an effective analysis framework for us to precisely comprehend the domestic political cause for the intensity and characteristic of the over-expansion of Japan during the early period of Mikado Showa.更多还原