住宅价格的多因素动态分析研究

【作者】 杨冬宁；

【导师】 李洁明；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 国民经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 住宅是居民日常居住生活的场所，也是大部分居民一生最为重要的财富，因此住宅价格的波动直接影响了居民福利。同时，随着我国改革开放以来对住房制度的改革，目前房地产行业已经成为我国经济发展的支柱产业之一，而其中住宅市场是房地产开发企业经营的重要场所，住宅价格的波动则直接影响房地产行业运营和国民经济发展。因此，住宅价格波动对于我国民生和经济发展都有着十分重要的影响。在分析住宅价格波动过程中，最主要是界定影响住宅价格的因素，并且通过分析这些因素与住宅价格之间的动态关系，最终预测和掌握住宅价格波动的规律。本文试图通过对影响住宅价格波动的多种因素进行动态分析，从而分析住宅价格波动的原因及趋势。本文在使用2005-2008年相关指标的月度数据的基础上，试图通过对住宅的一般价格的宏观影响因素和以住宅特征价格为基础的微观影响因素的分析，并通过多元回归方程组分析，配合协整分析以及Granger检验的方法验证相关宏微观因素与住宅价格波动之间的关系以及其影响机制。本文共分为7个部分，在第一章介绍完本文的研究背景、意义，研究对象，研究思路和方法。第二部分主要通过对国内外对住宅价格影响相关因素的文献综述，对住宅价格波动的影响因素进行归类和分析。基于住宅基本属性，本文将影响住宅价格的因素分为两大部分，一类是影响住宅作为消费品的因素，包括宏观因素和微观因素两部分。主要包括土地价格为主的供给性因素，人口和收入等为代表的需求性因素，经济增长带来的宏观性因素，以及房产自身特征所构成的微观因素，并结合相关的供求模型、特征价格模型进行分析。另一类则是通过住宅作为投资工具的角度，分析内外部货币性因素对住宅价格波动的影响，并通过泡沫理论模型进行分析。第三部分本文对改革开放以来，杭州市住宅市场规模不断发展，不同阶段住宅价格上涨的过程进行了分析和总结。明确了住房制度改革的对建立住宅市场的重要意义，并且解释和说明了自住房制度改革以来，各个阶段杭州市住宅价格上涨的原因，对金融危机后杭州市住宅价格波动的现状也进行了分析。第四部分通过应用特征价格法构建住宅价格指数模型，并在杭州实际交易的住宅中进行了随机抽样，选取500套已交易数据对模型进行实证分析。在实证分析的基础上，测定住宅价格指数各项指标的系数，并加入2005年至2008年的实际数据建立均质住宅价格及其指数。同时，分析了杭州市住宅市场发展过程中住宅自身特征变化对住宅价格的影响，编制的特征价格指数在剔除了这些影响因素后，反映了住宅价格根据市场供求和投资需求影响的变化，为进一步分析奠定了实证基础。本文的第五和第六两部分是基于消费视角和投资视角分别对杭州市住宅价格波动影响因素进行动态分析。从消费视角分析，住宅价格主要受到经济发展，土地供给和住宅建设的供给因素以及人口变化和居民收入水平的需求因素的影响。在研究过程中发现，住宅价格波动基本上遵循市场供需均衡的规律，但是，也出现了住宅价格与住宅供给量之间呈正相关的反常现象，本文研究认为是主要源于对住宅投资需求而引发的住宅市场上量价齐升的现象。从投资角度分析，住宅价格主要与利率、货币供给量、汇率以及国际游资等货币性冲击因素相关。通过实证分析发现，住宅价格与实际利率的波动成正相关关系，同样说明市场上流动性过剩，对住宅的投资和投机目的主导住宅价格的波动。对于开放经济下，住宅价格的影响因素分析发现，汇率和热钱流入是住宅价格的原因，而住宅价格并非汇率及热钱流入的原因，它们之间存在单向因果关系。最后，对本次研究存在的不足之处和将来的研究方向进行了探讨和分析。更多还原

【Abstract】 House is where residents live and enjoy their daily life,and it is their mostvaluable and important wealth as well,so the fluctuations in housing pricesdirectly affect the welfare of residents.At the same time,the real estateindustry has become one of the pillar industries in China’s economy since theaccomplishment of reform of the housing allocation system.Within the industry,residential house development market is an important place for operation,andhousing prices plays a critical role in the real estate industry and nationaleconomic development.Therefore,fluctuations in housing prices play animportant role for the people’s livelihood and economic development in China.The most important thing in the analysis of fluctuations in housing prices is todefine the factors that affect housing prices,and based on the analysis ofthese factors,test the dynamic relationship among housing prices and theiraffecting factors,and predict and understand the pattern of fluctuations inhousing prices.This paper attempts to carry out a dynamic analysis of avariety of factors that influence the fluctuation in housing prices,and analysethe causes and trends of fluctuation in housing prices.By using the data of relevant indicators based on monthly frequency from2005 to 2008,the paper prospected to analyse the general price of housingimpacted by the macroeconomic factors and the hedonic prices impacted bythe microeconomic factors,and based on cointegration analysis of multipleregression equations and Granger causality test,the paper verified therelationship between housing prices fluctuation and its macro and microfactors and the mechanism.The paper is divided into seven parts.The first chapter introduced theresearch background,the significance of the study,research questions andmethodology.The second part is a literature review,which reviewed mainliteratures that research the impact on housing prices and their relevant factorsfrom domestic and foreign researchers.Based on the characteristics of house,this paper classified the impact factors into two categories that one treatedhouses as residential consumer goods and the other treated houses asinvestment goods.The consumer factors include macro-factors which are thesupply factors (such as land prices),factors such as population and income represented the demand factors,economic growth standing formacroeconomic factors,as well as micro-factors which is characteristics ofhouse.The analysis combined with the related models considering demandand supply and hedonic price model.The other view,which regards houses asinvestment instruments,analyses the house prices both from internal andexternal monetary factors impacted housing prices fluctuation by adopting thebubble model.The third part of the paper explained and concluded the continuousdevelopment and progress of Hangzhou real estate market since the China’sreform and opening up.The paper illuminated that housing allocation systemreform is the establishment of the housing market.The paper also explainedand analyse the characteristics of housing prices fluctuation in the variousstages of Hangzhou real estate market development from the housingallocation system reform.The impact that subprime financial crisis placed onthe housing price fluctuations in Hangzhou was also analysed.In chapter four,the paper formulated a price index model with theapplication of hedonic price theory,and the model has been empiricallyanalysed by randomly selecting 500 sets of actual transaction data inHangzhou.Based on the result of the empirical analysis,the paper calculatedthe hedonic housing price index by adding the monthly data from 2005 to 2008.Meanwhile,by excluding the impact from the characteristics of house,housingprices was purely impacted by market supply and demand and by the changesin investment demand.In this paper,the fifth and sixth parts were organised on the consumergoods perspective and investment perspective respectively.From theconsumer goods perspective,housing prices were impacted by the economicdevelopment,land supply and housing supply in the supply side,as well asdemographic changes and income levels of residents in the demand side.Thestudy found that fluctuations in housing prices basically follow the equivalenceof supply and demand,but a positive correlation between the volume ofhousing supply and housing prices is an abnormal phenomenon.The paperconsidered the situation primarily due to demand for residential investmentand lead to the volume of houses and housing prices rose at the same time.From an investment point of view,the housing prices were mainly impacted by monetary factors,such as interest rates,money supply,exchangerates and international capital flow.Based on the result of empirical analysis,the paper found that a positive correlation between housing prices and thevolatility of real interest rates,which also explain the situation of excess marketliquidity.It concluded that investment and speculative intention led to thefluctuations in housing prices.As an open economy,the paper found that theexchange rate and the inflow of‘hot money’is the cause of fluctuation inhousing prices,while housing prices is not the reason for exchange rate andthe the inflow of‘hot money’.Finally,the conclusion and future research are discussed.更多还原