上海能源消费与经济发展关系研究

【作者】 刘旖芸；

【导师】 王桂新；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 能源是人类赖以生存和发展不可缺少的物质基础，当今能源和经济发展已成为一个不可分割的整体。能源是国民经济的基础要素，能源的有效利用和合理消费关系到社会经济的可持续发展，能源消费量过快增长和能源利用低效率会阻碍社会经济的可持续发展。论文运用能源经济学和经济发展基本理论，分析了上海能源消费与经济发展的关系。主要运用了经济计量分析、结构解析和指标体系等方法，对能源消费与经济增长、产业结构、社会经济福利、经济和环境发展的关系进行了考察和分析；进而情景分析了未来经济发展，并预测了未来能源消费需求；最后分析了可持续发展目标下的节能可行性和节能途径。论文的主要内容和结论如下：第一，提出了本文研究的理论基础和理论框架，阐述了能源消费与经济发展的概念和相关理论。第二，以规范的计量经济方法检验了上海能源消费与经济增长之间的关系。向量自回归分析表明能源已成为经济增长过程中不可完全替代的限制性生产要素。协整分析表明上海能源消费和经济增长显示出长期的相关性和一致性，Granger因果检验证实了两者具有双向因果关系：不仅经济增长导致能源消费增加，能源消费反过来影响经济增长。通过对电力消费、三次产业能源消费与经济增长时间序列的实证分析，结果表明电力消费、第一产业、第三产业能源消费与经济增长存在长期协整性，但都不存在双向因果关系。第三，通过建立能源强度的分解模型，利用时间序列数据定量分析了上海产业结构以及工业行业结构变化对能源强度的影响方向和影响程度。分析结果表明，无论是产业结构还是工业行业结构变化对能源强度变化都有一定影响，但结构变化的贡献份额远小于效率变化贡献份额，而且有些年份对能源强度的下降起了阻碍作用。第四，考察了上海能源消费与反映社会经济福利变化的各变量(人均GDP、消费模式和收入分配)的关系，能源消费与人均GDP增长、消费模式变化和收入分配具有高度相关性。最后对能源消费与社会经济福利指数建立协整模型，发现上海能源消费与社会经济福利存在长期协整性。第五，通过建立能源、经济、环境的具体指标体系，运用主成分分析法得到上海能源、经济与环境系统的发展水平及综合发展水平，分析表明上海能源、经济与环境的综合发展水平是不断提升的，但近年来提高幅度很小。基于发展评价指数，运用耦合协调度公式计算了上海能源、经济与环境发展的综合协调度，结果表明，目前上海能源、经济与环境发展已达到良好协调发展状态。第六，基于上海未来经济发展的情景分析和预测，运用回归分析与情景模拟结合法、弹性系数法和组合模型法预测了上海短期到2010年和中长期2015、2020年的能源消费需求量，并对三种方法的预测结果进行了分析说明。第七，分析了可持续发展目标下的上海未来能源需求，情景设定了上海未来能源强度和能源弹性系数，具体分析了节能的可行性和节能途径。重点对工业、建筑业和交通运输业的节能现状和可行性进行了分析，并提出了相应的节能途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy is an essential material basis for human survival and development,atpresent energy and economic development have become an indivisible whole. Energyis a basic element of the national economy,the efficiency of energy use andreasonable energy consumption is in relation to the socio-economic sustainabledevelopment,the excessive growth of energy consumption and energy inefficiencieswill hinder the socio-economic sustainable development.This dissertation uses energy economics and economic development as basictheory,analyzes the relationship between Shanghai’s energy consumption andeconomic development. Studies and analyzes the relationship between energyconsumption and economic growth,industrial structure,socio-economic welfare,economic and environmental development based on the main use of econometricanalysis,structural analysis,the target system and other methods;then further usesanalysis of scenarios of economic development,and predicts future energyconsumption demand;finally analyzes energy-saving to feasibility and energy-savingway under the goal of sustainable development. The main thesis and conclusions areas follows:Firstly,this dissertation puts forward a theoretical basis and theoreticalframework,sets forth concepts and related theories of energy consumption andeconomic development.Secondly,to standardize the method of econometric,testing the relationshipbetween energy consumption and economic growth in Shanghai,the VAR analysisshows that energy has become the restrictive factors of production to the process ofeconomic growth,which can not be completely replaced. Cointegration analysis ofenergy consumption and economic growth shows that they have long-term relevanceand coherence,Granger causality test has confirmed with a two-way causalrelationship between them:not only economic growth causes the increase of energyconsumption,energy consumption,in turn,affects economic growth. Throughempirical time series analysis of power consumption,energy consumption of threeindustries and economic growth,results show that the power consumption,theprimary industry,tertiary sector energy consumption and economic growth have thelong-term existence of cointegration.Thirdly,through the establishment of energy intensity of the decompositionmodel,and the use of quantitative analysis of time series data,this dissertationanalyzes the changes of industrial structure and departmental structure in industry tothe impact of the direction and extent of the energy intensity. The results show that,whether the changes in structure of industrial or departmental has a certain influenceto energy intensity change,but the contribution of structural changes in the share ofcontribution is far less than the share of efficiency Change,and in some years thestructural changes hinder the decline in energy intensity.Fourthly,this dissertation Studies the relationship between Shanghai’s energyconsumption and the variables of socio-economic welfare (per capita GDP,consumption patterns and income distribution),energy consumption is highly relative to per capita GDP growth,changes in consumption patterns and income distribution.Finally,sets up the cointegration model for energy consumption and socio-economicwell-being index,results show that Shanghai’s energy consumption andsocio-economic welfare is of the existence of long-term cointegration.Fifthly,through the establishment of specific target system for energy,economyand environment,and the use of principal component analysis,this dissertation arrivesat the development level of energy,economic,environmental systems and also thelevel of integrated development in Shanghai,analysis shows that Shanghai’s energy,economic and environment development are at ever-increasing level,but onlyimprove slightly in recent years. Based on the evaluation index and the use of formulaof coupling degree of coordination,calculates the degree of coordination of energy,economic and environmental development. And now,energy,economic andenvironmental development in Shanghai has reached a state of well-coordinateddevelopment.Sixthly,based on the scenario analysis and forecasting of Shanghai’s futureeconomic development,the use of regression analysis combined with scenariosimulation,elasticity model and combination prediction models,this dissertationpredicts Shanghai’s energy demand in short-term 2010 and long-term 2015 and2020,then compares and analyzes the prediction results of three prediction methods.Finally,this dissertation uses the scenario analysis of the future energy demandin Shanghai under sustainable development goals,and sets energy intensity andenergy elasticity coefficient in future based on scenario analysis,also concretelyanalyzes the feasibility of energy-saving and energy-saving ways. Focusing onindustrial,construction and transportation,studies energy status,analyzesenergy-saving feasibility,and proposes energy-saving ways.更多还原