大型交通基础设施建设对区域经济增长影响研究

【作者】 芮宏；

【导师】 王桂新；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 社会管理与社会政策， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文从国外和国内两个方面回顾了有关交通基础设施建设与经济增长关系的研究，并以民用机场为例分析了我国大型交通基础设施的发展历程，探讨了我国民用机场建设的现状与存在的问题。建立了一个民用机场建设对区域经济增长影响机制的分析框架，首先民用机场建设具有乘数效应，乘数效应除了受边际消费倾向的影响外，也受边际税率、进口倾向以及经济活动中资源使用状况的制约；其次，民用机场建设会影响网络的性能和交通成本，从而导致出行方式、网络连接以及空间位置所定义的可达性的改变；可达性效应会产生“真实影响”，而这一切又会引起人均产出、就业和其他投资的变化，促进经济发展。本文运用投入产出法，使用安徽省1997年、2000年和2002年的投入产出表计算并比较了民航运输业的发展对安徽区域经济产出和就业的贡献，结论是对区域经济产出的直接贡献较大、波及效果较小，总体贡献仅处于中游水平；对就业的贡献在下降，反映了民航运输业内部和整个区域经济劳动生产率的提高。运用面板数据模型，对华东地区6省1市民用机场建设对区域经济增长的贡献进行了计量分析，发现民用机场建设对区域经济增长的贡献低于非基础设施投资，但是除民用机场以外的其他基础设施投资对区域经济增长的贡献要大于非基础设施投资，说明华东地区民用机场对区域经济增长的“瓶颈”作用已经缓解，同时也说明华东地区民用机场建设的分布结构和网络结构还不尽合理，在很大程度上影响了民用机场投资的效率。同时，在面板数据模型中根据经济发展水平把华东地区分成三个组进行比较分析，发现鲁、闽两省民用机场对经济增长的贡献最高，因此应增加对这两省的民用机场建设投资。在政策分析中，重点就政府在民用机场等大型交通基础设施的发展模式、投资决定、资金筹措、管理体制、发展方向等方面，提出了一系列政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After reviewing studies both from home and abroad on the relationship betweenthe transport infrastructure construction and economic growth,the paper analyzed thedevelopment process of the big-scale transport infrastructure using civil airports as anexample,and also discussed the status quo and problems that Chinese civil airportsface.The paper built an analytic framework,in which how the construction of civilairports affects the growth mechanism of regional economy is analyzed.First of all,the construction of civil airports has a multiplier effect,which is conditioned not onlyby marginal consumption tendency,but also by marginal tax rates,import propensityas well as use of resources in economic activities.Secondly,the construction of civilairports will affect the network performance and transportation costs,thus resulting inthe change in travel mode,network connectivity as well as accessibility,as defined byspatial location;accessibility has“real impact”,which in turn will affect per capitaoutput,employment and other investments,and promotes economic growth.In this paper,input-output method is used with input-output data from AnhuiProvince of the years 1997,2000 and 2002,and after calculating and comparing howthe development of civil aviation transport affects regional economic output as well asemployment in Anhui Province,the paper concludes civil aviation transport has morea direct contribution,less spillover effect to the overall economy and its contributionis in the middle reaches of the overall contributions;it has a declining contribution toemployment,which reflects the improvement of labor productivity both within civilaviation transport industry as well as the entire regional economy.Using panel datamodel,an econometric analysis of the contribution of civil airport construction to theregional economic growth in six provinces and one city of the East China region findsthat contribution made by the construction of civil airports to regional economicgrowth is less than that of non-basic infrastructure investment,while all other basicinfrastructure investments are greater than non-basic infrastructure investment,which indicates not only that the bottleneck role played by civil infrastructure to economicgrowth has been alleviated,but also shows the distribution structure and networkstructure of civil airports in East China region is not reasonable,which to a largeextent has affected the efficiency of investments in civil airports.Meanwhile,EastChina is divided into three groups in accordance to the level of economicdevelopment in the panel data model,and the paper finds,after analysis,that civilairports from Shandong Province and Fujian province have the highest contribution toeconomic growth,and investment of the civil airport construction in these twoprovinces should therefore be increased.In the policy analysis part,the paper puts forward a series of policyrecommendations in the development model,investment decisions,financing,management and futures directions in governmental construction of basicinfrastructure,such as civil airports as discussed.更多还原