FDI、制度变迁与经济增长

【作者】 李卢霞；

【导师】 庄起善；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着区域经济一体化和全球化趋势的发展，FDI在一国经济发展中越来越具有举足轻重的地位。FDI的资本积累效应、FDI的技术溢出效应、FDI的产业结构升级效应，得到了普遍的重视，相对于这些“显性效应”，FDI的制度变迁效应得到了较少关注，近年来，随着流向新兴市场的FDI数量不断增加，FDI的这一隐性效应开始受到重视。对于正处在制度转型期的国家来说，允许外资进入本身就是一种制度创新，引入外资意味着引进了一种新的投资主体、新的分配理念、新的资源分配方式和新的企业制度，这一局部的制度安排以“推”(强制性制度变迁作用)和“拉”(诱致性制度变迁作用)两种力量促进了和正在促进这些国家制度转型的速度，降低了这些国家制度转型的成本。把制度纳入经济增长研究的范畴，贯穿于马克思主义经济学和西方经济学研究的始终，要素积累、技术进步、教育水平、资源配置、宏观经济稳定、法制效率、国际贸易甚至宗教信仰都先后被纳入经济增长的理论框架。新制度经济学派认为，经济增长的根本原因是制度的变迁，这一点在制度转型的国家应尤为突出。2007年的“次贷危机”诱发了全球“金融海啸”，使得中东欧和独联体国家深陷危机。抑制衰退、降低经济波动成为发展的当务之急，在这些转型国家解析危机、寻找根源的时候，FDI似乎又成了经济波动的助推器而非增长的推动力，FDI正扮演着一个“成也萧何，败也萧何”的角色，深入探讨FDI与一国经济波动的内在联系，又回到制度这一最根本的原因上。同时，FDI与经济波动关系的研究，从注重对增长过程的关注这一角度拓展了以往对经济增长研究单注重趋势的传统，一方面切合热点，另一方面也拓展了经济增长问题研究的视角。本文尝试性地在转型经济的特定环境中探讨了FDI对转型国家制度变迁的影响，并将制度变迁因素纳入FDI与转型国家经济增长与经济波动关系的理论分析与实证研究中。在此基础上，总结了转型国家FDI、制度变迁与经济增长和经济波动关系对中国利用FDI的若干启示。全文共分九章，各章主要内容如下：导言部分介绍了本文选题的理论意义与现实意义，对论文的研究方法、技术路线、主要创新和不足之处做了说明，并对制度与制度变迁的概念做了界定。第一章为文献综述，系统梳理了国内外FDI与制度变迁，FDI、制度变迁与经济增长，FDI、制度变迁与宏观经济波动的相关研究文献，并做了归纳和评述。第二章对中东欧和独联体国家利用FDI的历史与现状进行了全面、详尽的考察，并对两类国家利用FDI的情况进行了比较。作者利用实际数据和相关资料，选取波兰、捷克、匈牙利3个有代表性的中东欧国家和俄罗斯、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦3个有代表性的独联体国家，从各国利用FDI的经济背景(各国经济私有化进程)、FDI的流入阶段、FDI的投资方式、FDI的行业分布、FDI的来源地区／国别、吸引FDI的优惠政策、主要投资商几个方面进行了详尽考察，并对各国利用FDI的情况进行了总结。比较分析发现两类国家在主要引资因素、利用外资的规模、FDI的产业结构、FDI的来源地区／国别几个方面存在差异，总结起来，可以说流入中东欧国家的FDI基本上属于“制度导向型”，而流入独联体国家的FDI基本上属于“资源导向型”。第三章首先阐述了FDI在转型国家制度变迁过程中发挥作用的一般原理：FDI影响转型国家制度变迁的过程既存在“诱致性制度变迁”的作用，也存在“强制性制度变迁”的作用；既在宏观制度变迁层面发挥作用，也在微观制度变迁层面发挥作用；FDI进入也通过影响转型国家意识形态这一途径间接作用于转型国家的制度变迁过程；FDI对制度变迁的影响是一连续过程，该过程存在路径依赖。在此基础上，从宏微观两个层面详尽分析了FDI对转型国家制度变迁的作用。宏观层面，主要体现在推动了以私有化、市场化、全球化为特色的基于私有产权的市场经济体制的建立过程；微观层面，则主要体现在FDI进入影响了东道国企业组织制度、治理结构和内部管理制度变迁几个方面。第四章在分析马克思主义经济学和西方经济学经济制度结构的基础上，构建了一个统一的制度分析框架，并针对中东欧和独联体国家经济转型的特征，提出了一个有针对性的PME(Private Property—Market Economics—Enterprise ManagementSystem)指标化制度分析模型。根据该模型，利用来自中东欧11国和独联体12国1992-2008年的经验数据，实证检验了FDI对转型国家各层次制度变迁的作用。结果显示，FDI总体上推动了中东欧和独联体国家私有产权确立、市场经济体制完善和企业制度质量的提高，但FDI并未加快CIS国家融入全球市场的过程，FDI对转型国家宏观调控方式转变的促进作用也是非常有限的。结果还显示，东道国商业竞争氛围越浓，FDI促进企业制度变迁的效应越明显，同时东道国与母国教育水平差距越大，FDI促进企业制度变迁的作用也越大。第五章构建了一个引入FDI与制度因素的内生经济增长模型。通过将制度与劳动力相结合引出有效劳动的概念，扩展了基本的索洛增长模型。在该模型中，FDI作为外生变量，通过影响制度从而影响有效劳动的数量，最终作用于经济增长。结论还表明，FDI进入转型国家，影响了东道国的资本积累增长速度、制度变迁速度、有效劳动增长速度和经济增长速度。第六章的实证研究以制度变迁为视角，全面检验了FDI与东道国经济增长的关系。结果表明，加入相关制度因素之后，FDI与东道国经济增长之间的关系更加显著，这一方面说明FDI在促进一国经济增长过程中的制度变迁效应不容忽视，另一方面也说明为了更好发挥FDI对东道国经济增长的促进作用，营造一个适宜的制度环境是颇为必要的。对于制度因素的作用，样本期内未发现私有产权界定对当期经济增长的积极作用，但长期检验中发现产权界定的消极影响逐渐减弱；经济体制变迁效应对经济增长促进作用的发挥也有“时滞”；企业制度变迁效应对经济增长的积极作用显著。对中东欧和独联体国家的比较检验表明，制度变迁效应在独联体国家表现出对经济增长更大的促进作用。基于PME模型，本章最后对转型国家的“FDI—制度变迁—经济增长路径”做了剖析性总结。第七章将FDI对经济增长影响的研究深化，扩展到FDI影响东道国经济增长过程的研究，即以制度变迁为视角研究FDI与转型国家宏观经济波动的关系。至此，本文对转型国家经济增长的研究，以制度变迁为主线，从趋势和过程两个层面展开。从理论上分析，FDI流入可以经由资金供给平稳化等几个作用机制降低东道国宏观经济波动，也可以通过提高东道国与全球经济周期同步性等机制提高东道国宏观经济波动，使东道国经济增长更容易遭受来自FDI母国的冲击。实证检验表明，样本期内，东道国的金融市场发展水平、现代企业制度质量、宏观经济调控方式等制度变迁因素影响着FDI与东道国宏观经济波动的关系。同时，本章实证研究也关注东道国转型的初始条件及其国内政策对FDI与东道国宏观经济波动关系的影响。第八章利用前文的分析框架，在对中东欧及独联体国家的经验及预测数据统计分析的基础上，基于制度变迁视角，探讨了“次贷危机”中FDI与东道国宏观经济波动的关系。结果表明，独联体国家“资源导向型”的FDI与其宏观经济波动之间有较为密切的关系；在全球化程度及银行业外资控股程度较高的国家，危机的传播速度更快。中东欧和独联体国家的对比分析表明，FDI的制度变迁效应有一定平抑波动的作用，但并不明显。研究还表明，开放之初较小的经济规模、较差的工业基础和原材料出口对GDP贡献度较高的国家，在危机中更易遭受打击。第九章是结论部分，在系统总结前文各部分结论的基础上，提出了本文研究对中国利用FDI的若干启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of internationalization,FDI plays more and moreimportant role in economic growth. Such“dominant effect”as Capital Accumulation,Technology Spillover,Upgrading of Industrial Structure and so on have already beenpaid enough attention,however,the implicit effect of Institutional change of FDI haslittle been concerned. In recent years,with the quantity of FDI flowing into emergingmarket is increasing,this implicit effect has attracted more and more attention. As totransition countries,admission of foreign investment itself is a kind of institutioninnovation. Leading into foreign investment means introducing a new investment body,anew ideal of income distribution,a new manner of resource allocation and a newenterprise management system,this local institution arrangement has and havingincreased the speed and decreased the cost of institutional change of host country by“push”strength (the so called imposed institutional change effect) and“pull”strength(the so called induced institutional change effect).Including institution into the regime of economic growth study has been a custom ofMarxism economics and western economics. Factor accumulation,technology progress,education level,resource distribution,macroeconomic stability,legal efficiency,international trade and even religious belief are all brought into the frame of economicgrowth. In the opinion of new institutional economics school,the fundamental reason ofeconomic growth is institutional change,especially in transition countries. With theexpansion of 2007“Subprime Credit Crisis”,CEE and CIS countries have plunged intograve crisis. Therefore,the key task for these countries at present is to restrain depressionand decrease volatility. While discussing the reasons of crisis,FDI seems to be themodulator driver of economic volatility instead of the stimulus of economic growth. FDIis now playing a role of Xiaohe who is responsible for not only the success but also thefailure of the affair. A through study about the relation between FDI and the economicvolatility from a prospective of institutional change is very interesting.This thesis firstly attempts to study the effect of FDI to institutional change intransition countries.And then the author includes the factor of institutional change intothe theoretical analysis and empirical study of the relation between FDI and economic growth and economic volatility in transition countries. Further discussion is how FDIinfluence the economic growth of CEE and CIS countries in the“Subprime CreditCrisis”.This thesis comprises of 9 chapters,main content of each chapter is presented asfollows:Introduction covers the theoretic and practical value of this thesis,research methodand technical route used in this thesis,definitions of relevant concepts,and also the maininnovations and drawbacks of this thesis.Chapter 1 makes a review of the literature and makes systematic sum-up andcomment on the effect of institutional change of FDI and the relation between FDI,institutional change and economic growth and economic volatility.Chapter 2 gives a detailed investigation of the history and current status of FDI inCEE and CIS countries and also makes a comprehensive comparison between these twokinds of countries. Buy use of the abundant and accurate data,the author makes adetailed research on the background(the privatization process),the stage,the investmentmanner,the industry distribution,the home countries,the preferential policy and the maininvestors of FDI in representative countries of Poland,Czech republic,Hungary,Russia,Ukraine and Kazakhstan and also gives a sum-up for every country. Through furtherresearch,this thesis concludes the differences on FDI in CEE and CIS countries andnamed the FDI flowing into CEE countries as“institution guidance”and the FDI flowinginto CIS countries as“resource guidance”.Chapter 3 firstly analyzes the general principle of how FDI has effects oninstitutional change in transition countries:there is not only imposed effect ofinstitutional change but also induced effect of institutional change,not only influence onmacroeconomic level but also microeconomic level,FDI also has an influence oninstitutional change of transition countries through its influence on host countries’ideology and there exists path independence. On the basis of general analysis,this thesisgives a detailed analysis on the effect of FDI to institutional change in transition countries.On macroeconomic level,the main effects are that FDI promotes the process of buildingup the market economic mechanism which is based on private property in transitioncountries.On microeconomic level,the effect is that FDI is helpful to establish modementerprise management system in transition countries. Chapter 4 put forwards a uniform frame for institution analysis by a thoroughcomparison of Marxism economics and western economics. According to the reality ofCEE and CIS countries,the author then presents a PME model based on the above frame.This thesis examines the effects of FDI on institutional change based on the PME model.The results show that FDI promotes the establishment of private property,theimprovement of market economics mechanism and enterprise management system.However,FDI has no obvious influence on the speed of internationalization and limitedinfluence on the change of macroeconomic regulation mechanism in transition countries.The results also indicate that the more significant of commercial competition the moreevident effect of FDI on the change of enterprise management system and the moreremarkable difference of higher education level between host country and homecountry,the more prominent effect of FDI on the change of enterprise managementsystem.Chapter 5 constructs an endogenous economic growth model involving the factor ofFDI and institutional change. By puting forth the concept of effective labor throughcombination of institution and labor force,this thesis extends the Solow model. In thismodel,as an external variable,FDI influences economic growth through its effect oninstitution and finally on effective labor force. The equilibrium solution of the modelshows that FDI have influence on the speed of capital accumulation,the speed ofinstitutional change,and the speed of effective labor force growth and the speed ofeconomic growth.Chapter 6 makes a comprehensive empirical study about the relation of FDI andeconomic growth of host country from a perspective of institutional change. The resultsindicate that the relation is more significant after involving the factor of institutionalchange,which shows that on one hand the effect of institutional change of FDI should notbe neglected and on the other hand constructing proper environment is essential to satisfythe need of FDI to stimulate economic growth of host country. In a word,theestablishment of private property has no obvious influence on economic growth duringthe sample period,the market economic mechanism and enterprise management systemhave significant influence on economic growth. Furthermore,the results also indicate thatthe institutional change effect of FDI of current period has not obvious influence oneconomic growth of host country and FDI with a lag of 2-3 periods has comparatively strong influence on economic growth. Comparative test between CEE and CIS countriesshows that FDI has more strong influence on economic growth in CEE countries than thatin CIS countries.Chapter 7 carries out a through research on the relation between FDI and economicvolatility from a perspective of institutional change. Theoretical analysis shows that FDImay decrease macroeconomic volatility of host country through several ways such assteady capital supply and increase macroeconomic volatility through ways such asincreasing the economic frangibility of host country relative with the home country.Empirical analysis indicates that the development level of financial market,the enterprisemanagement system,the manner of macroeconomic regulation,the legal quality and soon have influence on the effect of FDI to macroeconomic volatility. Meanwhile,thehigher per capita GDP and the higher ratio of industrial production to GDP in thebeginning of opening,FDI has more inconspicuous influence on macroeconomicvolatility of host country.Chapter 8 discusses the relation between FDI and the economic growth of hostcountries in the“Subprime Credit Crisis”by use of the above analysis frame and thestatistical and predicable data of CEE and CIS countries,also from a perspective ofinstitutional change. We find that FDI of“resource guidance”flowing to CIS countrieshas more conspicuous relation with macroeconomic volatility of host countries in thiscrisis rather than FDI of“institution guidance”flowing to CEE countries. And the highdegree of internationalization and bank opening together with incomplete arrangement ofprivate property increase macroeconomic volatility. We also find that countries with lowGDP,low industrial development and high ratio of raw material export at the beginningof opening are more fragile in this crisis.Chapter 9 is the sum-up of this thesis. After systematic summary of the conclusionsof the above chapters,the author concludes the main enlightenments from the success andfailure experiences of CEE and CIS countries on utilizing FDI in China.更多还原