我国对外贸易的能源环境影响

【作者】 陈红敏；

【导师】 戴星翼；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经济的高速增长依赖于能源与环境资源的大量投入。粗放的增长模式已经使能源与环境压力成为我国经济发展的现实约束。而在全球化的背景下,贸易的能源环境影响更为复杂。一方面,大量的出口贸易产品背后是生产中国内能源的大量消耗和污染的大量排放;另一方面,进口贸易产品减少了国内的能源消耗和污染排放;与此同时,贸易的发展又促进了经济的繁荣。因此,了解贸易对我国的能源环境究竟有怎样的影响,以及如何看待这种影响,将直接影响到我国在全球化中更好地平衡能源环境压力与国家利益的路径选择。传统的贸易与环境关系分析指出了贸易对环境的影响机制,但是难以单独的分析贸易的能源环境影响。投入产出分析技术在能源与环境领域的应用,以及对气候问题研究的不断深入,导致了对贸易中隐含能和隐含碳等问题的广泛研究。由于缺乏广泛接受的标准的核算方法,现有研究的结果很大程度上依赖于投入产出方法的应用方式,一些不合理的或随意性过大的处理方式使得分析结果出现巨大的差异。而在如何看待贸易导致的“碳平衡”问题上,现有的研究则主要纠缠于碳减排责任上。然而,减排责任的界定和分配很大程度上属于政治范畴,对此的争论可以作为气候谈判的策略,并不能成为现实的指导我国缓解能源环境压力的依据。因此,需要全新的视角来考察对外贸易中的隐含能和隐含碳排放等问题。本文首先在改进传统的隐含能和隐含碳分析架构的基础上,核算了我国1997-2006年对外贸易中的隐含能和隐含碳进出口情况,分析了其对我国能源环境的影响。其中主要做了两点新的尝试:第一,将“隐含能”和“隐含碳”等概念统一在“隐含流”概念的基础上,尝试建立了以“虚拟进口国”假设为原则的隐含流分析架构。并提出了基于“虚拟进口国”假设的较为简单的进口技术系数的选择方法,以简化对来自不同国家进口产品隐含能的计算。该方法在分析单一国家对外贸易中的隐含流时,弥补了采用“进口同质性假设”或“进口替代假设”,以及其他随意性过大的技术系数选择方式的不足,同时又比多区域的投入产出方法更为灵活简便。其基本特点是假设存在一个虚拟国家,一国的进口产品全部来自这个国家,从而可以利用这个国家的技术系数计算进口隐含流。在此基础上,假设在我国的主要进口贸易伙伴中,某个国家的国内的平均能耗强度(也可以是其他指标)与我国全部进口产品的平均能耗强度最接近,就可以将这个国家近似的看作我国的虚拟进口国,并利用该国的技术系数计算我国的进口隐含能。第二,本文尝试建立了同时包含能源消费和生产过程碳排放的隐含碳核算框架。传统的隐含碳核算中主要侧重对能源消费导致的碳排放的核算,而忽视了工业生产过程排放导致的产品中的生产过程隐含碳排放。为了适应我国工业过程碳排放比重不断上升的现实情况,本文尝试扩大了传统的能源消费的隐含碳核算框架,以同时包含生产过程的隐含碳排放,并与传统的方法具有兼容性。研究发现,台湾地区可以作为我国的虚拟进口国(地区),从而可以利用台湾的技术系数计算我国进口隐含能和隐含碳。对隐含碳的分析发现,我国的生产过程碳排放主要消耗在国内,通过贸易隐性出口的生产过程碳排放较少,能源消费导致的隐含碳排放占出口隐含碳的主导地位。因此,我国对外贸易中隐含能和隐含碳的变化具有较大的一致性。对1997-2006年我国对外贸易中隐含能和隐含碳的核算结果显示,虽然我国隐含能和隐含碳的进口增速高于其出口增速,但是因为隐含能和隐含碳的出口规模远高于进口规模,因此,我国是隐含能和隐含碳的净出口国,且净出口规模越来越大,对我国的能源环境构成了巨大压力。2006年,出口国内隐含能对我国能源消费的压力增加至34.18%,净出口隐含能也已经达到国内能源总消费的26.31%。类似的,2006年,出口国内隐含碳占国内总碳排放量32.73%,而我国总碳排放的26.09%是为净出口服务的。服务于出口贸易的大量的能源和碳排放消耗在国内,对国内的能源环境形势产生了巨大压力,而实际上这些能源和碳排放是为国外最终消费的。由此引出的一个问题是如何看待对外贸易中的隐含能和隐含碳,以及它给我国带来的能源环境压力?本文尝试提出一种看待贸易中的隐含能和隐含碳影响的新视角。如果将碳排放看成是某种环境资源的损耗,那么我国隐含能和隐含碳的大量出口和净出口实际上意味着能源与环境资源的间接出口。从这一点上来说,对于一个国家而言,更重要的是需要知道大量的能源和环境资源以隐性的方式出口是否带来与之相应的或者更大的收益?因此,本文创新性地提出了将对外贸易中的隐含流看作是贸易的资源投入,将贸易诱发的GDP和就业视为产出,进而从资源投入与产出的角度分析对外贸易是否更有利于我国的发展。据此,本文着重考察了出口贸易中隐含能和隐含碳投入的GDP效应和就业效应。时间轴上的研究结果显示,通过出口贸易扩大来获得就业机会的增加,所需付出的能源与环境代价将越来越高。结构上的比较分析显示,出口贸易的资源投入产出的各项指标均小于国内消费的资源投入产出的相应指标。因此,相较于国内消费,将能源与环境资源投入于出口贸易,并不利于我国GDP和就业的最大化,从而存在资源优化配置的空间。由此可见,有必要从贸易角度寻找缓解我国能源环境压力的途径。为此,需要解析贸易影响能源环境的主要作用渠道。本文利用分解分析技术分析了影响我国出口隐含能不断扩大的主要因素,并首次分析了导致我国净出口隐含能的主要影响因素。结果指出规模效应是导致我国隐含能出口不断扩大的主要因素。国内外技术因素(即国内外单位产值完全能耗)的差距是导致我国隐含能净出口的主要原因。进一步的分析指出,国内产品的低附加值是导致国内外技术因素差距的主要原因。而造成这种情况的根本原因是我国在全球产业链中处于低附加值的制造加工部分。从“微笑曲线”角度的分析,进一步指出了由于这种结构性原因,造成了我国出口贸易的资源环境投入高而产出效益低,而为了提高产出不得不增加产品规模,依赖产量经济,从而导致隐含流的出口增加,加剧了能源环境压力。因此,我国对外贸易中隐含能和隐含碳的大量出口和净出口,以及由此带来的能源环境影响问题,本质上不是规模问题,不是技术问题,而是一个结构问题。而我国长期以来GDP导向的贸易增长策略是导致我国结构性问题的根本原因。对我国而言,贸易的发展从GDP导向转向就业导向,并逐步向人力资本密集型方向发展;从横向的产品结构调整转向纵向的向产业链高附加值部分的调整,以及健康的国内市场的培育,将有助于我国在全球化中更好地平衡能源环境压力与国家利益。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s rapidly growing economy and its extensive economic operation require significant energy and environment resources inputs, which have become the severe constraints to sustainable development. Under the background of globalization, the energy and environment impacts of international trade have made the problem more complex. International trade is characterized not only by the flow of capital and goods, but also by the energy and emissions embodied in goods during their production. Thus, improving our understanding of the international trade influences on China’s energy and environment situation will help to find a better way to balance the energy and environment pressure with the benefits of our country in globalization.Traditional analysis on trade and environment has investigated the mechanism of trade influences on environment, but failed to make out the real environment impacts induced by trade. The application of input output analysis method in the field of energy and environment analysis, and the extending researches on climate change, have led to large numbers of analyses on energy embodied in international trade and on the balance of emissions embodied in trade （BEET）. Since there is no standard and universally accepted method for those analyses, the accounting results largely depend on the processing method. Some unreasonably or randomly processing method has given rise to the difference of those results. As to the BEET, most researches focus on the discussion of emissions reduction responsibility, which is actually the work for climate change negotiations. Thus a comprehensive accounting of embodied energy and embodied emissions in international trade as well as a better understanding of its impact are necessary for our country to sacrifice less energy and environmental resources for more benefits.Based on the improvement of the traditional framework of embodied energy and embodied emissions analysis, this paper has calculated the energy and emissions embodied in China’s international trade during 1997-2006, as well as its influences on China’s energy and emissions situation, which features two innovations:First, based on the "virtual import country" assumption, a relatively new and simple framework for embodied flow analysis has been proposed, which helps to simplify the calculation of embodied flow in imports from various countries. Here embodied flow is a compound concept for embodied energy and embodied emissions as well as other resources with embodied meanings, and it indicates the direct and indirect resources inputs in product supply. Based on the "virtual import country" assumption, the simple technological coefficient choosing method has also been put forward. This new framework has made up for the deficiency of "homogeneity assumption" and "import substitution assumption" as well as other randomly technological coefficient choosing method in traditional analysis, and it is also simpler and more flexible than the multi-regional input output analysis. The main point for this framework is to assume the existence of a virtual country, from which all the imports come, thus the technological coefficient of this virtual country can be used to calculate the embodied flow in imports. And a country within the main import partners, whose energy intensity （or other indexes） is closest to the average energy intensity of all the imports, thus this country can be treated as the "virtual import country".Second, this paper has tried to extend the traditional framework for embodied emissions analysis to cover both the emissions from energy consumption and those from industrial process, the latter has usually been neglected in the traditional analysis of embodied emissions.According to the new framework, Taiwan can be treated as the "virtual import country （partner）" for our country. Thus the technological coefficient of Taiwan can be used to calculate the embodied energy and embodied emissions in imports. The results of embodied emissions analysis show that most of the CO₂ emissions from industrial process are consumed in China, few are exported through trades. Emissions from energy consumption take charge in embodied emissions export. Thus the change of embodied emissions and its impacts are similar to those of embodied energy.The results show that though the energy and emissions embodied in imports increases faster than those in exports, China is a net exporter for both embodied energy and embodied emissions, and the scale of net export is becoming larger since the energy and emissions embodied in exports is much bigger than those in imports. The large export of embodied energy and embodied emissions in international trade has given rise to the energy and environment pressure of China. The embodied energy in exports has accounted for 34.18% of China’s total energy consumption in 2006, and the net export also comes up to 26.31%. Similarly, 32.73% of the total CO₂ emissions in China are actually embodied in exports and serves for those foreign countries, and 26.09% of the total emissions are for net export.Large proportions of China’s energy consumption and CO₂ emissions are embodied in China’s export and net export, which finally serve for foreign countries and increase the energy and environment pressure of China, thus comes to a problem of how to look on the energy and emission embodied in international trade and its impacts.This paper has tried to put forward a new view on the understanding of it. Emissions can be regarded as the consumption of some environment resource, thus the large export of embodied energy and emissions can be taken as the indirect export of some resources. In the background of globalization, it is more important to understand whether the large export of embodied energy and embodied emissions has brought about more benefits for our country. So this paper has proposed to take the energy and emissions embodied in exports as the resource inputs of exports, and take the GDP and employment supply induced by exports as the outputs of exports, then analyze the GDP effects and employment effects of embodied energy and embodied emissions inputs to find out whether export is more beneficial for China.The analysis indicates that more energy and environment resources inputs will be needed to bring about employment growth through exports extending with the year. As compared to domestic consumptions, exports require more energy and environmental resources inputs to produce per unit GDP or per unit employment. So the current trade pattern is not best for China to get more benefits with fewer inputs in globalization.Thus it is necessary and also possible to release the energy and environment pressure of China through international trade. In order to find out the sources of those pressure, this paper has investigated the factors that affect the embodied energy in exports, and has also conducted a factors analysis on the net export of embodied energy of China which has few been done.It is found that scale effect is the main reason for the extending export of embodied energy. And the main reason for China to be a net exporter of embodied energy lies in the technique effect gap, which means the difference of comprehensive energy consumption per production value. Further study suggests that the low value added of China’s product is the crucial reason for the technique effect gap. And this is because China has been situated in the manufacturing and processing part with low value added in the global industrial chains. From the view of "smile curve", this structure problem is also emphasized as the main reason for the low benefits and high inputs of China’s exports, which leads to the dependence on product numbers of trade, and thus increases the energy and environment pressure.It is concluded that the large export and net export of embodied energy and embodied emissions in China’s international trade is not a problem of scale, nor a problem of technique, but a problem of structure. The trade growth pattern under the GDP orientation contributes most to the structure problem. In order to better balance the energy and environment pressure with country benefits, the trade growth pattern needs to change from GDP orientation to employment orientation, and more attentions should be paid to the human capital investment. The trade structure adjustment needs to change from the structure adjustment of product to the vertically extension in the industrial chains for higher valued added. And such a structure adjustment calls for a stronger domestic market in globalization.更多还原