中国国际收支失衡问题研究

【作者】 焦武；

【导师】 许少强；

【作者基本信息】 复旦大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 近些年来，反映中国对外经济交往的国际收支账户呈现出愈发严重的失衡现象。中国国际收支两大基本账户：经常帐户和资本金融账户，同时、长期、持续出现顺差，即，所谓的“双顺差”，尤其是其中处于核心地位的经常帐户的顺差规模更是快速飙升，成为对中国这一问题最集中、真实的写照。中国国际收支长期、大额“双顺差”，是在中国经济改革开放的进程中，特别是上个世纪九十年代中期以来，逐渐形成、加深的。因为，有着特定的国际经济大环境和中国自身改革开放的内在需求，这种“双顺差”现象的产生在中国经济发展的某一阶段有其必然性与合理性。但是，随着时间的推移，也逐渐暴露出中国经济“内部”所积累的一些深层次矛盾。对这种日益严重的中国经济“外部”不平衡问题，如果我们不加以关注、调控的话，事情的发展就可能走向其对立面。本论文，紧密联系中国国际收支长期失衡的现实问题，通过对中国国际收支历史数据进行仔细的梳理与剖析，以期找出这种失衡的内在原因。我们的分析、研究是建立在主要针对中国这一现实问题的国际收支相关理论基础上的。同时，我们采用多种时间序列计量方法，从不同的视角，分别对影响中国经常帐户收支中长期变动的宏观经济变量因素；中国经常帐户收支的长期可维持性；中国经常帐户及其主要子账户与资本金融账户、相关宏观经济变量间的动态冲击响应关系；中国经常帐户收支在不同经济变量冲击下，向不同顺差状态转换的概率大小；中国经常帐户收支动态模型在可变参数不同设定状态下的变动路径、合意的逆转路径等问题展开了较深入的实证研究。最后，在前文理论分析和实证研究的基础上，我们对中国国际收支失衡问题的内在原因作了进一步的深化与总结，并给出了相应的政策调控建议。为了具体化我们的政策调控设想，便于其实践过程中的可操作性，我们构建了一个建立在开放经济条件下，综合IS-LM-BP模型和Swan模型特点的政策调控与搭配模型。通过该模型，我们阐释了化解当前中国“内”、“外”经济失衡问题的政策解决方案。总之，我们认为中国国际收支失衡问题是中国经济发展过程中“内”、“外”经济结构失序、失调的外在表现，其根源在于中国经济结构的“内部”失衡。当然，“外生”因素也很重要，它们对这种中国经济“内”、“外”失衡的交互放大起到了推波助澜的效应。因此，中国国际收支失衡在本质上是结构性的失衡，带有较明显的阶段性。我们认为并相信，这种结构性失衡在中国经济进一步发展的过程中是可以得到逐步缓解直至解决的。当然，这应该是一个长期的过程，中国自身的积极应对是至关重要的，但某种程度的国际协调与配合无疑会加速这种纠偏的进程。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years,BP accounts of china reflecting economic interactionwith other conuntries or districts have increasingly revealed seriousimbalance phenomenon.Two foundational accounts of BP in china :CurrentAccount (CA) and Capital and Finance Account (KA) have all appearedsurpluses,coincidentally、permanently and persistently.That is,socalled,Two-Surplus.Especially,CA setting in core status of BP in chinasurplus scale has more rapidly increased,which intensivly and trulyembodied the problem.The permanent and large scale two-surplus of BP in china has graduallydeveloped and deepened since china economic reform and open,especiallymid-90’ s last century.Because of special world economic circumstancesand china itself demand for reform and open,two-surplus showed some extentinevitability and rationality in specific stages of economic developmentin china.But,as time goes by,in fact,two-surplus has gradually exposedsome accmulative contradictions rooted deeply in“interal”chineseeconomy.Facing to increasingly serious“exteral”china economyimbalance,if we didn’t pay attention to and adjust it,the thingdevelopment can go opposite.This dissertation closely contacts with practical problems of thepermanent imbalance of BP in china,which aims to find out inherent reasonsby careful analyses to historical data of BP accounts in china.Our studyis mainly based on relative theories of BP suited for china practice.Atthe same time,we employ various kinds of time series econometricapproaches,from different views of aspect,to carry out our positivestudies seperately,including the determinants of medium-to-long termdymamics of CA in china;sustainability of china CA in long term;dynamicimpluse responses in CA with its main sub-accounts and KA,in addition to relative several important macroeconomic variables;china CA probabilitydistribution from one defined surplus to another under different economicvariable impacts;china CA dynamic model diverse paths and desired pathsunder parameters different assignment.At last,based on the above theory analyses and positive studies,we makemore in-depth analyses and draw some important conclusions by more furtherinvestigating china BP imbalance causes,and we also give correspondingpolicy adjustment suggestions.In order to give concrete policy adjustmentsuggestions to facilitate practical opreations,we design a policyadjustment and coordination model synthesized characteristics ofIS-LM-BP model and Swan model under open economic conditions.By ourmodel,we illustrate policy solutions aiming at current“internal”、“external”economic imbalance problems in china.In short,we think BP imbalace in china is outward performance of“interal”、“external”economic structures disoeder during china economicdevelopment.However,here,we believe china“internal”economic structureimbalance is main origin.Of course,“exogenous”factors are alsoimportant,which play a role of adding fuel to the flames for interactiveenlargement between china“internal”and“external”economic imbalance.Therefore,BP imbalance in china,in essence,is a structural imbalancewith evident stage featuers.We think and believe that sucha structuralimbalance in the further development of China economy would be able toget the process of gradually ease until resolved.Of course,this shouldbe a long process,and actively respond to China’s own is essential,butsome degree of international coordination and cooperation willundoubtedly accelerate this process of correcting the case.更多还原