【作者】 鲁地；

【导师】 聂华林；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪将是甘肃城市化快速发展的时期，面对经济社会现代化的要求，甘肃城市化面临数量和质量两方面的巨大挑战。城市化涵义可以从人口学、社会学、经济学和地理学四个方面分析，相应的城市化过程也在这四个方面有不同的表现，城市化过程具有时间阶段性和空间阶段性规律。甘肃城市化是在驱动力和制动力共同作用下实现的。用时间序列数据和截面数据从两个方面对甘肃人口城市化现状进行分析，并分析甘肃城市化演进历史。利用因子分析法对个甘肃12个地级市的发展能力进行测评，得出它们的发展能力综合得分并排序，兰州市和嘉峪关市的发展能力最高，定西市和陇南市的发展能力最低。对甘肃城市规模等级进行分析，得出结论：甘肃首位度偏小，甘肃12个地级市规模分布较集中，中间位序城市数目较多，人口规模较均衡，人口分布较均衡，整个城市体系发育较成熟。全省县级小城镇层面上的城镇体系空间分布适中，中部和东部区域的城镇分布较为均匀。对甘肃城市化与产业发展、工业化、投资、产出、收入和消费的相关性进行分析，测评出甘肃各产业发展对城市化的贡献水平，为甘肃新型城市化的相关决策服务。用时间序列回归法、灰色系统GM规模预测、增长率法等方法对甘肃省未来城市化水平进行预测，预计甘肃2020年的城市化率将达到43—50％，2050年的城市化率将到达79—83％。在甘肃实现实现社会现代化的的背景下，提出甘肃的裁弯取直路径及新型城市化战略。通过分析得出甘肃推进新型城市化战略有其必要性、可行性，并分析甘肃推进新型城市化战略的产业基础，提出甘肃推进新型城市化战略的终极目标是生态城市，并对生态城市进行分析。设计甘肃新型城市化的战略原则、规模战略定位、空间战略定位和城镇体系定位，在分析甘肃城市化现状模式的基础上，提出了甘肃新型城市化战略五种类别的战略模式选择。最后，以实现甘肃社会现代化为宏观目标背景，从八个方面构想甘肃新型城市化战略的推进路径。分别是促使人口流动协调、重视城市现代化建设、城乡协调发展、重视传统文化保护、处理好生态环境管理与城市化的关系、建设信息化甘肃、走面向世界的城市化之路、加速甘肃经济现代化发展，并针对每条路径提出甘肃推进的策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cities in Gansu develop highly rapidly in the age of 21st century. Facing thedemand of ecological modernization in society,the urbanization of Gansu encountershuge challenges in the perspectives of quantity and quality.The significance of urbanization can be analyzed in the perspectives ofdemography,sociology,ecology and geography. The correspondence of the process inurbanization can also be performed in the four different ways. The process ofurbanization includes the regular pattern in the level of time and in the level of space.The urbanization of Gansu is mutually realized by the functions of the force in thrustand the force in control. Using the data of time order and interception,I analyze thepresent situation of the population in urban modernization in Gansu. Furthermore,bythe way of using the analysis of factors,I estimate and evaluate the ability ofdevelopment in the twelve cities in Gansu. In this way,I conclude the developmentalability of cities in general and order the grades of the cities. The ability ofdevelopment in Lanzhou City and Jiayuguan City is the highest;the ability ofdevelopment in Dingxi City and Longnan City is the lowest. After the analysis of thescale and scope in the cities of Gansu,I conclude that the primacy of Gansu isrelatively low,the twelve cities in Gansu locate more centralized,the numbers ofmiddle cities are more numerous,and the scale and location of demography are morebalanced. Above all,the systems of the whole cities are more maturely developed.The small towns in the level of county in the whole province locate moderate in thesystem of townships. The towns in the middle and the east areas situate more balanced.While analyzing from the perspectives of urbanization,the development of industry,the industrialization,the investment,the production,the income and the consumption,I conclude that the various kinds of industrial developments which contribute to thestandard of urbanization determine the decisive services in the modern urbanization inGansu.Using the ways of the regression in time order,the grey system of GM scaleprediction,and the rate of increase to the prediction of the standard of cites in GansuProvince,I conclude that in the year of 2020,the rate of urbanization is 43-50%,andwhile approaching to the year of 2050,the rate of urbanization is up to 79-83%.Under the background of the urban modernization in society in Gansu,I propose the short-cut way and the strategy of modern urbanization. Through the analysis of thestrategy of modern urbanization which Gansu puts into practice,the importance andthe practicability of the strategy are the basis for the modern urbanization itself. Afterthat,I suggest that the main target of the modern urbanization in Gansu is the city ofecology and thus,I make the effort to analyze the city of ecology.While designing the urban modernization in Gansu,I propose the followingperspectives which can be used for the analysis-the strategic principle,the scale andthe scope of strategic orientation,the spatial strategic orientation and the orientationof city and township. Under the basis which used for the analysis of urbanmodernization in Gansu,I bring up the five kinds of strategies and the choices of thestrategic modes in modern urbanization in Gansu.At last,under the background of the realization in the perspective of themodernization in the society in Gansu,I design eight aspects for the strategies of theurban modernization in Gansu. They are the fluid coordination in population,theimportance of modem construction in urbanization,the coordinating development ofcity and the township,the importance of the traditional culture,the well handling ofthe ecological management and the relationship of ecology and the urbanization,theconstruction of the computerization in Gansu,the future world for the urbanization,and the rapid development of economical urbanization in Gansu. The precise andpractical suggestions of each strategy are introduced and mentioned one after another.更多还原