【作者】 尚鸿雁；

【导师】 董千里；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 物流工程与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 危险货物运输突发事件(HMTE)属于事故灾难类研究范畴，是突发事件领域的重要组成内容。鉴于目前HMTE频繁发生，但相关研究成果却严重匮乏和基本理论体系尚未形成的现状，本文确立HMTE为研究对象，运用模糊数学理论、层次分析法和集成理论等方法，对HMTE机理和风险评估方法等内容进行了多角度的研究和论证。首先，提出和定义了HMTE管理的概念。本文在详细分析国内外不同领域突发事件和应急管理等相关研究内容的基础上，反复对比和鉴别相近的研究范畴，提出并定义了“突发事件管理”的概念。其次，确立了HMTE管理的研究内容。依据对突发事件“识别-分析-评估”的思路，将HMTE风险识别、变化机理及生命周期模式分析、风险评估等内容确立为“突发事件管理”的核心研究内容，并分别进行了详尽地阐述和论证。阐明了HMTE风险辨识因素，提出和构建了三维耦合致因机理及解耦机理模型。基于系统工程理论，论述了人-物-环(H-M-E)系统中对HMTE风险构成因素的识别，在分析单因素、双因素和三因素耦合致因机理以及现有理论的基础上，提出了三维轨迹交汇理论，并建立了耦合致因模型，探索了HMTE直接耦合机理、间接耦合机理和风险构成的耦合度量，提出了剔除解耦、隔离解耦和支撑解耦三种机理的模型和方法。深入研究了HMTE演变机理，分析了HMTE生命周期模式。将突发事件视为一个动态有生命的发展变化过程，对“HMTE机理”这一前沿问题从发生、发展和演化等角度展开了系统地研究和论证，抽象概括了它们的变化规律，提出了HMTE生命周期的概念，并对各种类型的生命周期模式分别进行了分类和论述。建立了较为完整的危险货物运输风险评价指标体系。由于人的因素不具备和危险货物一样的“危险等级”属性，使其成为建立指标体系和风险评价的难点。本文在考察109起实际案例的基础上，重新确立了危险货物运输系统各方面因素所共有的属性，使人的因素首次成为风险评价的主要因素之一而体现出了应有的重要价值，建立了更为完整和合理的HMTE风险评估指标体系。构建了风险评价模型，完成并验证了HMTE风险评估。在评价方法的选择上，立足于方法集成创新，使FuzzyAHP、综合评价方法、三维向量模型和空间三维八块预警模型分阶段集成，形成一体化的整体评价模型和预警方法，解决了评估体系具有多层次、多维性和多属性等复杂特性难以实现综合评价的难题。在确定权重的核心和难点问题上，应用Fuzzy AHP软件计算和获取各评价指标的权重，既避免了判断和检验过程的繁琐，也降低了专家主观愿望的影响，增加了评价结果的可靠性。并且，利用企业实例，完成和验证了风险评估过程。最后，探讨和建立了危险货物运输企业HMTE管理和运行模式，和运行保障要求。总之，论文从梳理现有的国内外相关理论入手，系统地研究和论证了风险识别因素，HMTE演变机理和风险评估方法，形成了HMTE理论体系的雏形，初步奠定了进一步研究的基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 Hazardous Materials Transportation Emergencies (HMTE) are a category of disaster and incidents, its researches belong to emergency area. Although HMTE are being frequent, researches in this field are difficult to be found. Thus HMTE is chosen as a research object by this paper. And some methodologies and theories are applied, such as the fuzzy mathematics, the analytic hierarchy process and the integration theory and so on, to finish the research about mechanism of HMTE and integration methods of risk assessment from different angles.First of all, Concept of Emergency Management involve in HMTE was put forward as well as defined by this dissertation based on a lot of analyzing and distinguishing of similar researches results, which from different fields and countries. Secondly, the research contents were figured out according to the idea of Identification-Analysis-Evaluation of emergency, which contain the risk identification, Change Mechanism and lifecycle mode, risk assessment of HMTE. And all these research contents have been expatiated and demonstrated respectively.A risk identification system of "Human-Materials-Environment (H-M-E)" was established based on systems engineering theory. An original two-dimensional Causes-Results Theory was promoted to be three-dimensional Orbit Intersecting Theory, which can be utilized to illuminate mechanism and measurement of coupling; and Domino Theory from H·W·Heinrich was redefined into "Mechanism of Eliminate and Uncoupling", which extend the connotation and thought of original theory and was discussed by this dissertation.The latest research object "HMTE Mechanism" was considered and studied deeply in this dissertation from different change stages, which refer to occurrence, development and evolvement of HMTE after review of HMTE theory and the change rules of HMTE were summarized. Lifecycle Concept of HMTE was proposed, moreover its category and pattern descriptions were achieved. All these researches constitutes theoretical rudiment of HMTE mechanism system, and will become a foundation for further study and exploration.After finishing a series of basic theoretical research for HMTE found that it is a difficulty for setting up index systems and making risk assessment that human as one of assessment factors has no hazardous attribute, which is a great difference between human and hazardous materials while giving risk assessment. But, through reviewing and summarizing 109 HMTE cases, redefining same attributes of all assessment factors, this dissertation built a new and reasonable index system with H factors, which embody the importance of human factors. The assessment models were established and the risk assessments were finished finally. Based on the idea of integrated innovation, several assessment methods were selected by this paper, so that Fuzzy AHP, comprehensive assessment method, three-dimensional vector model and space eight divided model formed an integrated overall assessment and early warning methodology to solve the complicated problems about index systems with multi-level, multi-dimensional and multi-property etc. There is a very important and difficult problem is about how to determine weight. New method Fuzzy AHP software was applied to compute it. This not only skips judgments and test process in assessments, but also mitigates influence from subjectivity of experts. And all the assessment procedures showed by corporations’ cases studies in this dissertation.Finally, emergency management procedure and operations models were discussed and found in order to ensure effective emergency management and operations. To sum up, evolvement mechanism and the methodology of risk assessment for HMTE had been demonstrated and studied by the numbers starting from the carding of existing theory in all fields and different countries. Rudiments of the basic and theoretical system have shaped and foundations for further study also have formed by this dissertation.更多还原