【作者】 巩航军；

【导师】 李百川；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 载运工具运用工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 我国高速公路隧道建设和管理起步较晚，对于高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价还停留在定性判断阶段，尚没有定量化的诊断方法和系统。为此，本文通过研究建立了一套高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价的定量化管理方法，并开发了相应的综合评价管理系统，为高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价和科学管理提供了手段和依据。从高速公路隧道运营现状出发，应用系统工程理论与方法，分析了高速公路隧道运营安全管理体制、隧道结构健康度、机电系统、火灾救援系统、交通安全系统和运营效果等准则层和指标层的意义，提出了高速公路隧道运营安全影响因素构成体系。在此基础上，运用AHP法建立了高速公路隧道运营安全层次结构分析模型，初步构建了高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价指标体系，结合Delphi法及优选法，通过定量筛选和定性修改等方法，建立了正式的高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价指标体系。通过比较分析，采用结合基于“功能驱动”的主观赋值法和“差异驱动”的客观赋值法的综合集成法，确定了各指标的权重。广泛参考现有国家有关高速公路隧道运营技术规范和养护等标准，设计了高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价指标体系各指标层定性和定量化的评分标准及安全综合评价量表。运用FS法建立了高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价数学模型，采用二次加权增加负熵的方法对评价主体指标进行量化处理。在此基础上，以Visual studio．net 2003作为开发平台，以关系型数据库服务器SQL Server 2000作为后台数据库之城，开发了高速公路隧道运营安全综合评价管理系统。以西柞高速公路终南山隧道、西汉高速公路秦岭1号隧道、黄延高速公路罗圈梁等隧道为实例，分别运用FS法和开发的管理系统进行了实践分析验证，结果表明，该评价指标体系和评价方法具有较好的实用性。在基于人工神经网络的BP算法学习和训练收敛后，运用训练后的网络对其它隧道进行了计算，其结果与FS法具有较高的一致性。选用Kendall和谐系数和Cronbachα系数分别对评价主体信度和指标体系内部一致性进行了考察。经实践检验，Kendall和谐系数具有显著性，表明安全综合评价具有意义；Cronbachα系数符合要求，表明综合评价指标体系具有良好的内部一致性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The start of our country freeway tunnel construction and the management are late, the safety evaluation of freeway operation tunnel in the qualitative is qualitative analysis stage, there is not quantitative diagnosis method and the system. Therefore, this paper established a set of safety comprehensive evaluation of freeway operation tunnel and developed the safety comprehensive evaluation management system of freeway operation tunnel, it has carried out quantitative appraisal and scientific management for the freeway operation tunnel.The paper introduced condition of our country freeway, put forward the application system analysis theory and the method based on the present situation of freeway operation tunnel, proposed the safety factor constitution system of influence freeway operation tunnel. After qualitative analysis to the system in the foundation of each influencing factor, unifies Delphi and preference methods, determined takes the appraisal path transportation enterprise security target the primary factor and established the safety comprehensive evaluation index system of freeway operation tunnel.Based on the safety theory of freeway operation tunnel, analyzed index of comprehensive evaluation index system of freeway operation tunnel, for example, management organization and management effect, structure health, mechanic and electrical systems, fire save system and traffic safety system significance.Reference existing country technology standard and maintenance of freeway operation tunnel, established the quality synthetic evaluation indicator system’s target level qualitative and the quantitative point scale of freeway operation tunnel. Analyzed the modern safety comprehensive evaluation methods, for example, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighting methods and comprehensive evaluation method.Established the factor the hierarchical structure anatomic model based on AHP, used unified based on the mean square method of difference’s objective evaluation law has determined the safe quality synthetic evaluation indicator system various targets weight based on the G1 method subjective valuation and the unbiased variance method. Utilizes the fuzzy mathematics quality synthetic evaluation theory and the method carries on the safe quality synthetic evaluation to the freeway operation tunnel, uses two time method of weighting to carry on quantification processing to the target, has constructed the freeway operation tunnel safe quality synthetic evaluation mathematical analysis model; Also utilized has carried on the computation based on the BP artificial neural networks algorithm to the freeway operation tunnel safe quality synthetic evaluation; Finally, the union concrete example, has carried on the practice analysis confirmation. Selected the Cronbach coefficient and the Kendall harmonious coefficient to appraise the letter to carry on the estimate. After the examination, has the remarkable significance, shows the freeway operation tunnel safe quality synthetic evaluation indicator system which the dynasty printed books topic establishes to have the good internal uniformity.Introduced the freeway operation tunnel safety quality synthetic evaluation management system management system’s development goal, the development environment, the function, the main feature and the work flow, detailed expound the management system management system realizes the process; Discourse the example management system management system’s application, confirmed the method validity and management system management system’s usability of safety quality synthetic evaluation diagnosis of the freeway operation tunnel.更多还原