【作者】 郝记秀；

【导师】 周伟；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 近年来，政府的高度重视、大量资金的投入和TOD发展模式的应用推动了我国城市公共交通的发展，一定程度上改善了城市的公共交通出行环境，然而却未能改变我国城市能源短缺、交通拥堵以及环境污染的尴尬局面。事实证明，公共交通追逐土地利用需求的发展方式已经无法适应城市的发展，如何构建公共交通与土地利用一体化发展的理论体系框架，以最终实现城市公共交通与土地利用的协调发展是本文研究的重点和意义。首先，在总结分析国内外公共交通与土地利用研究现状的基础上，从公共交通与土地利用的关系出发，分析了二者在微观上的“源流”互动反馈关系和宏观上的互相支撑关系。通过对微观上“源流”互动反馈关系的发展演变研究发现，这种反馈关系是基于土地利用开发为主导的，公共交通发展则是为满足土地利用开发对公共交通的出行需求而被动式发展。由于土地利用开发成熟的时间往往要滞后于公共交通供给能力达到上限值的时间，从而使得公共交通与土地利用最终无法实现协调发展。因此，要实现公共交通与土地利用的协调发展，必须采取公共交通供给能力控制土地利用开发的方法；通过对宏观上互相支撑关系的研究表明，采用不同的公共交通方式居民可忍受的土地利用规模不同；以土地利用开发为主导的被动式公共交通发展模式势必造成土地利用规模大大超出居民可忍受的范围，加之，以土地利用开发为主导的被动式公共交通发展模式忽视了公共交通具有引导城市土地利用扩展的作用，导致城市的土地利用扩展模式不合理，无法形成合理的土地利用布局形态。作为一种落实优先发展公共交通理念的方法，TOD发展模式将重视公共交通引导土地利用发展融入城市规划中，但是由于缺乏公共交通与土地利用一体化发展的理论指导，理念无法指导方法，致使TOD发展模式在我国一直未能发挥应有的作用。基于此，本文提出公共交通与土地利用一体化发展的概念，并界定了中心城区和新城的概念，从中心城区和新城的角度出发构建了公共交通与土地利用一体化发展的理论体系框架。通过对我国城市土地利用扩展历程的回顾，土地利用扩展从集中式发展阶段到组团式发展阶段，经历了与城市社会经济互相促进互相适应——不适应——重新适应的过程；在整个发展过程中，聚集经济是我国城市土地利用扩展的源动力，上个世纪末房改政策的实施诱发了城市土地利用扩展，而交通技术发展又是推动土地利用扩展的主要动力；基于此，本文总结了城市土地利用的扩展模式，并从城市功能分区的规划方法入手，分析认为采用非严格功能分区的走廊式轴向扩展模式和跳跃式多中心扩展模式是适宜我国大城市的土地利用扩展模式。尽管走廊式轴向扩展模式和跳跃式多中心扩展模式是适合我国大城市的土地利用扩展模式，然而我国城市尤其是大城市仍旧以集中式同心圆“摊大饼”式发展为主。基于此，本文首先综述了目前对城市规模的研究现状，认为城市用地规模是目前城市规模的核心，城市合理规模是随着经济社会等的发展动态变化的；其次，基于“门槛理论”建立了城市中心城区发展的合理规模的计算模型；再次，剖析了“摊大饼”式发展的经济学内在动力，并从“摊大饼”式发展的居民出行规律出发，研究得出适合不同土地利用扩展模式的不同城市规模范围。在分界域1以下时，即城市用地规模在[58，200]以下时适合进行集中“摊大饼”式发展；在分界域2以上时，即城市用地规模在[152，500]以上时，城市必须通过跳跃式多中心发展才能实现城市的可持续发展；在介于分界域1和分界域2时，城市可以通过走廊式轴向扩展模式进行发展，如果规划规模不会超过分界域2时不建议采取跳跃式多中心发展。并建立了跳跃式多中心发展模式中心城区与新城的合理距离范围的计算模型。最后，给出了案例分析。不同的城市土地利用扩展模式需要采取不同的公共交通与土地利用一体化发展策略，而TOD模式是实现公共交通与土地利用一体化发展的较好方法，因此，论文按照不同的土地利用扩展模式将TOD模式分为两种类型，并分别对两种类型TOD发展模式的核心问题进行了深入分析，最后构建了我国实施TOD开发模式的设计方法。根据上述研究成果，结合公共交通与土地利用涉及的不同利益集团参与方的利益，按照公共交通与土地利用一体化的概念及内涵分析，分别建立了两类TOD发展模式的公共交通与土地利用一体化发展评价指标体系，并运用德尔菲法对评价指标体系进行了筛选，并建立了相应的评价方法：对于第一类TOD发展模式采用给定标准前沿面的DEA评价方法；对于第二类TOD发展模式，首先将指标体系分为两层，提出了双层评价方法，对于第一层仍旧采用与第一类TOD发展模式同样的评价方法，然后对第一层评价结果进行加权平均获得第二层评价结果，并分别给出了算例分析。最后，论文设计了目前迫切需要采取的四项公共政策，一是建立高效统一的规划协调机制；二是建立与交通条件相适应的密度分区管理机制；三是构建友好的TOD社区慢行交通出行系统；四是构建分类公共交通财政补贴机制，并建立了补贴测算模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Recently, urban public transport in China has experienced a rapid development because of the high attention from the government authorities, huge capital investments, and the application of TOD (transit-oriented development). To a certain extent, it has improved the urban travel environment, however, serious problems such as energy shortage, traffic congestion and environmental pollutions have not been solved effectively. It is proved that land-use chase development mode of public transport has been unable to adapt to the development of the city. The emphasis and significance of the study is to explore and build a theoretical framework of integrated land use and public transport development in order to achieve the harmonious development of urban public transport and land use.First of all, it analyzes the interactive relationship between the public transport and land use, the matching relationship between the public transport network and land use layout patterns, as well as the relationship between public transport mode and the scale, price, strength, structure of land use. It is found out that land development plays a dominate role in the interactive relationship, while public transport keeps phase with demands of the urban land use. As the optimal land use development always comes later than the maximum supply of public transport, the public transport and land use can not achieve harmonious development in the end.Therefore, public transport supply should dominate the land use development. Diferent public transport modes bring with different affordable urban land scales, while the passive public transport mode dominated by land development always results in an over-large land scale which is far beyond the affordability of residents. What’s worse, the passive public transport mode could not play the orienting role of public transport in urban expansion, which results in unreasonable land use pattern. TOD should integrate public transit oriented land development into urban planning, however, due to the lack of theories of integrated public transport and land use development, TOD has not been successfully applied in China. The paper puts forward the definition of integrated public transport and land use development, identifies the difference between downtown areas and new district (satellite town), and constructs the theoretical framework of integrated development between public transport and land use.By reviewing the land use development process in China, it is found out that the land use experiences from centralized development to group development, and its relationship with urban socio-economy shifts from mutual adaptation to in-adaptation, and then to re-adaptation. Agglomerate economy is the motive source of urban land use in China in the entire development process. The implementation of housing reform policy elicited the urban land use expansion in the end of last century, and the transport technology development became the main motivation to promoting the land use development. The analysis shows that the corridor concept model and leaping multi-center model are the suitable expansion patterns in China’s big cities.Although the corridor development mode and multi-center development mode are more suitable to China, the "over pie" development mode is the dominate one in China, especially in China big cities. The paper reviews the current researches on city size. It holds that the land use scale is the key problem of the city’s size, and reasonable city size should be in phase with the social and economic development. The reasonable urban land use scale has been drawn out through the establishment of a model based on the threshold theory. The paper also analyzes the economical inner force of "over pie" development and finds out the match between city sizes with land use modes. It has indicated that there is two demarcation domains. "Over pie" development mode can be applied under domain 1 (with urban land use scale below [58, 200] ); while multi-center development mode suits to domain 2 (with land use scale above [152, 500]). The corridor development mode can be applied when the land use scale lies between domain 1 and domain 2. It is better not to apply multi-center development mode if the planning scale is below than domain 2. The calculation mode for the reasonal distance between downtown and new district is established. Study on specific cases is also conducted.Different urban expansion modes should be equipped with different policies of public transport and land use. By carrying out analyses on the TOD concept and connotation, it is proposed that the TOD model is a better way to implement the integrated development of public transport and land use. Two kinds of TOD devlopment modes, which is TOD modes 1 and TOD modes 2, is provided. And it is established to the design method of TOD model.According to the concept of integrated development of public transport and land use, two kinds of evaluation indicator systems for TOD 1 and TOD 2 are established by the analysis of relevant stakeholders of public transport and land use. And the evaluation indicater systems are selected using Delphi method. To the TOD 1 mode, DEA evaluation methods are used. To the TOD 2 mode, the two-layer evaluation method is proposed.At last, four major policy options are proposed. The first one is coordinated mechanism between transport, planning and land; the second is the density management mechanism in accord to the real traffic situations; the third is the construction and management of slow traffic system within TOD community; and the last one is the financial subsidy mechanism for public transport. The subsidy estimation model is also proposed.更多还原