【作者】 陈晞；

【导师】 朱孟楠；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 国际金融， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自香港、澳门回归后，中国形成了特有的“一国四币”的局面，CEPA签署后大陆与港澳地区的经济合作与交流被提升到制度化建设的层面，经济联系日益紧密。两岸关系在2008年实现“大三通”后有了一个质的变化，并为两岸经济合作的进一步发展开辟了新的机会；2008年全球金融危机爆发，促使两岸经济必然要进一步融合，以应对危机的挑战；这些都为中国货币一体化奠定了现实基础，且货币一体化将有助于中国实现统一，促成人民币国际化和是中国参与亚洲货币合作的战略平台，因此，本文的研究具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文从多个不同角度论证了中国货币一体化的必要性，考察了中国货币一体化的现实经济基础，即两岸三地间的经贸往来现状，与港澳台三地的汇率制度演变与未来可能的发展方向，并分析了在东亚货币合作的背景下，中国货币一体化与东亚货币合作的相互关系，通过SVAR模型进行实证检验，结果发现两岸三地目前并不构成最优货币区，在参考、借鉴了国际区域货币一体化和东西德货币统一的经验后，文章最后提出了中国货币一体化的复合模式，即人民币与港澳币以美元化形式，而人民币与新台币间则采用欧元模式，在两岸经济一体化的基础上逐步达到货币一体化的阶段，最后货币统一进程则依据现实情况，可采用以人民币或创建新货币为统一货币。本文贡献有以下几点：第一，目前全面涉及“两岸四币”、且论述货币一体化模式与步骤的文献基本上没有，本文首次提出中国货币一体化的模式应是复合模式，并对此做了相应的分析，具有一定的开拓性；第二，本文首次提出以欧元形式，从经济一体化起步逐渐发展到货币一体化阶段，从而实现人民币与新台币的一体化；第三，首次应用演化博弈模型，并结合当前国际现实，从国际货币体系的发展趋势角度来解释中国货币一体化的必要性。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the retum of Hong Kong and Macao,China has been in a unique situation,that is“one country,four currencies”.After the signing of CEPA,economiccooperation and exchanges among the mainland,Hong Kong and Macau have beenelevated to the level of institutional construction.In 2008 the cross-straits relationshipchanged substantially after fulfilling the big three links,which created a new chancefor further economic cooperation of cross-straits.In 2008 the outbreak of the globalfinancial crisis promoted the economic integration further between cross-straits inorder to cope with challenges confronted by crisis.These have laid a foundation forChinese monetary integration realistically.Monetary integration is helpful for countryreunion,promotes RMB internationalization and is a strategic platform for Chinajoining East Asia monetary cooperation as well.Therefore,the study has importanttheoretical and realistic significance.The article justifies the need of China monetary integration from different anglesand analyzes the realistic economic basis,which are the present state of economic andtrade exchanges among Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Mainland and the evolutionprocess and possible future development direction of exchange rate regimes of HongKong,Macao,Taiwan.It meanwhile analyzes the interrelation of East AsianMonetary Cooperation and China monetary integration in the context of East AsianMonetary Cooperation With the method of empirical analysis of SVAR model,theconclusion is got that is Mainland,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan can not constitutean optimal currency area at present.After reference to international experience,ahybrid model is used to integrate China’s four currencies including dollarization,Euromode,improving convergence model and conversion absorption model.The article has some contributions.The first is the study has sort of pioneeringmeaning with regard to Chinese monetary integration mode and steps。The view pointof mixed mode should be used in the process of monetary integration.The second isconceive and steps of cross-straits monetary integration based on the present politicaland economic situation and future dynamic trend.The third is evolution game theoryand the development trend of international currency system is first used to explain theneed of China monetary integration.更多还原