【作者】 温志强；

【导师】 吴春华；

【作者基本信息】 天津师范大学 ， 政治学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪人类面临的最大公害和敌人就是各种突发性的公共危机。危机不仅对各国政府管理体制提出了严峻挑战，还关系到社会的稳定和国家政权的生死存亡。各国政府都重视培养危机意识，建立和完善危机管理的组织体系和运行机制。因为公共危机无处不在，它可能来自自然灾害与环境的恶化、恐怖活动、经济与政治危机以及各种意外事故等各个领域。所以，人类必须时刻提高警惕，加快对各种危机的研究，建立起应对各种危机的机制和对策，未雨绸缪，以保证人类在新世纪健康、安全地生存与发展。社会转型期中国社会公共危机频发，尤其是2003年的非典和2008年的汶川特大地震，用鲜活的实践证明：把公共危机管理的目标从对突发事件前移到潜在危机风险、把管理重点从应急处置逐渐前移到对潜在危机的预防和应急所需资源的准备上来，是危机爆发后快速有效处置的根本保证。这对于高速发展的转型期国家来说是一项既具有理论价值又具有实践指导意义的重大课题。本文的研究以马克思主义理论为指导，坚持理论与实践相结合的原则：运用实证分析和文献分析的方法全面考察我国公共危机管理实践的成败；运用对比分析的方法，研究以处置为主的应急型公共危机管理与以准备为主的预防型公共危机管理的优劣，探索转型期如何构建公共危机管理的长效预防准备机制。本文共分六章内容，由一章导论和五章正文组成：第一章导论，从国内外关于公共危机管理的研究现状出发，在总结众多学者研究成果的基础上，提出本文研究预防准备型公共危机管理的理论价值和现实意义。提出在公共危机管理中，社会转型与公共危机管理处于相互影响的动态过程这一基本命题。基于此，通过对社会转型理论和社会风险管理理论的分析，提出本文研究的三个前提假设：社会转型大大增加了公共危机发生的潜在风险；应急处置型的公共危机管理体制不能更加有效地解决危机事件之前的社会风险问题；预防准备型的公共危机管理体制能够弥补应急处置型公共危机管理的不足，更有效地预防危机事件的发生，一旦防范失败，其充裕的准备也能够降低危机对社会的损害。并以上述假设为线索勾勒出本文的总体架构。第二章预防准备型公共危机管理的基本理论，在总结前人对公共危机以及公共危机管理的大量认识的基础上，结合本文对于公共危机管理的认识和理解，按照管理过程的时间顺序把公共危机管理的全过程分为四个阶段，即预防准备阶段、预报警戒阶段、应急处置阶段、恢复重建阶段，根据不同阶段管理对象和环境的不同，详细阐述管理内容的不同侧重点，以此说明预防准备阶段在整个公共危机管理全过程中的核心地位和重要意义。并从哲学、政府再造理论和中国古代天人合一思想的角度分析预防准备型公共危机管理的合理性和科学性。在此认识的基础上把公共危机管理分为应急处置型和预防准备型两种管理类型，相比应急处置型公共危机管理分析预防准备型公共危机管理在前瞻性、问题性、风险性和效能性等方面的优势，以此推论预防准备型公共危机管理必须具备预测、预见、预报、预防、预备、预案和预演等具体内容。这是本文的理论基础，在论述中力求突出本文的基本观点和假设。第三章构建预防准备型公共危机管理的价值分析，从文化、制度、体制和管理等四个角度分析构建预防准备型公共危机管理的必要性。首先有利于培养危机预防文化，能够树立预防思想，能够倡导安全文化，能够强化风险意识；其次，有利于降低政府的法制化治理的制度成本，能够降低制度协调成本，能够提高资源的利用效率；第三，有利于推进行政管理体制改革，能够弱化部门利益，能够提高应急指挥的统一协调性，能够提高危机管理的专业化水平；第四，有利于提高公共危机常态管理水平，能够提高对于危机风险的可控性，能够提高政府应急管理效能，能够减轻危机发生后的危害，能够降低次生衍生灾害的发生。这是本文对构建预防准备型公共危机管理的预期价值和意义探讨。第四章社会转型对预防准备型公共危机管理的影响，从两个视角对于转型期社会进行分析，一是从社会发展影响公共危机管理的基本规律出发，论证公共危机管理的内容受社会发展的影响和制约，而不同社会发展时期的基本特点决定着公共危机管理的基本形态结构和主要内容。重点分析社会转型期不确定性因素增多、社会矛盾突出、经济发展失衡、市场体制不完善、法律法规不健全、文化发展失衡以及全球化影响加深的基本社会特点。二是以风险社会理论为基础，分析转型期社会的灾害风险、现代化发展风险、制度风险、全球化风险、市场经济风险、社会阶层分化风险等日益频繁的社会风险。基于转型期社会不平衡增加和社会风险加大的认识，分析社会转型对预防准备型公共危机管理的理想状态是防止危机发生，公共危机管理的价值选择是以人为本，公共危机管理的目标是长治久安以及公共危机管理的核心内容是预防准备等几个公共危机管理的基本原则。并从公共危机特性的需要和公共危机管理长效机制的必然选择两个方面论证构建预防准备型公共危机管理机制的必然性。这也是本文提出“预防准备型公共危机管理”概念的理论思考。第五章预防准备型公共危机管理能够弥补应急处置管理所面临的困境，分别从文化视角、制度视角、体制视角和管理视角论证预防准备型公共危机管理不仅是社会发展的必然选择，而且也能够弥补现实中应急处置型公共危机管理所面临的由于过于强调应急而淡化了预防的关键性作用，由于应急规制分散导致管理依据混乱，由于临时组织机构的指挥而使得危机管理效能低下以及由于应急资源匮乏严重影响危机管理的绩效的现实困境。这也是本文提出“预防准备型公共危机管理”概念的现实分析。第六章完善预防准备型公共危机管理机制的路径选择，有针对性地提出了四个能够实现预防准备型公共危机管理长效治理目标的政策建议，即基于非常态管理的《紧急状态法》的制度调整，重点阐述《紧急状态法》的宪政依据、基本内容以及《紧急状态法》对于公共危机管理的规制性作用；基于大部制思想下常设公共危机管理职能体制建设，重点介绍中枢决策机构“国家安全委员会”和国家实体职能机构“紧急状态部”的构想，并分析“紧急状态部”对于公共危机的常态化管理作用；基于储备金制度的“社会发展风险基金”的预算，重点探讨“社会发展风险基金”的预算依据、资金来源、使用以及“社会发展风险基金”对于政府危机管理的保障作用；基于应急物资物流平台的“应急实物准备库”建设，重点分析“应急实物准备库”的物资来源、物流规划以及“应急实物准备库”对于应实物的急资源配置作用。这是本文的创新和重点所在，尤其是对于公共危机管理的机构的设置和准备基金的建设，是本文长期关注公共危机管理长效机制的深刻思索。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the 21 st century, the greatest enemy human being faced is a variety of hazards and unexpected public crisis, which not only puts forward a serious challenge to management system of all governments, but is related to social stability and the survival of the state power. Governments are keen to cultivate a sense of crisis, establish and improve organization system and operation mechanism of crisis management. Because public crisis is everywhere, which may be from natural disasters and environmental degradation, terrorism, economic and political crisis, as well as the fields of accident, mankind must be vigilant, accelerate research and establish a mechanism to deal with various crises and measures to take precautions to ensure human’s survival and development healthily and safely in the new century.In the period of social transformation, public crises have occurred frequently in Chinese society, especially the atypical pneumonia in 2003 and 2008 earthquake of Wenchuan, which shows lively: it is the fundamental guarantee to deal with a crisis quickly and efficiently to move the management goal of crisis from emergencies to the potential crisis, management focus from emergency response to the precaution of potential crisis and preparation of resources. This is a major subject with both theoretical value and practice guidance to the rapidly developing transforming countries.In this paper, with Marxist theory as a guide and principles of a combination of theory and practice the study adopts empirical analysis and literature study to analyze China’s success or failure of crisis management practices comprehensively; uses the method of comparative analysis to study strengths and weaknesses of the emergency public crisis management and preventive-oriented crisis management, and explore how to build a long-term prevention and preparation mechanism of crisis management.The paper is divided into six chapters, consisting of an introduction and five chapters:Chapter I introduction puts forward the theoretical value and practical significance of studying the management of preventing and preparing public crisis from present studies at home and abroad on the public crisis management, and on the basis of concluding researches of many scholars, and raises the basic proposition that in public crisis management, social transformation and public crisis management with mutual influence are in the dynamic process. Based on this, by analyzing the theory of social transformation and theory of social risk management, three assumptions are raised: social transformation public has greatly increased the potential risks of crisis; emergency type of public crisis management system can not resolve the crisis more effectively prior to the issue of social risk; preventing and preparing public crisis management system can make up for the emergency disposal of the public crisis management, more effectively prevent the occurrence of the crisis, once the preventions fail, its adequate preparation can reduce the damage to society. And the overall framework of this article is outlined according to the above assumptions.Chapter II the basic theory of preventing and preparing public crisis management, on summing up a large number of public awareness of public crisis and crisis management in the past and combining awareness and understanding of public crisis management in this article, the whole process of crisis management is divided into four stages in accordance with the chronological order, namely the prevention and preparation stage, forecast the warning stage, emergency stage, and restoration and reconstruction stage. According to different objects and environment in different stages, the author illustrates in detail the different management focus in order to display the core status and significance of prevention and preparation stage in the whole process of public crisis management. And from the philosophy, theory of reinventing government and the ancient Chinese theory of harmony between man and nature, the author analyzes the reasonability and scientific state of preventing and preparing public crisis management. In this understanding, the author divides public crisis management into emergency type and the preventing and preparing type, and analysis comparatively such of their characters as different forward-looking, problem, risk and performance to predict that preventing and preparing public crisis management must include the detail content of prediction, forecast, prevention, preparation, and rehearsal. This is the theoretical basis for this article, in the discourse of this article the author sought to highlight the basic concepts and assumptions.Chapter III, the analysis of the advantages of preventing and preparing public crisis management, analyzes the advantages of preventing and preparing public crisis management specifically from the angles of culture, system, mechanism, and management. First of all, it is beneficial to cultivating a culture of prevention, fostering the thought of prevention, advocating for the safety culture, and strengthening risk awareness; secondly, it is beneficial to reducing the government’s system coordination costs, and improving the efficiency of resource utilization; thirdly, it can help enhance the administrative management system, weaken the departments interests, improve the unified emergency command coordination, and improve the professional level of crisis management; fourthly it is beneficial to the promoting the norm of public crisis management, raising the controllability of crisis risk, improving the effectiveness of the government emergency management, lessening the harm after crisis, and reducing the occurrence of secondary disasters. This is the expected analysis on the construction of preventing and preparing public crisis management.Chapter IV, preventing and preparing public crisis management can make up for the difficulties faced by the management. From angles of culture, system, mechanism, and management, the author argues that preventing and preparing public crisis management not only is the inevitable choice for social development, but also makes up for such real difficulties faced by public crisis management as the key role is downplayed as a result of too much emphasis on emergency prevention, regulations chaos is caused by decentralized management, the proficiency is low as a result of the command of provisional organization, as well as performance of crisis management is affected by the lack of emergency resources. In this paper, this is the practical analysis of the concept "preventing and preparing public crisis management"."Chapter V, the influence of social transformation on preventing and preparing public crisis management, analyzes transforming society from two perspectives, first the author is from the awareness of basic laws of the influence of social development on public crisis management: the content of the public crisis management is influenced and constrained by social development, and the basic characteristics of different social development period determine the basic form of the structure and main content of public crisis management. The author analyzes such basic social characteristics in the period of social transformation as the increase of uncertainties, the prominence of social conflicts, the imbalance between economic development, the imperfection of market institutions, inadequate laws and regulations, and imbalance of cultural development, as well as the deeper impact of globalization. Second, according to theory of social risk, the author analyzes some increasing social risks such as the disaster risk, the risk of modernization, the system risks, the risk of globalization, the risk of market economy, the risk of social stratification. Based on the awareness of the increase of social imbalance and social risk, the author analyzes some basic laws of public crisis management: the ideal state of social transformation to preventing and preparing public crisis management is to prevent the crisis; the value selection of public crisis management is people-oriented; the aim of public crisis management is long-term stability public; the core elements of public crisis management is prevention and preparation. Also the necessity of the construction of crisis management mechanisms is argued from the needs of public crisis characteristics, and the inevitable choice of the long-term mechanism of crisis management. In this paper, this is theoretical thinking of the concept of "preventing and preparing public crisis management".Chapter VI, the path selection of perfecting preventing and preparing public crisis management mechanism, puts forward four policy recommendations to achieve the long-term management objectives of preventing and preparing public crisis management, that is focusing on the constitutional basis, the basic content as well as the controlling role of Emergency Law on public crisis management; introducing the thinking of the central decision-making agency "National Security Council" and state entity institutions "Emergency Department"; analyzing the normal management functions of "Emergency Department" to public crisis management; mainly exploring the budget, funding sources, and use of "social development risk fund" in accordance with its budget, as well as its guarantee function to government crisis management; mainly analyzing the source material, logistics planning, as well as the role of resource allocation of "emergency preparation treasury" based on the building emergency supplies. In this paper, this is the focus and innovation, and especially the construction of institutions and ready fund of public crisis management is the profound long-term thinking of public crisis management mechanism.更多还原