【作者】 刘莉；

【导师】 谢礼立；

【作者基本信息】 中国地震局工程力学研究所 ， 防灾减灾工程及防护工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市防震减灾能力的评价研究作为国家防震减灾工作的核心内容之一,关乎人民生命财产安全和社会可持续发展,是一项基础性和公益性研究工作,对于构建社会主义和谐社会和完成国务院2004年所提出的“在未来的十五年内(2020年以前)使我国基本具备综合抗御6级左右、相当于各地区地震基本烈度的地震能力,大中城市、经济发达地区的防震减灾能力力争达到中等发达国家的水平”目标具有重要意义。城市防震减灾能力的评价研究起步较晚,是地震工程研究的难点和热点课题之一,更是现代社会对地震工程界提出的一个亟待解决的问题。本文进行的城市防震减灾能力标定及可接受风险研究不仅可以使城市灾害损失定量化评价成为可能,而且可为评价城市防震减灾能力提供客观的度量标准,有助于科学合理地指导城市的防震减灾决策。本文在广泛收集城市各类灾害资料的基础上,结合现有的城市防震减灾研究成果,运用经济学和运筹学基本原理,进一步改进和完善了原有城市防震减灾能力的评价方法,优化了城市防震减灾能力的评估体系,构建了一个更加科学合理的评价城市防震减灾能力的评估模型,主要研究内容如下:1、完善了城市防震减灾能力评价体系根据评价城市防震减灾能力的三大准则(城市遭遇地震时可能发生的人员伤亡、经济损失和震后恢复时间)和影响这三大准则的六大指标(城市地震危险性分析能力、城市地震监测和预报能力、城市工程性设施抗震能力、城市政治经济社会人文的影响能力、城市灾害管理能力和城市震后应急救助及恢复重建能力)的具体内容及其影响范围,完善并发展了其下的各个子系统,优化形成了完整的城市防震减灾能力评估体系框架。收集并整理各个领域的专家调查意见,考虑到在群组决策时,由于客观事实的复杂性和人的认识的多样性,会出现一些特殊的情况,因此,本文采用了改进的层次分析法,即针对信息不全的层次分析方法和不确定型的层次分析方法,充分有效的利用了所收集到的全部的专家意见,提取了更多的有效信息,得到了更为全面和准确的三大准则和六大指标的权重。同时根据各个指标系统内部不同评价目标的特性,对各个指标的子系统的权重也进行了计算和分析,使得城市防震减灾能力评价体系更加合理有效。2、提出了工程性设施抗震能力的评价方法根据建(构)筑物和生命线系统对城市防震减灾能力的不同作用方式,采取了有针对性的评价方法。根据“七五”～“十一五”期间的震害预测资料,确定了影响城市建(构)筑物抗震能力的四个因素,即抗震设防情况、建筑年代、结构类型和场地条件,并采用基于性态的抗震设防思想,建立了城市建构筑物抗震能力指数的评价方法。提出了生命线系统防震减灾能力的评价方法。一方面考虑生命线系统各个子系统对城市防震减灾能力的单独作用,根据专家调查意见,应用熵权双基准法,对各项信息进行无量纲化(功效系数法)处理,计算出各项信息的权重,然后在信息表中确定两个基准点(理想点和反理想点),再计算出各项子系统在整体评价中的优属度,确定了各个系统的单独作用。另一方面,考虑生命线系统各个子系统之间存在的耦联关系,根据我国“七五～九五”期间所作过震害预测的城市和1993年以来进行过地震损失评估的城市统计结果,采用偏相关分析方法,评价了各个子系统之间相互作用的大小。最后将这二者结合,综合了主观意见和客观资料,从而可以有效合理的评价生命线系统各个子系统的防震减灾能力。3、建议了地震灾害可接受风险的界定标准首次在地震灾害的评价体系中引入风险管理的概念,详细阐述了可接受风险的基本概念和可接受风险的评价过程及方法,同时结合各个国家及不同行业的可接受风险标准,在统计我国多年来各类自然灾害和人为灾难的损失结果、以及多次破坏性地震的震害调查资料的基础上,建议了我国地震灾害可接受风险的界定标准。4、提出了综合度量城市防震减灾能力的参数及计算方法运用模糊数学中的灰色关联度原理,将城市防震减灾能力评价体系中的各个子系统的抗震能力综合成为度量城市防震减灾能力的参数,建立了基于灰色关联度的多目标决策模型。在此基础上,建议了划分城市防震减灾能力强弱的标准。同时,利用本文所提出的基于灰色关联度的多目标决策模型对国内外十个城市的防震减灾能力进行了评价,验证了本文该模型的合理性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cities’disaster reduction is the important component of the national public security. It is important for the people’s personal safety and property and society’s sustainable development. In 2004, China government put forward that the cities with dense population or developed economy and the area off the seashore should have ability to resist earthquake(M=6) before 2020. It is really a challenge for researchers to evaluate the cities’ability reducing earthquake disaster. It will provide an objective criterion for evaluating and comparing city’s ability reducing earthquake disasters among various cities, and it will also give advices to decision on reducing earthquake disaster.Based on the current research achievements on reducing earthquake disaster, and used the theory of the economics, operations research and other disciplines related to it, this paper is setting up an index system about evaluating cities’ability reducing earthquake disasters. It carries out research from the following several aspects:1. Set up the the index system on city’s ability reducing earthquake disastersThe conception of cities’ability reducing earthquake is presented, the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements– the seismic casualty and economic loss during the certain earthquake and the recovery time after the certain earthquake. Based on these three elements, six factors affecting cities’ability reducing earthquake disasters are proposed–seismic hazard analysis, earthquake monitor and prediction, the capacity on building resisting earthquake damage, the influence of the urban political, economic, social and cultural factors, ability on cities’disaster management, and ability on earthquake hazard mitigation and rescue. In accordance with the specific content of the various indicators and its impact, this paper improves and develops its various subsystems, forming a complete urban earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capability assessment framework.Collecting and collating all the views of experts in different fields by surveying, and using the improved analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of the three criteria and six indicators. At the same time, according to the characteristics of different evaluation targets, combined with the theory of the entropy two-base-point and partial correlation analysis, this paper calculates all the weight of the system, and it forms a complete evaluation system for evaluating cites’capacity on reducing earthquake disaster.2、Put forward methods on evaluating the capacity of the various indicators on resistancing earthquake disasterBecause various factors play various role in index system, this paper applies the different methods to evaluate the factors’ability on reducing earthquake disaster.First of all, according the data of the sevel earthquakes damage prediction from“75”and Wenchuan earthquake survey, this paper determines the weight value of four factors (earthquake resistance condition, construction time, structure type and location condition) to impact the capacity of build to anti-seismic damage, while the four factors proposed the method to evaluate the capacity of structures in seismic index.Secondly, it uses two-base-point method to evaluate the urban lifeline system satisfaction, and determines its capacity in urban earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation.At last, the method of dual base-point is proposed to evaluate the satisfaction condition of lifelines’performance after earthquake, consequently to gain the value of lifeline system in index system.3、Proposed the method of computing seismic casualty, economic loss and recovery time(1)According to the results on the earthquake damage prediction of a number of cities from " 95 " Plan, it statistics and regression the relationship between the builds’anti-seismic capacity and the personnel casualty rates. At the same time, considering other factors, it also calculates the relationship between different seismic intensity factors under the anti-seismic capacity and casualties.(2)First, about direct economic loss, the relation between the seismic ability index of structures and structural loss and belongings loss are gained utilizing the cities’prediction results of earthquake disasters which are made during the period of 95. Then, it calculates the earthquake indirect economic losses by considering the ability to anti-seismic structure, socio-economic structure and the other five indicators of seismic capacity. Finally, considering the relevant provisions on Chinese earthquake emergency rescue, it obtains the direct investment on the earthquake disaster relief. Combinating by three parts, the total value of economic losses by the earthquake could be determined.(3)According the ATC-13 report of FEMA, the recovery time of various damage condition are gained statistically. The according to the conception of recovery time this paper defined, the method of computing recovery time is presented.4、research on acceptable risk level for cities’ability in reducing earthquake disastersIt presents the study on the acceptable risk level for city’s ability in reducing earthquake disasters. The so-called acceptable risk level refers to the threshold for the safety level based on the risk analysis and assessment. It defines the acceptable risk levels for the corresponding risk-prevention measures, including failure probability and the consequences of measure failure, such as human casualty and economic loss, etc. In more detailed way, the paper has discussed the methods to use ALARP principle and F-N curve to determine the acceptable risk and their applications in the city’s ability in reducing earthquake disasters. However, it remains a controversial issue to make accurate assessment of the acceptable risk level in the actual situations, which is still left be solved through the joint efforts of the governmental departments, engineers, scholars and the public concerned.5、suggest the method of computing the comprehensive index on city’s seismic ability and some examplesBased on the concept of fuzzy membership function, the urban earthquake disaster prevention and mitigation capability index is calculated by the capacity of the various subsystems in reducing earthquake disasters. And on this basis, it proposes the standard on dividing the ability to resist the different intensity earthquakes.At the same time, Making use of evaluation model mentioned above, ten cities home and abroad is evaluated on their ability reducing earthquake disaster, and then causes about these cities’seismic ability difference are demonstrated.更多还原