【作者】 杨实俊；

【导师】 牛东晓；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学（河北） ， 技术经济及管理， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 本文对可持续发展约束下小型火电厂危机管理进行了研究,分析了我国小型火电厂的生存现状和目前面临的困难,并且针对电力需求采用科学的方法进行分析和预测,为小火电未来的发展提供借鉴。针对小型火电厂目前的生存状念建立了一套完整的综合评价指标,提出了综合评价体系,最后重点分析了小型火电厂面对困难需要采取的措施。介绍了可持续发展约束下小型火电厂危机管理国内外研究现状及可持续发展理论的发展历程、定义以及火力发电企业可持续发展的发展方向。对企业危机管理的内涵、目的和作用进行了探讨,分析了企业危机管理理论的方法。分析了我国小型火电厂发展面临的问题及原因,其中包括我国小型火电厂的发展历程、现状和种类。认为我国小火电面临的主要问题是能源消耗高、环境污染严重、火用效率低。而产生这些问题的原因则主要集中于国家的宏观政策,煤炭的燃烧问题,小火电的设备、技术、运行管理状况不容乐观,环境污染问题,企业的人员比较多,企业管理水平比较低。针对我国目前的发展现状,提出了小型火电厂面对危机管理的需求预测分析,从宏观上分析我国电力的供需状况。利用遗传算法优化神经网络建立了中长期负荷预测模型,并且利用我国改革丌放30年的电力需求量与第一,第二,第三产业生产总值,人口数量的关系进行预测。利用历史数据进行案例分析,得到了良好的预测效果。对小型火电厂生存状态进行评价。首先进行了指标体系的建立,包括经济评价指标,其中有财务评价指标和国民经济评价指标;影响评价指标,包括环境影响评价指标和社会影响评价指标:可持续发展评价指标等。采用支持向量机模型对火电厂影响进行评价, SVM模型能够在小样本计算中表现出良好的泛化性能,这样数据相对容易获取,提高了SVM的训练速度和精度。测试结果表明,该模型具有很高的分类正确率,可以较好地应用于电厂影响评价系统中。介绍了可持续发展约束下小型火电厂危机管理,包括小型火电厂危机管理的原则,分别是理性化原则,透明化原则,学习原则,沟通原则,制度化原则,人员调度原则和实时决策原则;小型火电厂危机管理机制的建立,包括小型火电厂危机管理机制框架,小型火电厂危机管理流程和危机管理组织构架建设;小型火电厂危机处理的措施,介绍了12种小型克服危机的方法和措施;最后提出了小型火电厂危机恢复管理机制,其中包括恢复生产经营秩序,稳定员工队伍,重建声誉,危机的总结,确立自觉履行社会责任的企业伦理,集中发展核心业务等。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, it researched on crisis management of small scale thermal power plants based on the sustainable development. The survival condition and the difficults which the small scale thermal power plant are facing were analysed, and made analysis and forecasting for the demand of electricity with scientific approach which can be given reference for the future development of Small thermal power plants. It also built a set of comprehensive evaluation index system for the current survival conditon of the small scale thermal power plant, and done evaluation with some methods. At last, it made major analysis of the measurement that small scale thermal power plants should be adoptted to settle these difficults.Based on the sustainable development condition, it introduced the research state of crisis management of small scale thermal power plants at home and abroad. Tthe development course, definition of the sustainable development theory were introduced, and it also described the development direction of thermal power plants. The connotation, the purpose, the effect and the methods of the enterprise crisis management theory were discussed respectively.It analysed problems and reasons which the small-scale power plant are facing, it also included the development course, development condition and the specie of the small-scale power plant. We believed that the main problems of the small-scale power plant faced are high energy consumption, serious pollution and low efficiency of the use of fire. The reasons for these problems are mainly concentrated in the macroeconomic policies of our country, the issue of coal combustion, the equipment, technology, operation and management of small thermal power are not optimistic, the problem of environmental pollution, more persons in enterprises, enterprise management level is relatively low and so on.In view of the current development status, it made forecating of electricity demand and analysed the electricity supply and demand of our country in macroscopy. It built long-mid term power load forecasting modle based on the optimizing of GA-BP neural network, it forecasted with relation between the electricity demand and the GDP of the first, second, third industries, the population amount with thirty years’data of our country. With this method, it could be get more accurate forecasting result.Evaluated the survival state of small thermal power plants. Firstly, it analysed the index system, they were economic evaluation index in which contains financial evaluation index and national economy valuation index; influencial evaluation index in which contained environment effects evaluation index and social effects evaluation index; sustainable development evaluation index and so on. It made research of power plant impact evaluation system based on SVM. SVM model can be shown a good generalization performance when calculated with small samples, and the data is relatively easy to access, these can improved SVM training speed and accuracy. Test results were shown that the model had a high rate of correct classification and could be better used in power plant impact assessment system.It introduced the crisis management of small scale thermal power plants based on the sustainable development. Firstly, it analysed the crisis management principle of small scale thermal power plants, they were rational principles, the principle of transparency, principles of learning, communication principle, the principle of institutionalized, staff scheduling principles and the principle of real-time decision-making; Secondly, it described the building of crisis management mechanism in small thermal power plants, it includes the framework for crisis management mechanism of small thermal power plants, crisis management processes and building of the organization of the crisis management framework, management measures in which introduced 12 kinds of small ways to overcome the crisis and measures; Finally, it put forward the crisis recovery management mechanism for small-scale thermal power plants, they were the restoration of order in the production and management, stabilize the staff team, rebuild the reputation, crisis generalization, and establishes business ethics to fulfill their social responsibility, focuses on core business development, and so on.更多还原