【作者】 王立荣；

【导师】 刘力臻；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 自20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,国际货币体系进入了浮动汇率合法化的牙买加体系时代。至此,国际货币制度经历了从国际金本位制→布雷顿森林体系→牙买加体系的演变过程。每一次国际货币制度的演变,无不伴随着某种形式的货币危机。尤其是20世纪90年代后期以来,世界范围内货币危机频发,因此,对各种类型货币危机发生机理、传导途径及防范措施的研究再次引起了理论界的重视;货币危机、金融危机的频发,也引发了人们对当前国际货币制度有效性的再思考。伴随着欧元的顺利启动、拉美美元化趋势扩展及东亚货币合作的不断深入,国际货币制度即将进入美元区域化兼国际化、欧元欧洲化兼国际化、东亚货币合作化的三大国际区域货币并存的发展阶段。本文即从国际货币制度演变的视角,顺沿国际货币制度发展、更迭的过程,详细分析每种国际货币制度下货币危机的形成机理。本文主要包括这样几部分:首先,对论文中涉及到的重要概念给予界定,并对货币危机理论进行系统梳理;接着,按时间顺序从总体上回忆国际货币制度的历史演进;然后,用三个章节分别研究了固定汇率制度、浮动汇率制度以及中间汇率制度下货币危机的形成机理,其中,固定汇率制度下的货币危机主要包括国际金本位制度和布雷顿森林体系的崩溃,以及欧洲货币体系的瓦解;浮动汇率制度下的货币危机,则重点分析了自由浮动汇率制度下汇率的过度波动问题;中间汇率制度下的货币危机,分别分析了区域美元本位及货币局制度下货币危机的发生机理;最后,分析了目前新型区域货币合作模式出现的必然性,及各模式下如何规避货币危机。基于国际货币制度演变视角,分析历次货币危机的深层次原因,我们发现国际货币制度的演变发展遵循着否定之否定的原则,在固定汇率和浮动汇率之间不断更迭;国际货币体系也经历了自发形成到人为地建立起国际间的协调原则的过程。通过对不同汇率制度下典型货币危机发生机理的研究,得到这样的结论:以贵金属黄金或某一强国货币作为国际本位货币的国际货币制度是行不通的,是终将走向灭亡的,国际货币体系未来的变革趋势应该是创造一种既不依赖于黄金、又不依赖于某一单一强国货币的超主权的世界货币,以避免主权世界货币的内在缺陷;而目前出现的国际间区域货币合作模式,则是国际货币制度演变的必经阶段。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the 70s of 20th century, the international monetary system has entered in Jamaica System, in which floating exchange rate becomes legitimate. Since then, the international monetary system has gone through from the international gold standard to Bretton Woods System, then the Jamaica System. Every evolution was accompanied by some form of currency crisis. Especially in the second half of 90’s of last century, the worldwide currency crises broke out frequently. So the study of the mechanism and contagion path and preventive measures of various types of currency crises has aroused the attention of the theory circle once again, and the rethinking of the effectiveness of Jamaica System. Along with the smooth startup of the euro, the expansion of dollarization in Latin America and evolution of East Asian monetary cooperation, the international monetary system is entering a new stage, which is characterized by the regionalization and internationalization of U.S., the Europeanization and internationalization of euro, co-operation of East Asian currencies.In this paper, with the perspective of the evolution of international monetary system, a detailed analysis of the mechanism of currency crises under each type international monetary system will be made. This paper includes several parts: first, some important concepts of the thesis have been defined, a theoretical overview of currency crisis has been finished; then, we have described the history of the international monetary system; later, three chapes have been arranged to discuss the mechanism of currency crisis under fixed and floating and intermediate exchange rate system respectively. The part of the fixed exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of the collapse of the international gold standard system, the Bretton Woods system and the the European Monetary System; in the part of the floating exchange rate system, the volatility problem under freely floating exchange rate system has been studied; the part of the intermediate exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of currency crises in regional dollar standard system and the currency board system. And finally, we have analysed the inevitability of the appearance of new type regional monetary cooperation patterns, and how these cooperations avoid currency crises.Based on the perspective of the evolution of the international monetary system, we have analysed the deep-rooted reasons of typical currency crises, then we find that the evolution of the international monetary system follows the principle of negation of negation, changes between the fixed and the floating exchange rate. The international monetary system has also experienced a process from spontaneously formed to artificially established. After the study of the mechanism of typical currency crises under different exchange rate regimes, we obtain the conclusion that it is unfeasible to use gold or some strong currency as international currency standard. The future trends of reform must be the creation of a new international currency which is independent of gold and some strong currency, this reform can avoid the inherent defects of monetary sovereignty as the international currency. While the appearance of international and regional monetary cooperation is a necessary step in the evolution of international monetary system.更多还原