【作者】 佟志军；

【导师】 张继权； 王野乔；

【作者基本信息】 东北师范大学 ， 环境规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 草原火灾是影响草地畜牧业持续稳定发展的重要干扰因素。草原火灾突发性强、危害大,给经济建设、社会安定带来巨大影响,严重制约着我国畜牧业生产稳定发展,同时也对人民的生存环境乃至国土安全构成严重威胁。以我国北方重要畜牧区-内蒙古锡林郭勒盟为研究区,针对我国草原火灾科学基础研究和草原火灾应急管理中的薄弱环节,通过对草原火灾静态风险评价、草原火灾动态风险评价、草原火灾应急决策技术的研究,最后通过系统集成建立草原火灾应急管理与决策支持系统。本研究在了解草原火灾的特点的基础上,通过对草原火灾风险影响因子的量化,结合自然灾害风险评价理论,即自然灾害风险是由自然灾害危险性(Hazard)、暴露性(Exposure)、承灾体的脆弱性或易损性(Vulnerability)和防灾减灾能力(Emergency response & recovery capability)共同影响的结果,利用AHP方法确定各因子对草原火灾风险的贡献率,建立草原火灾静态风险评价指标体系,并通过BP人工神经网络进行验证,实现草原火灾静态风险评价,并绘制锡林郭勒盟草原火灾静态风险图谱。利用遥感和地理信息系统技术,以锡林郭勒盟境内2006年4月5日发生的草原火灾为例,探讨利用EOS/MODIS遥感数据快速提取草原火灾过火区和过火面积方法,并结合草地资源数据、基础地理信息数据、社会经济数据等地面特征数据建立了草原火灾动态风险评价模型,从而实现草原火灾动态风险评介。在草原火灾静态风险评价和动态风险评价的基础上,利用地理信息系统的空间分析(如叠加分析、网络分析等)功能,探讨了锡林郭勒盟草原火灾应急资源的优化布局和应急调度的方法,提出了锡林郭勒盟草原火灾应急资源优化布局方案,基于此并结合锡林郭勒盟境内2006年4月5日发生的草原火灾为例进行应急救援方案制定。通过草原火灾应急系统总体结构设计、数据组织和建模、系统功能关键模块设计,利用GIS技术、数据库技术和网络技术等进行系统集成,建立集草原火灾静态风险评价、草原火灾动态风险评价、草原火灾应急资源优化布局和应急调度等功能于一体的草原火灾应急管理与决策支持系统。该系统是本研究的最终研究成果,它的实际应用将为草原火灾管理部门提供高效实用的工具,提高草原火灾应急管理的科学化和信息化水平。本研究形成比较完善的草原火灾应急管理技术体系,进而为管理部门做好灾前预警、实时监测、灾后快速反应及制定科学的防灾减灾对策提供及时、准确的信息服务和决策技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 Grassland fire disaster is one of the most important factors which influence the sustainable development of grassland agriculture seriously. Owing to its great suddenness and harmfulness, grassland fire disaster affects economic construction, social stability and seriously hampers the stabilizing production of stockbreeding; meanwhile, it badly threatens the people’s living environment and homeland security.Choosing Xilingol, an important cattle-producing area in north China, as the study area, aiming to the weakness of fundamental researches and emergency management in grassland fire disaster science, this paper studied on static risk assessment, dynamic risk assessment, emergency decision management technology of grassland fire disaster, and finally established the grassland fire disaster emergency management and decision support system by integrating these functional modules.Based on the theory of nature disaster risk, namely the nature disaster risk is influenced by hazard of environment, exposure and vulnerability of hazard-affected body and emergency response & recovery capability of society, an index system for risk assessment was set up through analyzing the characteristics of grassland fire disaster and quantifying of influence factors. The contribution rates of factors were calculated by AHP and the assessment results were verified by artificial neural network. Then a static risk map of grassland fire disaster in Xilingol was presented.By remote sensing and GIS technology, the paper discussed to fast monitor and compute burning area based on EOS/MODIS data in the case study, the grassland fire disaster which occurred in April 5, 2006 in Xilingol, then set up the grassland fire disaster dynamic risk assessment model combining with grassland resource data, basal geographic information, social and socioeconomic data and so on, which to realize grassland fire dynamic risk assessment.On the basis of static and dynamic risk assessment of grassland fire disaster, the spatial analysis of GIS such as overlay analysis and network analysis were used to study the optimized distribution of resources for grassland fire disaster emergency management. And a proposal of emergency rescue service for the grassland fire occurred in April 5, 2006 in Xilingol was made.Finally, the risk emergency management and decision support system for grassland fire disaster was integrated by system frame structure design, data organizing and modeling, system function design based on GIS, database technology and network technology and so on. The system integrated the modules of static risk assessment, dynamic risk assessment, and resources optimized distribution of grassland fire disaster. The integrated system is a final researching production which will be an efficient tool for grassland fire administration sections and improve scientific and informational level of grassland fire emergency management.In this paper, a well-defined technology system for grassland fire disaster management is set up,which could provide real-time information and technical support for administration sections to make decision of early warning, real-time monitoring and emergency responding.更多还原