【作者】 宋蔚；

【导师】 王淼；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 渔业经济与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文从海洋渔业转型的相关概念及中国海洋渔业转型的现状入手,通过确定海洋渔业转型系统的目标体系,从而构建了中国海洋渔业转型的系统动力学仿真模型。在阐明影响中国海洋渔业转型目标实现的问题与障碍之后,详细研究了中国海洋渔业转型系统的内部运行策略和外部运行策略。利用评估指标体系,最后对山东省海洋渔业转型进行了实证研究。具体内容如下:第一部分,阐述了渔业、海洋渔业的概念与内涵,指出了海洋渔业转型的含义和特点。介绍了系统动力学和评估目标体系,为之后的研究打下基础。第二部分,介绍了中国海洋渔业的现状,提出中国实行海洋渔业转型的必要性和必然性。并介绍了国外对于转型的相关经验。第三部分,对于中国海洋渔业转型进行全面规划,明确转型的总体目标和各子目标及其具体内容,设计中国海洋渔业转型的目标体系。第四部分,根据中国海洋渔业转型的目标体系,结合系统动力学有关研究,构建中国海洋渔业转型系统动力学模型。通过分析影响中国海洋渔业转型的主要因素,构建转型系统的总体框架及转型系统的因果反馈图,建立系统流图及方程。第五部分,分别从转型的内部目标和外部目标考虑,阐述了实现中国海洋渔业转型目标的问题与障碍。接下来,研究中国海洋渔业转型体系的内部运行策略。针对实现转型内部目标的问题与障碍,对中国海洋捕捞业、养殖业、水产品加工业等原有传统行业进行科学规划,同时提出发展远洋渔业、第三产业的思路。探讨了中国海洋渔业企业重组、剩余劳动力的转移问题。研究中国海洋渔业转型系统的外部运行策略。着重探讨了海洋渔业开发过程中环境的保护、海洋渔业产业政策的制定、海洋渔业法律法规的健全和执法能力的增强、海洋渔业科技的发展等问题。第六部分,结合海洋渔业转型体系的框架,构建中国海洋渔业转型的评估指标体系。根据指标体系设立的指导思想,设计了相应的指标体系以及评价方法。第七部分,根据中国海洋渔业转型的基本目标和评估指标体系,以山东省的海洋渔业转型状况作为调研和实证研究的对象,并以实调研究的结果进一步考证和完善中国海洋渔业转型的目标体系与转型模型。最后,进行总结指出文章的不足,及对进一步研究的展望。本文取得的研究成果包括:第一,较为系统的对中国海洋渔业转型进行了研究。以产业结构调整为核心而不是以表面的渔民转产转业为主要内容,将渔民转产转业视为产业结构调整的必然产物来研究海洋渔业转型,建立系统仿真模型。第二,根据中国海洋渔业发展现状制定了一套详细的转型目标体系,以此作为深入分析,建立量化模型的基础。并依据系统动力学模型框架结合分析实现中国海洋渔业转型目标的问题与障碍,得出较为详尽完整的中国海洋渔业转型的运行策略。为实际中海洋渔业转型和发展政策、措施的制定起到参考作用。第三,论文通过分析海洋渔业转型的制约因素,探讨海洋渔业转型系统的结构与特征,在分析系统动力学与海洋渔业发展研究的关系基础上,基于Vensim-PLE系统仿真建模软件建立了海洋渔业转型系统动力学模型,开创了用新的系统仿真模拟软件工具研究海洋渔业转型的新局面。第四,论文在分析指标体系的功能与内涵的基础上,对海洋渔业转型评估指标体系进行了研究,根据海洋渔业转型体系的复杂程度,分四个层次,构建了相应的海洋渔业转型评估指标体系框架,并讨论了指标标准化与赋权方法,具有一定的推广应用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article starts with deep research of marine fishery transition and China’s marine fishery transition background and current situation. By establishing the marine fishery transition system target, the Chinese marine fishery transition system dynamic (SD) model is constituted. After research on the internal and external executive regulations and clearly stating the barriers that it is facing to finalize the target on marine fishery transition, it conclude the marine fishery transition in Shandong Province by evaluation standards as empirical study.Section one: make statement of the concept and content about fishery industry and marine fishery, concept of marine fishery transition and its characteristics.Introduce system dynamic (SD) and evaluation standards for the next research.Section two: state current situation related to Chinese marine fishery. Propose the necessity of marine fishery transition. State the ovearseas advanced expertise.Section three: establish the layout of Chinese marine fishery transition, define the overall objective and sub targets, design the objective system of China’s marine fishery transition. Section four: based on objective system of China’s marine fishery transition and system science thought, the SD model is established. By analyzing the mains facts which influence the marine fishery transition, it designs the system blueprint and causal feedback map, system flowchart and formulas.Section five: listed the obstructions of marine fishery transition by investigating internal and external objects. by studying the internal execution system of marine fishery transition, find the future plan on the traditional industries like ocean fishing industry、aquatic farming、the aquatic processing . And put forward the suggestion of developing on pelagic fishery.Treat the problem of reshuffle of the fishery enterprises and the transfer of surplus labor.by studying the external execution system of marine fishery transition, treat the problem of fishery intermediary organizations、oceanographic technology development、industrial policies、protection of fishery environment. Sections six: based on the system blueprint from the previous section, it setup the Chinese marine fishery system evaluation standards. Based on the polestar and principle of establishing system of evaluate indices, the appraisal index system is established and the correlative evaluating method is designed.Sections seven: based on objective system of China’s marine fishery transition and appraisal index system, make the empirical study of Shandong’s marine fishery transition. Then further improve the system of appraisal index system and transition model.Last sections: The last chapter is the part of summary and prospect. This article carries on the limitation and review to the whole text and points out further studied direction. The creational works of this article focus on:First, study the China’s marine fishery transition in detail. To adjust the industrial structure as the core rather than the transfer of surplus fishery labor, considered the transfer of surplus fishery labor as outcome of industrial restructuring to study the transition of marine fishery, the establishment of dynamic simulation model, created a new perspective.Second, based on marine fishery development of our country make a set of detailed objective system in transition, as analyzed in depth, set up the basis of quantitative models. Study the internal and external execution system of marine fishery transition.Third, through analyzing the restriction factor, this article discusses the system structure and characteristic and designs the SD model by the software of Vensim-PLE in the foundation of analyzing the relation of system dynamics and marine fisheries transition. Then, this article discusses the quantification method of marine fisheries transition system. Create a new system using simulation software tools to study a new situation of marine fishery transition.Forth, under the foundation of analyzing the index system’s function and connotation, this article study appraisal index system and divide into four levels according to marine fishery transition system of the complexity. Then design the appraisal index system, and discusses the method of selecting index and giving weigh.更多还原