【作者】 张婧；

【导师】 孙英兰；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 胶州湾位于黄海之滨,山东半岛的南岸的半封闭海湾,是青岛的宝库,拥有优美的环境和丰富的资源,湾内港口航运、船舶修造、海洋水产、盐业化工、沿岸工业、旅游等各个行业发达。对青岛市经济发展有着举足轻重的地位。随着胶州湾沿岸经济的快速发展,人口压力的不断增大,人类向海湾攫取资源和空间的活动不断加剧,资源短缺、环境恶化等矛盾日益突出,已成为制约可持续发展的重要因素。安全通常是指主体存在的一种不受威胁、没有威胁的状态。生态安全是指一个国家或人类社会生存和发展所需的生态环境处于不受或少受破坏与威胁的状态。随着人口的增长和社会经济的发展,由环境退化和生态破坏及其所引发的环境灾害和生态灾难对区域发展、国家安全、社会进步的威胁越来越大。生态安全问题成为了理论和实际都亟待解决的问题。本论文利用胶州湾的调查数据和有关统计资料,对胶州湾海岸带的生态环境现状进行了初步分析。从压力、状态、响应三个子系统着手分析,构筑了包括资源压力、人口压力、环境压力、经济压力、生态灾害、海湾状况、环境质量状况、生态状况、生态系统自身功能、生态系统服务功能、压力调整状况、状态修复状况以及经济政策调整等16个方面43个指标的胶州湾海岸带生态安全评价体系,进行了相关指标体系的定量化预测探讨;对每个指标进行敏感度分析,并基于敏感分析的结果进行海岸带生态安全调控与管理的相关研究,提出胶州湾海岸带生态系统管理的调控措施,探索生态安全研究与海岸带综合管理的对接方法,提出为政府海岸带综合管理提供决策支持。论文的研究内容及成果有:1.基于胶州湾海岸带生态系统现状的系统分析及因子甄别,构造了包括压力、状态、响应三个子系统43个指标的胶州湾海岸带生态安全评价体系,并分别利用综合指数法和模糊评价法评价了1998、2001、2004、2007年的胶州湾海岸带生态安全状况。结果表明:(1) 1998年到2007年胶州湾海岸带生态安全指数,总体上呈现先下降后好转趋势,但都属于预警范畴,从模糊评价来看,四个年份对各个评价等级的隶属度都是对预警状态的隶属度为最高,其生态安全状态总体上属于预警状态;(2)子系统层面,自1998年以来,压力子系统的变化趋势是呈恶化趋势,状态子系统,呈现出先下降后好转的发展态势,响应子系统,一直呈稳步好转的趋势。2.构造了包括海洋环境数值模型、EwE生态模型以及灰色预测模型的胶州湾海岸带生态安全预测体系,实现了海岸带生态安全的定量化预测;并对2020年胶州湾海岸带生态安全状况进行了远景分析。结果表明:(1) 2010年胶州湾海岸带生态安全指数为0.5923,仍处于“预警”状态。压力子系统的预测值已经处在“较危险”状态。但下降趋势有所减缓。状态子系统的安全指数有所回升,而响应子系统的提升最为明显,响应子系统在预测结果中已达到“安全”状态;(2)2020年的海岸带生态安全指数为0.6017,2020年的压力安全指数与2010年相比仍有所降低,响应安全指数有微弱提高,而状态安全指数呈上升趋势,总体来看,2020年的生态安全状况比2010年有所好转。3.根据子系统分级管理分级调控的思路对胶州湾海岸带生态安全评价体系中三个子系统以及相应的每个指标调整,并对其敏感度进行分析。结果表明:改变压力子系统的各项指标时,敏感度为1.94,是四种情景中敏感度最大的一种,说明压力子系统对总系统生态安全的贡献率较大,若对其进行调控,效果将比较明显。改变总系统中的各项指标时,对各个指标进行了敏感度分析并根据结果进行排序,确定出对于整个生态安全系统状态的改变比较明显的敏感因子主要来自于环境污染和资源利用。4.基于对指标的敏感度分析,分别对敏感分析中敏感度排序在前的主要影响因子如环境污染和资源利用进行调控,并一一提出相应的维护、管理和完善措施。用科学的发展观指导经济社会与环境的协调发展;加强立法和执法维护生态安全;建立维护生态安全的监督管理体制;建立维护生态安全的市场运行机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Located at the shore of Yellow Sea, Jiaozhou Bay is a semi-enclosed bay at the southern shore of Shandong Peninsula. Being the treasure-house of Qingdao, it has beautiful environment and rich resources, and the industries there, like shipping, shipbuilding, marine fishery, salt and chemical industries, coast industry and tourism, are highly developed, so it plays a significant part in the economic development of Qingdao city. As the rapid coastal economic development of Jiaozhou Bay, the continuous increasing of population pressure and the more resource and space people grab from the bay, contradictions, such as resource shortage and environmental deterioration are becoming increasingly outstanding, which seriously restrict sustainable development.Security usually refers to a status that the subject is not threatened. Ecological security means the ecological environment, which a country or a society need in order to survive and develop, is not or little destroyed and threatened. As the population growth and development of social economy, the environmental and ecological disasters caused by environmental degradation and ecological destruction are more and more threatening regional development, national security and social progress. Ecological security has become a big issue demanding prompt solution for both theory and practice.This paper makes a preliminary analysis about the ecological environment of the coastal zone of Jiaozhou Bay, using its survey and related statistical data. Based on three subsystems of pressure, status and response, the paper constructs a ecological security evaluation system of Jiaozhou Bay’s coastal zone, which has 16 aspects and 43 indexs, including resource pressure, population pressure, environmental pressure, economic pressure, ecological disaster, bay status, environmental quality status, ecological status, ecological system’s own function and service function, pressure regulating condition, state repairing condition and adjustment of economic polocies, and it carry out a quantitative prediction study of related index system; this paper does sensitivity analysis about every index, and research on the regulation and management of coastal zone’s ecological security based on the results of sensitivity analysis; the paper brings forward the regulation measures of the ecological system management of Jiaozhou Bay’s coastal zone, discuss the docking method of ecological security research and comprehensive management of coastal zone, and advance decision support for government’s comprehensive management of coastal zones.The research content and results are as following:1.Based on the system analysis and factor discrimination of the Jiaozhou Bay coastl zone’s ecosystem situation, the paper constructs a ecological security evaluation system including 43 indexs of three subsystems of pressure, status and response, and evaluate the ecological security states of Jiaozhou Bay’s coastal zone in 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2007, using comprehensive index method and fuzzy evaluation method.The results show that :(1) From 1998 to 2007, Jiaozhou Bay coastal zone’s ecological security index’s general trend is declining first and then rising but is always in the area of early warning. The fuzzy evaluation shows that the indexs of four years all have a highest membership degree with early warning state out of every evaluation grades; the general ecological security state is in the area of early warning. (2) On the subsystem level, from 1998, the pressure subsystem has a deterioration trend; the status subsystem has a trend of rising after declining; the response subsystem has a positive trend.This paper constructs a ecological security prediction system of Jiaozhou Bay’s coastal zone, including marine environmental numerical model, EwE ecological model and grey prediction model, and achieve quantitative prediction on coastal zone’s ecological security; the paper also makes a prospect analysis of the ecological security state of Jiaozhou Bay’s coastal zone in 2020.The results show that: (1) In 2010, the ecological index will be 0.5923 which still refers to early warning. The predictive value of pressure subsystem is in the state of‘quite dangerous’. But the decline trend gets slow. The status subsystem’s security index is picking up, while the response subsystem has the most evident rise to the state of‘safe’. (2) In 2020, the ecological security index of coastal zone is 0.6017. The security index of pressure subsystem still becomes lower than 2010, and the response subsystem has a little rise, while the status subsystem has a positive trend. Generally, the ecological security state of 2020 is better than that of 2010.2.According to the thought of managing and regulating at the level of subsystem, the paper adjusts the three subsystems and corresponding indexs, and carry out a sensitivity analysis.The results show that: When changing the indexs of the pressure subsystem, the sensitivity is 1.94, the biggest one out of four conditions; this means the pressure subsystem has a quite big contribution rate to the total system’s ecological security, and if regulating it, the effect will be quite evident. When changing the indexs of the total system, sensitivity analysis on every index has been carried out . It shows that environment pollution and resource utilization are the two main sensitive factors which has quite evident effect on the state of the total ecological security system.3.Based on the sensitivity analysis on indexs, the paper respectively regulates the main impact factors which has a high rank such as environmental pollution and resource utilization, and bring forward corresponding maintaining, managing and perfecting measures. Develop economic society and environment in harmony under the guide of scientific development view; reinforce legislation and execution, extablish a supervision and management system to maintain ecological security, and set up market operation mechanism in order to maintain ecological security.更多还原