【作者】 付会；

【导师】 孙英兰；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 环境规划与管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 随着海洋经济的快速发展,海洋资源的掠夺性开发与沿海环境污染都很严重,海洋资源短缺、环境污染与生态破坏已成为今后海洋经济发展的主要限制性因素。在这种情况下,迫切需要研究海洋生态系统承载能力,协调人类活动,保证海洋的持续发展。本研究在探讨海洋生态承载力的内涵和特征的基础上,建立了系统动力学模型、状态评价模型及多目标规划模型,以青岛市为例进行实证研究,为区域海洋管理、海洋开发提供科学依据和决策支持。研究成果及结论主要包括以下几个方面:1.对海洋生态承载力的内涵、特征及其影响因素进行了剖析,指出海洋生态承载力包括资源可持续供给能力、生态环境纳污能力、人类支持力和生态弹性力四个方面,它受到自然因素、人为因素和主观因素的影响。2.构建了海洋生态承载力系统动力学(System Dynamic, SD)模型、状态空间评价模型和多目标规划模型。SD模型包括人口、经济、海洋环境污染和海洋资源4个子模块。评价模型中,构建了一套包括压力、支持力和区域交流三大类的评价指标体系。多目标规划模型的建立则是以生态承载力、人口总量和海洋产业产值为目标函数,从海洋环境容量约束、资源约束入手。3.以状态空间评价模型为基础,对青岛市海洋生态承载力现状评价。结果表明:1998～2007年,青岛市海洋生态系统处于超载状态,呈波动式变化,逐步向满载区靠近;压力过大是导致超载的主要原因,1998～2003年经济发展压力占主导地位,到2004～2007年环境污染与资源利用发展成为主要压力。系统的支持能力发展缓慢,其略微的提升主要是来自人类支持能力的提高;受胶州湾无机氮、COD剩余环境容量的影响,青岛市环境纳污能力呈降低趋势。4.根据现状评价结果,压力过大,支持力低下、发展缓慢是青岛市海洋生态承载力面临的主要问题,污染物排放量、胶州湾剩余环境容量是青岛市海洋生态承载力的主要限制因素。为此,需将限制因素作为生态调控的主要对象,从调节需求、调节供给两方面入手进行青岛市海洋生态调控。5.在SD模型的基础上,模拟了青岛市人口、经济变化趋势和海洋环境污染状况。结果表明:人口总数呈增加趋势,模拟结果较规划值偏低;GDP呈指数增长,第三产业比重稳步提升;万元产值工业废水排放量明显下降,但由于工业产值总量的增长,工业污染仍呈现缓慢增长的趋势;生活污水排放量占总污水的比重逐年增大,三个重要水平年的比重分别为64.8%、66.91%和71.9%。COD、氨氮和活性磷酸盐负荷逐年增加,到2020年其污染负荷分别为39541 t.a-1、8237 t.a-1和329 t.a-1,2007年青岛海岸带各污染源产生的氮负荷比较结果为:降水>农业非点源>生活污染源>工业污染源>旅游业污染源,磷负荷比较结果为:农业非点源>生活污染源>工业污染源>降水>旅游业污染源,说明农业非点源污染的控制已经非常重要。6.结合青岛市相关规划,开展海洋生态承载力预测研究。针对青岛市海洋生态承载力面临的主要问题,设计了现状发展模式和改进发展模式两种预测情景,并定性分析“环湾保护、拥湾发展”战略下承载状况的变化。结果表明:与1998～2007年相比,两种方案下未来13年青岛市的海洋生态承载状况都有明显好转。方案一下的未来生态承载状况总体呈恶化趋势,到“十三五”期间将发展为超载;方案二下的承载状况逐渐好转,由满载逐渐变为可载,改进的发展模式对青岛市海洋生态承载状况的改善效果显著。“环湾保护、拥湾发展”战略的实施将减轻海洋生态系统的压力,提高支持力和区域交流能力,改善海洋生态承载状况。文章最后对全文工作进行了总结,并提出了有待进一步研究的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of marine economy, both marine resource over-exploitation and coastal water pollution are obvious gradually. Furthermore, the development of ocean exploitation and marine economy will been annually intensified in the future. Therefore, the conflict between the limited carrying capacity and the increasing marine exploitation activities is becoming more and more prominent. In this situation, it is high time to study the marine ecological carrying capacity(MECC) in order to ensure the sustainable development of marine economy. By introducing the connotation and characteristic of MECC, the system dynamic(SD) model, state-space evaluation model and multi-objective programming(MOP) model were established in this paper, which can provide the scientific proof and decision support for ocean development and management. The main contents and research results are as follows:1.The connotation, charter and influencing factors of MECC were analyzed, which includes the sustainable supply capacity of marine resources, pollution receiving capacity of ecological environment, human supporting ability and ecological elastic capability. The marine ecological carrying capacity was influenced by natural factors, human factors and subjective factors.2.The SD model, state-space evaluation model and MOP model of MECC were established. The SD model contained four sub-modules, which were population submodule, economy submodule, marine environmental pollution submodule and marine resources submodule. A set of assessment indicator system, including pressure indicators, support indicators and regional exchange indicators, was established in evaluation model. Meanwhile, taking ecological carrying capacity, population and total output value of marine industry as the objective function, and considering the constraints of marine environment carrying capacity and marine resouces, the study have tried to set up MOP model. 3.The MECC of Qingdao was evaluated by state-space evaluation model. The results show that the MECC fluctuated from 1998 to 2007, and the marine ecosystem was overloading. The main reason for this is that system stress is too large. From 1998 to 2003 the economic development was the dominant stress, but environmental pollution and resource use turn into a major stress from 2004 to 2007. The system support ability slightly heightened, which caused by the increase of human support ability.4.According to the evluation results, it is found that, too high pressure and a slow development of low support ability are the major problem of MECC in Qingdao. The principal limiting factors are pollutant emission and surplus environmental carrying capacity of Jiaozhou Bay. So, we should start from regulation demand and supply to carry out ecological regulation, and the two limiting factors can be regarded as the objects of regulation control.5.The SD model was used to simulate the change tendency of population, economy and marine environmental pollution in Qingdao. The simulation results revealed that the population showed an increasing trend, and the simulation results lower than the value of planning. The GDP performed exponential growth, and the proportion of tertiary industry promoted steady. The industrial wastewater discharge per ten thousand RMB production value decreased yearly, while the total diacharege of main pollutants increased gradually. In the total sewage, the domestic dewage occupied a larger proportion, at 2010, 2015 and 2020, the value were 64.8%, 66.91% and 71.9%, respectively. COD, ammonia nitrogen and active phosphate load has increased year by year, whose load are 39541 t.a-1, 8237 t.a-1 and 329 t.a-1, respectively, in 2020. In 2007, the nitrogen pollution load from different sources was in the order of precipitation source(PS)>agricultural non-point source(ANPS)>domestic wastewater(DW)>industrial wastewater(IW)>tourism wasterwater(TW), while phosphorus pollution load was ANPS>DW>IW>PS>TW.6.The SD model also used to forecast the MECC, combining with the relevant planning in Qingdao. Two scenarios were developed based on the main problems facing the MECC in Qingdao from 2008 to 2020. ScenarioⅠrepresents ecosystem changes under the present module, whereas scenarioⅡreflects ecosystem changes under improved development, including the decrease of pollutant emission, and the promotion of human support ability. The effects of these two scenarios on the marine ecosystem were modeled. The results indicates that the carrying status of marine ecosyetem will significantly be improved under two scenarios compared with the period of 1998 to 2007. Under scenarioⅠ, the carrying status of marine ecosyetem will be worsening in the coming thirteen years, which will be over-loading in the period of 13th five-year plan. Under scenarioⅡ, the carrying status of marine ecosyetem in Qingdao will be improved gradually, which turn into over-loaded from loaded. Furthermore, the paper also qualitativly analysed the change tendency of MECC under the recently released government policy, which is named“Protection Along the Bay, Development Around the Bay”for Qingdao. We find that the carrying status of marine ecosyetem in Qingdao will be improved better when the policy is implemented. The implement of the policy, not only release the ecosystem preesure, but also enhance the support ability and regional exchange capacity.At the end, the research work is summarized and a perspective on the future research is made.更多还原