【作者】 李波；

【导师】 晏艳阳；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 金融学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 经过几十年的发展,我国企业并购市场取得了长足的进步,已经与刚刚起步时有天壤之别。然而另一方面,在经济增长快速发展,且先进的并购技术手段作用日益凸现的背景下,近年来的企业并购却常常招人诟病,而国内资产贱卖于国外和国有资产流失的呼声也从来没有断过,那么个中原因何在?另外,虽然企业并购的定量化和事后效果研究一直被视为解释企业并购的重要因素,但现有研究侧重于简单的整体数据处理,而缺乏对企业具体并购时价值的确定过程和影响并购价值的关键变量的深入探讨。有鉴于此,本文在结合马克思的价值规律、费雪的资产定价原理、奈特的不确定性与利润理论以及现有的研究成果的基础上,借助于均衡理论、离散随机过程、模糊随机函数等主流经济学理论和现代计量经济学和数学分析方法,从理论和实证两个层面对企业并购的价值确定进行了研究,并据此来提出确定企业并购价值方法,实现企业并购价值合理化的建议。本文首先立足于中国企业发展的阶段性与特殊性,在对比国外的并购历史和企业价值理念后表明:虽然企业并购价值的确定方式千变万化,但是深入探讨马克思的企业价值理论和西方的企业价值理论可以发现,有关企业价值的理念是一脉相通的,企业未来价值的折现仍旧是解释企业并购价值的最好方法,而目前关于其并购价值的判定却常常忽视了价值评定中最重要的部分。在此基础上,本文通过对比不同的价值理论和其实质联系,选取企业未来价值和折现率作为研究的切入点,通过不断的深入和放开理论假定,提出了一个研究企业价值的综合分析框架:并购历史价值波动的启示——企业并购价值理论和并购动因——并购价值模型的建立和实证——引入预期不确定性的模型改进,并在最后对企业并购价值的事后验证进行了深入的分析。与现有的研究相比,该分析框架既从一定程度上有效弥补了片面强调事后检验法即历史统计就是真理的缺陷,又突出了企业并购价值确定中最重要的影响因素。更为重要的是,该分析框架总结现有的理论方法,通过对不同的理论方法的实质内涵研究并引入不同的数学处理方式,同时揭示了实际企业并购价值确定中的关键变量,即预期在企业价值并购中的主导地位,毋庸置疑,随着中国企业并购市场化进程的不断推进,在企业并购的价值确定中这些重要变量将起到至关重要的作用。本文进一步对所提出的研究企业并购价值的综合分析框架进行了经验研究,也即企业并购效率的测定,本文采用临床诊断的方法,结合现有的方法针对文中提到的企业并购进行了范例式的分析。最后,基于本文的理论分析和实证结论,提出了缩小企业并购价值谬误的相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 After several decades of development, China’s M & A market has already poles apart from the original model. However, in the base of rapid development of economic growth and advanced technological means had already highlighted the growing role of context, the recent corporate mergers and acquisitions are often Criticized by the public, on the other hand voice of the loss of state domestic assets and foreign assets buying the domestic assets in a very cheap price which apparent lack of fair has never broken off. Then what is the reason?In addition, although the quantitative and after-effects of research M & A has been explained as an important factor in M & A, but the research has focused on the overall simple data processing. It’s lack of in-depth study the value of the key variables during specific corporate mergers and acquisitions what determining the value of the process and impact of mergers and acquisitions. In view of this, in the base of the previous studies, based on the help of corporate value theory, equilibrium theory, and other modern mainstream economic theory and econometric, mathematical analysis method, I have studied form two levels of including theoretical and empirical sides of the value of M & A, and accordingly to make accurate determination of the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions. In the end, I also have given the rationalize proposal of the value of the mergers and acquisitions of enterprises.In this paper, first based on the phased and particularity development of Chinese enterprises, in contrast with foreign acquisition history has showed that: Although there are many ways determine the value of the enterprise M & A, but discounted the future value of the enterprise is still value of enterprise M & A. On the basis of this and by comparing the different theories and the value of its real link, I selected the enterprise value of the future and the discount rate as the entry point for research. After continuous in-depth and open theoretical assumptions, I have proposed a comprehensive research enterprise value of the analytical framework of history Contrast-enterprise value of mergers and acquisitions-the value of the calculation and improvements-the expected introduction of uncertainty. And in the final of the paper I also have in-depth conducted the efficiency of M & A. Compared with the existing research, this analytical framework from make up the statistical shortcomings to some extent for a one-sided emphasis on effective after which means that in the future history always is the truth, and highlights the most important factor value in the enterprise M & A. More importantly, the analysis concluded the framework of the existing theory, used the theory of different ways through studying real meaning of different studies and the mathematical approach to reveal the key variables in the actual value of M & A that expectation is in the leading position in the decision of the Enterprise value during mergers and acquisitions. There is no doubt that as the continuous progress of the China’s M & A market process, these key variables will play a crucial role in determining the value of corporate mergers and acquisitions.Further study of this article is analysised by the value of M & A comprehensive analysis framework for empirical research, that is, the efficiency of M & A. In view of this paper using the clinical diagnosis methods and combining the existing methods mentioned in the text of this article, I have analyzed the efficiency of the Enterprise M & A as an example. Finally, based on this paper, the theoretical analysis and empirical conclusions, we have proposed reducing the value of M & A fallacy of the relevant recommendations.更多还原