【作者】 周学农；

【导师】 陈收；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 我国是世界上受自然灾害影响最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多、发生频度高、每年造成的损失都超过上千亿元。今年的南方特大冰雪灾、震撼世人的汶川大地震均暴露出我国基础设施的安全隐患和应急管理体系的不完善,迫切需要我们科学系统地研究突发公共事件的防范、预警及应对机制和措施。突发雪灾事件是一种严重的公共突发事件,其存在的主要问题是全社会对雪灾事件的事前预警规划不足。以往研究从管理学角度出发,以火灾、地震、公共卫生和化学污染等公共突发事件为研究背景的应急管理体系研究。而雪灾突发事件的特征及其影响机制决定着现有的研究成果难以适应雪灾过程中的交通应急管理问题。通过加强应急管理,建立健全社会预警机制、突发公共事件应急机制和社会动员机制,制定一套系统的应急方案将我国的社会安全稳定发展具有重要的理论与实践意义。本文以湖南省冰雪灾为背景和切入点,以城市公路交通网络为分析对象,研究突发灾害对交通的影响机理,探讨交通应急管理建设方面的内容。文章首先总结了各种危机管理理论,在对危机、危机管理进行界定的基础上对危机管理研究动态与理论进行总结。然后在从危机预警与危机处理两个方面进行细分,综述了目前的危机管理研究动态。接着是国内外应急管理体系的比较,分别从应急管理法律体系、组织体系、管理机制、应急指挥系统与指挥中心等方面总结了美国、俄罗斯、日本的应急管理体系,通过对这三个发达国家应急管理体系的比较分析得出对我国应急管理体系的启示。再试图通过建立高速公路交通流量的预测模型,分析高速公路交通流量的季节性特征。并对京珠高速公路湖南段的交通流量进行预测分析,在湖南特大冰雪灾害此突发事件的基础上进行突发事件对交通流量的影响分析。然后在总结了自然灾害损失估计方法的基础上,对2008年湖南冰雪灾的天气与交通状况进行了描述,分别从车流量减少、堵塞车辆情况与交通事故情况对冰雪灾中湖南高速公路交通进行损失估算。第六章则从运筹角度出发,通过建立突发性灾害中高速公路交通分流的目标规划模型预,从高速公路管理者和驾驶者的角度出发来分析突发性灾害下高速公路分流路径的选择,研究突发性灾害中高速公路交通的分流体系与优化,并对2008年突发冰雪灾中京珠高速湖南段分流体系优化进行实证分析。第七章则从建立强有力的灾害管理机制、灾害的快速反应机制和灾害管理中的信息披露机制、加快灾害管理的立法进程、建立有效的社会动员机制以提高危机的社会应对能力、加强处理灾害的科技储备、加强交通基础建设、解决交通瓶颈问题等六大方面提出了相应的政策建议。本文研究的核心是应急管理体系的建设,特别是高速公路应急管理体系的建设。为政府应对突发事件的应急管理的研究提供了重要的思路和方法,为应急管理理论、方法和应用的进一步研究打下了一定的基础,并对中国应急管理体系建设进程作了一定贡献。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of countries which suffer from natural disaster severely. The disaster is in wide varieties and happens frequently, and the loss is above 100,000,000,000 Yuan each year. The ice-snow disaster and the Wenchuan earthquake both discovered the potential safety hazards of infrastructure and emergency management system’s imperfection, which urged us studying on the prevention of the public emergency, the early warning system and the countermeasures.The ice-snow disaster is a severe public emergency, in which the most important question is the lacking of the early warning planning. The past study on emergency management is from the perspective of the management, and under the background of the events of fire disaster, earthquake, public health, chemical pollutions. However, the characteristic and influence mechanism of ice-snow disaster have challenged the present emergency management system. By strengthen the emergency management, construction of the social early warning mechanism, the emergent event mechanism and the social mobilization mechanisms, as well as building up a public emergency system are meaningful to the national security.This paper from the background of the ice-snow disaster in Hunan province, and makes an analysis to the influence mechanism to study the traffic emergency management. This paper, first sums up different kinds of the emergency management theory, and then summarizes the present emergency management research trends. And then it makes a review to the emergency management from the angle of emergency early warning and emergency treating. Furthermore, it compares the emergency management system in home and abroad, such as America, Russia, Japan, from the perspective of the law system, organization system, and management system and emergency command system to get the enlightenments for China. Based on the prediction model, it tries to make an analysis to the seasonal characteristic of the public traffic and make a prediction to the Beijing-zhuhai expressway in Hunan province, and make an analysis of the ice-snow disaster on the traffic flow. After summing up estimation method in the natural disaster loss, it describes the weather and the traffic of the Hunan ice-snow disaster in 2008, and it estimates the loss from the perspective of the declining of the vehicle flow, blockage and the traffic event. The sixth chapter builds up the goal programming model to make an analysis to the path selection in the emergent event from the angle of the driver and manager, and make a study on the shunt system and optimization, and make an empirical analysis to the optimal shunt system to the ice-snow disaster in Hunan province in 2008. The seventh chapter provides some advices from the views of the disaster management system, the treatment system and the information disclosure mechanism, quicken the building up of the disaster management law, the mobilization mechanism to improve the social ability to handle the emergency, the science-tech reserve, the basic traffic infrastructure and the measures to cope with the traffic bottleneck.This paper focuses on the emergent management system, especially the emergency management, to provide some methods for emergency management of the emergent event, and it promotes the study on the theories, methods and application in emergency management and makes some devotions to the building up of the emergency management system.更多还原