【作者】 杨艳涛；

【导师】 许世卫；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 食物安全问题已成为国内乃至国际关注的焦点。近年来,在国际食品安全形势严峻的情况下,我国食品安全事件也频频发生,已充分暴露出我国加工农产品质量安全管理体制中出现的问题。我国加工农产品质量安全管理应由目前的事后管理模式尽快转变为事前管理模式。在此背景之下,本研究以食物安全基本理论、经济学理论和经济预警基本理论为依据,应用系统研究、定量与定性相结合、比较研究、理论与实证相结合的研究方法,对加工农产品质量安全预警进行了研究。目的在于从宏观管理的角度,建立加工农产品质量安全预警体系,对我国目前可能发生的加工农产品质量安全的隐患进行分析,做到防患于未然。主要研究内容包括以下几个方面:对加工农产品质量安全预警研究相关的理论进行了分析。对本研究中相关的概念进行界定,从食物安全基本理论入手,总结加工农产品质量安全发展的一般规律;从经济学理论角度,分析加工农产品质量安全的信用品特性以及公共物品属性;借鉴经济预警理论,提出加工农产品质量安全预警的概念以及加工农产品质量安全预警的原理及方法。以明确警义为目的,对我国加工农产品质量安全的现状进行了分析。我国加工农产品质量安全的总体现状:质量安全水平不断提高,但是总体形势不容乐观。具体分析了我国目前农产品加工业发展的特点,从质量安全管理的角度指出我国农产品加工业发展中存在的问题,对我国加工农产品质量安全管理中存在的问题进行了阐述。分析了影响加工农产品质量安全的因素,即是加工农产品质量安全警情的警源因素。把影响加工农产品质量安全的因素,按管理程控制因素分为内生警源和外生警源,其中内生警源分为加工原料安全水平、加工辅料使用安全水平、加工环境卫生管理水平和加工技术安全管理水平,外生警源分为国家监管全水平、消费者食品安全意识水平和农产品加工业发展水平,每一方面的因素都包含多方面的子因素。从分析警素的方面,对加工农产品质量安全指标体系的建立进行研究。根据所做的“加工农产品质量安全指标体系专家咨询问卷调查”101份问卷表的统计与分析结果,建立了理想指标体系;根据数据可获得性原则和定量原则,将理想指标体系(26个指标)调整为实用指标体系(18个指标),并根据综合指数法确定指标权重。对加工农产品质量安全预警模型的建立进行了研究。根据Delphi法建立了总警度评价预警模型,采用时间序列平滑预测法及曲线趋势外推法对实用指标体系中18个预警指标的预测模型的方法进行探讨,确定了18个单一指标及综合指数的警限值。运用所收集的历史数据,对我国加工农产品质量安全进行了实证研究。借助SPSS17.0软件,应用曲线估计和指数平滑预测模型,并结合定性分析,对18个指标的未来状况进行了短期预测。对18个单一指标及总警度2002年至2007年的警情进行评价分析,并对2008年、2009年的趋势进行预警分析。最后,从国家监管、产业建设、科技支撑、信息共享等四个方面,对提高我国加工农产品质量安全管理水平提出政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food safety problems of domestic and international has become the focus of attention. In recent years, with the international food safety grim situation, China’s food safety accidents occurred frequently. The problems of processed agricultural products’quality safety management system have fully exposed in China. Chinese processed agricultural products’quality safety management should change manage mode from the current event management mode to advance management mode. Basing on this background, according to food safety basic theory, economics theory and economic early-warning basic theory, applying the method of systems research ,quantitative and qualitative analysis, comparison, combining theory and empirical research, processed agricultural products’quality safety early-warning was studied in this thesis. The purpose is, at the angle of macro management, to establish early-warning system, to find possible dangers of processed agricultural products’quality safety in China, to nip in the bud. The main research contents include the following aspects.The theory related processed agricultural products’quality safety early-warning is analyzed. At first, the paper defines related concepts. In related theory analysis, from the basic theories of food safety, the general development rule of processed agricultural products’quality safety is summarized. From the Angle of economics theory, processed agricultural products’quality safety has the attribute of credit article and public goods. Based on economic early-warning theory, this paper proposes the concept, principle and method of processed agricultural products’quality safety early-warning.From the purpose of clarifying early-warning meanings, the current of processed agricultural products’quality safety in our country is analyzed. The overall situation is following: the level of quality safety is being improved, but the overall situation is not optimistic. The characteristics of agricultural product processing development is detailed analysis .From the angle of management of quality safety ,the paper points out problems existing in agricultural product processing development of our country, and discusses the problems existing in the quality safety management.The influence factors of processed agricultural products’quality safety are analyzed.They are the warning source of processed agricultural products’quality safety. The influence factors are divided into endogenous and exogenous source according to the process control factors. The endogenous source includes: the level of materials safety, the level of adminicle use safety, the level of environmental hygiene management and the level of processing technology safety management.The exogenous source includes the level of national supervision, the level of consumer food safety consciousness and the level of agricultural product processing development. Every aspect includes various factors.From the analysis of warning elements, the index system of processed agricultural products’quality safety is studied. According to the statistics and analysis results of 101 expert consultation questionnaires about the index system, the idea index system is established. Then the idea index system (including 26 indexes) is adjusted into practical index system (including 26 indexes) basing on the principle of data’s availability and quantification. The comprehensive index method is applied to calculate the index weight.The paper studies the early warning model of processed agricultural products’quality safety. The total warning degree evaluation model is established with Delphi method. 18 early-warning index forecasting models of practical index system are studied using time series smooth forecasting method and curve trend extrapolation method. The warning limits of 18 single indexes and comprehensive index are determined.Using the historical data, the paper does an empirical research on processed agricultural products’quality safety in our country. With the application curve estimation and exponential smoothing prediction model of SPSS17.0 software and combining qualitative analysis, the future status of of 18 indexes are predicted in a short term. The paper evaluates.warning situation of 18 single indexes and total warning degree from 2002 to 2007 and predicts the trend of 2008 and 2009.Finally, from the nation supervision, industry construction, science and technology support, information sharing and so on four four aspects, the paper proposes policy and suggestion to enhance our country’s level of processed agricultural products’quality safety management.更多还原