【作者】 张华；

【导师】 王道龙；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 作物生态学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 我国幅员辽阔,农业资源丰富,为发展特色农业提供了巨大的市场和丰富的资源基础。2005年中央一号文件提出要发挥区域比较优势,建设农产品产业带,发展特色农业,并把发展特色经济列为国民经济发展总体框架的重要组成部分。20世纪90年代中期,我国各地把发展特色农业作为发展多种经营和“三高”农业的突破口来抓,各地特色农业得到迅速发展。但是,特色农产品生产不能与市场、农业资源开发利用有机衔接,特色农业结构不稳,经常出现这样那样的问题突出。为了改变这种局面,促进区域特色农业的持续稳定发展,有必要研究探索区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警问题,进而科学合理配置农业资源,实现农业资源、特色农业生产、市场需求的有机衔接,促进特色农业的持续发展。本文以区域特色农业持续发展为研究对象,综合运用农业可持续发展理论、比较优势理论、农业产业化理论、预警理论、灰色系统理论,对区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警问题进行了较为深入的研究,主要内容包括:通过对国内外区域特色农业发展现状进行对比,可知我国区域特色农业发展迅速,特色农业对增加农民、实现农业结构战略性调整发挥了重要作用,但是制约我国区域特色农业持续发展的深层次问题依然存在,因此,对区域特色农业系统的发展状况、所受到的和即将受到不利影响进行有针对性的诊断和预警,找出制约我国区域特色农业持续发展的症结所在非常有意义。进行了区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警系统设计,主要包括建立区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警指标体系,确定区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警标准,应用层次分析法确定区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警指标权重,运用灰色关联分析法和灰色预测法构建区域特色农业持续发展诊断预警模型。在收集大量资料,向相关专家请教的基础上,以陕西铜川特色苹果产业为例进行了陕西铜川特色苹果产业持续发展诊断预警案例研究。构建了陕西铜川特色苹果产业持续发展诊断预警指标体系,进行了诊断预警标准的分级,指标权重的计算,对铜川特色苹果产业持续发展状况进行了诊断,对2003～2012年铜川特色苹果产业持续发展状况进行了预测和预警。结果显示:2003～2012年,铜川特色苹果产业持续发展程度稳步提高。2003～2006年铜川特色苹果产业处于可持续发展程度中等的状态,警度为中警。2007～2012年,铜川特色苹果产业诊断结果为可持续发展程度强,警度为轻警。根据诊断结果将2003～2012年铜川特色苹果产业发展划分为二个阶段,并提出铜川特色苹果产业持续发展的对策与建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a country of vast territory and rich in agricultural resources, which makes it become a huge market and resource base for special economy. The first major document issued by central government in 2005 proposed to utilize the regional competitive advantage to establish Industrial Belts for agricultural products, improve special agriculture and also regard special economy as a major part of the overall framework in national economy. In the Middle period of 1990s, the whole country regarded the development of special agriculture as a breakthrough for improvement of the diversified management and the "three high" agriculture, so special agriculture has gained its rapid development. However, there are also many serious problems such as structural duplication, small scale, low holistic efficiency and structural instability. In order to change the situation and promote sustainable and stable development of regional agriculture, it is necessary to study and probe the question of diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture, and for further step to achieve goals of the scientific and rational allocation of agricultural resources, the organic combination among agricultural resource, production, market demand, as well as for promoting sustainable development of special agriculture.This paper made a careful and profound research on the diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture through theories such as agricultural sustainable development, comparative advantage, agricultural industrialization, system science, early-warning methods, and the gray system. What the main contents include is as following:Reviewed the current research situation on regional special agriculture in and abroad; Systematically expounded the academic basis of the diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of regional special agriculture; Fully analyzed the current development of regional special agriculture in and abroad; Based on them, the author designed the diagnosis & early-warning system for sustainable development of regional special agriculture, including a theoretical framework, a models of diagnosis & early-warning and an evaluation criteria. Finally, the author did an empirical research on diagnosis & early-warning for sustainable development of apple special industry in Tongchuan county Shanxi province, and also established the index system of diagnosis & early-warning, graded the evaluation standards and calculated the weight of index. The author made a diagnosis of the sustainable development situation for apple industry in Tongchuan county . According to it, sustainable development level of apple industry in Tongchuan county was diagnosed common from 2003 to 2006 and sustainable development level was better from 2007 to 2012. At last an anticipation and warning of situation was offered from 2003 to 2012 as well as many suggestions and strategies.更多还原