【作者】 刘苏社；

【导师】 唐华俊；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经济管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 政府农业投资效率一直是公共投资领域最为关注的问题之一。新中国成立以来,我国政府农业投资规模不断扩大,投资结构逐步优化,管理体制改革稳步推进,对农业稳定发展、农民持续增收、农村和谐安定发挥了重要作用。2008年下半年以来,为应对国际金融危机的严重冲击,我国政府制定了扩大国内需求、促进经济增长的“一揽子”经济刺激计划,其中一项重大措施就是大幅度增加政府公共投资特别是农业投资规模。在这种情况下,如何管好用好政府农业投资,努力提高农业投资效率,在当前显得尤为紧迫和必要。本文从理论和实践的角度,比较系统地研究我国政府农业投资效率,特别是运用计量经济学模型和统计分析,系统分析了我国政府农业投资的规模效率、产出效率和结构效率。在以下三个方面进行了创新性研究:一是为政府农业投资指标的设置和统计体系的构建提供了分析基础。本文以现有统计数据为基础,从建设发展的角度,对政府农业投资内涵进行了界定,超出了传统的农业基本建设投资范畴,也有别于财政支农资金概念,应该说比过去已经前进了一小步,虽然还远远不够,但这为适应政府收支分类改革,加快研究建立符合公共财政需要和新农村建设要求的新的政府农业投资指标设置和统计体系,奠定了良好基础,从这个角度上讲,具有承前启后的意义。二是为政府农业投资效率研究引入配套的计量经济应用方法。在政府农业投资效率研究中,除一般的弹性分析方法外,本文运用了多元统计及向量自回归方法(VAR)、脉冲响应函数和误差修正模型(VECM)等对政府农业投资效率进行实证分析,这在政府农业投资效率研究方面是一个创新和突破,一定程度上深化了研究方法,提高了研究深度。而且,本文还从数理经济学的角度,阐释了我国政府农业投资体制的演变及其内在机理,拓展了政府农业投资效率研究的新领域。三是构建了我国政府农业投资效率评价体系的基本框架。本文率先对我国政府农业投资效率评价体系进行了系统分析,并尝试构建我国政府农业投资效率评价体系的基本框架,在此基础上,进行了多层次、多目标评价体系架构的进一步完善,填补了国内政府农业投资效率评价体系理论研究的空白。特别是从实践的角度,确立了政府农业投资效率评价体系的基本内容,这对政府农业投资管理部门和项目建设单位提供了具有可操作性的评价依据。当然,评价指标体系尚处于框架构想阶段,需要在实践中进一步丰富和发展,不断充实和完善相关内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 The government’s agricultural investment efficiency has been one of issues that draw the most attention in the public investment sector. Since the founding of new China, the Chinese government has been enlarging the scale of agricultural investment gradually, optimizing the investment structure, stably promoting reform of the management system, thus playing an important role in the steady development of agriculture, continuous income growth of farmers and the harmony and stability of rural areas. Since the second half of 2008, to cope with the severe impacts of the international financial crisis, the Chinese government has formulated“a package of”economic stimulus to expand domestic demands and promote economic growth; an important part is to hike up the government’s public investment, noticeably in agriculture. Under such context, it is particularly urgent and necessary to properly manage and use the government’s agricultural investment and make efforts to improve its efficiency.In terms of the theory and practice, this paper systematically studies the agricultural investment efficiency of the Chinese government. Particularly using the econometric model and statistical analysis, this paper systematically analyzes the scale, output and structure efficiency of the Chinese government’s agricultural investment. The innovative research is reflected in the following three perspectives:Firstly, this paper provides a basis for analysis of the setup of the government’s agricultural investment indicators and the construction of a statistical system. Based on the existing statistical data, in terms of construction and development, this paper gives the government’s agricultural investment a definition, which is beyond the scope of traditional investment in agricultural fundamental construction and differs from the fund for financial expenditure in support of agriculture. We could say that this is a small step forward. Although far from adequate, it lays a good foundation for the accommodation to the government’s reform in expenditure classification, and for the acceleration of studies and setup of the government’s new agricultural investment index and statistical system in line with the public finance and the new rural construction.Secondly, the paper introduces a complete set of econometric application methods for research on the government’s agricultural investment efficiency. In addition to the commonly-used elasticity approach, this paper makes empirical analysis of the government’s agricultural investment efficiency with the multivariate statistical and VAR approach, impulse response function and VECM, which is an innovation and breakthrough in research on the government’s agricultural investment efficiency, deepens the research methods to some extent, and enhances the depth of research. Furthermore, in terms of mathematical economics, this paper explains the evolution and the intrinsic mechanism of the government’s agricultural investment efficiency and broadens the new research field of the government’s agricultural investment efficiency. Thirdly, this paper builds up the basic framework for the evaluation system of agricultural investment efficiency of the Chinese government. This paper pioneers the systematic analysis of the evaluation system of agricultural investment efficiency of the Chinese government, attempts to make up the basic framework for the evaluation system of agricultural investment efficiency of the Chinese government, on this basis improves the multi-leveled and multi-purpose evaluation system framework, thus bridges the gap in the domestic theoretical research on the evaluation system of the government’s agricultural investment efficiency. Noticeably, in terms of practice, this paper defines the basic content of the evaluation system of the government’s agricultural investment efficiency, which provides a feasible evaluation basis for the government’s agricultural investment administration authority and project undertakers. Certainly, the framework of the evaluation index system is yet being conceived. The system needs further enrichment, development and improvement through practice.更多还原