【作者】 杨伟民；

【导师】 胡定寰；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 农业经营管理， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 从乳业发展的中国历史和国际经验分析,乳业发展是居民收入水平的提高的直接结果,也是一个国家畜牧业现代化程度的重要标志之一。改革开放以来,奶牛饲养规模不断扩大,企业加工能力明显增强,居民乳品消费稳步提高,对优化农业结构、增加农民收入,提升生活质量做出了重要贡献。乳业10年来年均综合递增长率为20%以上,但是在高速增长的背后,却出现了一系列奶农增收缓慢、加工企业利润不断摊薄,甚至像2008年“三聚氰胺”这样质量事件。在这样的背景下,从产业链研究乳业的结构、行为和绩效,进而研究乳业发展规律、增长桎梏、未来前景以及政策投放就成为一个新的研究视角。作为一体化程度要求高的产业,乳业发展涉及到原奶生产、收集运输、加工包装、流通销售各环节,奶业产业结构的竞争也不只是单个企业的竞争,而是整个产业链的竞争。本文把奶业纳入产业链的分析框架,运用产业组织的SCP分析范式、博弈论分析方法、价值链分析方法、案例分析和计量经济分析方法对乳业纵向产业链的五个主要环节及其协作链接方式进行了系统的理论探讨和实证分析。较为全面地分析了中国乳业产业链的历史、现状和发展趋势。本研究的逻辑顺序是:前言对文献进行综述,阐述文章的科学意义,然后用四章内容对乳业产业链的原奶生产、收集运输、包装加工、销售与消费主要环节的结构、行为、绩效进行实证分析;在每一章内容中利用产业组织理论和交易成本经济学讨论了产业链各环节的现状、历史演进、产业结构、主体行为以及由此产生的经济绩效和质量绩效,都隐含地给出了政策建议。第六章综述性地归纳产业出现问题的深层次原因,并利用产业组织理论提出了实现产业健康持续快速发展的政策措施和对策建议。本文的基本研究结论是:我国奶业产业链的各个环节的发展水平、结构特征决定了我国奶业产业链纵向协作的现状;沿着产业历史的路径依赖导致的产业之间的组织力量不对称,导致了利益链接机制的不均衡,这就成为整个产业经济和质量绩效都较低的原因。如果解决现有问题,单纯的加强政策监管或者扶持加工企业并不能实现目的,必须改变现有的产业链格局,扶持谈判能力较低的原奶生产者成立合作社,均衡相关的利益分配机制,才能促使乳业的健康持续发展。本文试图在以下几个方面进行创新性的探索:(1)把乳业的经济研究纳入产业链的分析框架,通过对乳业产业链五个主要环节严格按照产业组织理论进行了结构、行为、绩效分析。探求产业链纵向协作的基本特征及其内在决定因素。(2)第一次将奶站纳入产业链分析,作为原奶的收集和运输阶段进行深入研究,揭示备受关注的这个产业链主体选择行为的动因和趋势。(3)结合国际经验和中国实践,提出了乳业可持续发展的关键在于原奶生产环节的组织化程度的提高。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the dairying development history of China and the international experience, it is indicated that the dairying development is the direct result of the improvement of residents’income level and an important criterion for demonstrating the modernization of one nation’s animal husbandry. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policies, the scale of cow-raising in China has continued to expand, the processing ability of enterprises has went up remarkably, the level of dairy consumption has risen steadily, which make important contributions to optimizes the agricultural structure, to increase the farmers’ income, and to promote the quality of life. In past 10 year, the average annual growth rate of the dairying of China has been above 20%, but against the fast growth, actually presented a series of problems such as the slow-down of income increase on the part of cow-raisers, the decrease of the profits of the processing sector of the dairying industry, and even the melamine quality incident in 2008. Under the context, it is considered to be a new research angle that we make a study of the dairying’s structure, its behavior and its performance, its law of development, its obstacles, its prospect and the policy-making from the point of view of the industrial chain.As the dairying industry is highly integrated, its development involves such links as the original milk production, the collection and transportation, the processing and packing, the circulation and marketing. So the competition of the dairy industry is not that of the single enterprise but that of the entire industrial chain. This article examines the dairy industry in the light of the analysis frame of the industrial chain with industrial organization’s SCP analysis model, the game theory analysis method, the value chain analysis method, the case analysis and the econometric analysis method and has carried on a systematically theoretical discussion of and the empirical analyses of five key links of the longitudinal dairying industry chain and their cooperation mechanisms. It has analyzed the history of the dairying industry chain of China, the present situation and the trend of development comprehensively.The research’s structure is: the preface includes the summary of the literature and elaborates the scientific significance the article, and then the first four chapters carries on the empirical analyses of the structure, the behavior, the performance of key links of the dairying industry chain, namely, the original milk production, the collection and transportation, the packing and processing, the logistics and the consumption. With the industrial organization theory and the transaction cost economics, it has discussed the present situation, the historical evolution, the industrial structure, and the main body behavior of the various links of the industrial chain as well as the economic achievements and the quality achievements produced from these links. Each chapter has offered the suggestion on policy-making. The sixth chapter has summarized the fundamental reason for the problems the industry has, and , on basis of industrial organization theory, proposed operational policies and measures which can ensure the healthy and fast development of the industryThe fundamental conclusion of this article is: the level of development of each link of our country dairy industry chain and the structural feature have decided the present situation of longitudinal cooperation of our country dairy industry chain; the uncoordinated industrial organization strength depending on the industrial history’s mode causes the imbalanced mechanism of benefit links, which resulted in the low quality achievements and the underdevelopment of the entire industrial economy. If we want to solve the existing problems, only strengthening the policy supervision or supporting processing industry can not realize the goal, and we must change the existing industrial chain pattern, support original milk producers with the low negotiation ability to establish the cooperative society, and balance the related interests distribution mechanism to materialize the health sustainable development of the dairying industry.The followings are the innovative explorations in this paper: It(1)integrates the economic study of the dairying industry with the industrial chain’s analysis frame and from the perspective of the structure, the behavior and the performance, strictly according to the industrial organization theory, make analyses of five key links of the dairying industry chain. Searches essential features and intrinsic determining factors of the industry chain longitudinal cooperation r. (2) For the first time, integrates the milk station with the industrial chain analysis, and conducts the deep research of the collection and the haulage of the original milk, and reveal the motivation for its behavior and the tendency of its behavior of the basic unit of this industrial chain. (3) Combining international experience and the practice of China, suggests that sustainable development of the dairying lie in the enhancement of organization degree in the original milk production link.更多还原