【作者】 黄庚保；

【导师】 张根保；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 机械工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 区域质量形势评价与预测技术是一套面向区域整体质量水平评价与预测的理论和方法体系。其核心观点是从整体上而不是从某一具体产品或企业的角度研究区域的质量形势。区域质量形势评价理论认为,传统的数量增长型并不能完全反映区域经济的持续发展能力,同时还要对“数量增长”和“质量效益”两个方面进行综合度量。区域质量形势评价理论提出“区域质量”和“区域质量形势”的概念,认为一个区域或行业不论大小都有其整体质量水平,且与区域经济的发展密切相关。很显然,在高品质区域,人们的生活可以远离假冒伪劣产品的危害,区域的生活质量和经济发展水平必然就高。本课题提出了区域质量的三要素立体模型和指针表模型,用于评价及预测区域质量形势。本文主要内容分为以下几个部分。第一部分,面对不断发生的区域性或行业性的系列重大质量事件,阐述了质量形势区域化和质量观念区域化的背景。以整体评价的观点分析了传统质量评价技术,分别分析了面向产品、企业、社会效果评价的局限性,指出在宏观上和总量上建立区域质量指标的必要性,并指明了评价当前状态和预测发展趋势的重要意义,并提出区域质量形势评价理论研究的课题。第二部分,构建了区域质量形势研究的基本理论框架。定义了“区域质量”、“区域质量形势”、“区域质量三要素”等概念,指出了区域质量水平是由区域内所有产品的产品特性、企业的流程能力和社会效果三个要素的共同表现,并成为区域质量形势评价及预测技术的基础。建立了区域质量三要素立体模型和指针表模型,围绕如何评价及预测区域质量形势,研究了区域质量形势分析、评价及预测的基本理论方法,如对数透视变换技术、复合线性矩阵方法、马尔科夫过程分析方法、支持向量机方法等,形成了区域质量形势评价的基本理论。第三部分,重点研究了区域质量形势理论的指标体系。建立了区域质量形势指标体系框架,将指标体系分为评价指标、要素指标、属性指标三个层次。其中评价指标定义为A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H八等级制指标;要素指标定义为流程能力、产品特性及社会效果三种要素;属性指标定义为包含39个属性在内的6属性表。在此基础上将区域质量形势的6属性表进行了量化。第四部分,重点研究了区域质量形势评价技术。首先对区域质量形势评价的步骤和组织进行了界定。然后用复合线性矩阵方法对区域质量水平的三种要素进行详细计算,得到区域质量水平的三个指数。此后在子区域合并为总区域的基础上,对各个子区域的质量水平采用随机抽样的方法,得到总区域(或某行业)的区域质量水平的均值、中位数、众数等特征值,最后用指针表模型对总区域的质量形势进行了分析和评价。第五部分,重点研究了区域质量形势预测技术。主要分为状态预测和属性预测两个类型。状态预测技术是基于马尔科夫过程分析技术的整体预测,详细研究了预测过程的预测假设、预测模型,基本步骤、初始状态、转移矩阵、平衡态分析、预测指针表分析等。属性预测技术首先用主成分分析法筛选了区域质量的主要属性,然后用属性与结果的“数据对”训练支持向量机,形成区域质量属性预测模型并予以预测,达到属性预测的目的。第六部分,研究了区域质量形势的原型系统,主要利用MATLAB/SIMLINK系统仿真软件对区域质量水平评价和形势预测的部分主要模块进行了模拟运行,其中包括流程能力指数计算模块、产品特性指数计算模块、社会效果指数计算模块、状态预测模块、属性预测模块等,该原型系统为下一步的推广应用打下了基础。第七部分,对全文进行总结,概括了本研究的创新技术和方法,并展望了今后的研究工作。更多还原

【Abstract】 Evaluation of Regional Quality Situation (ERQS) and prediction technology is a set of standards for regional evaluation of the overall quality prediction theory and methodology system. The essence of the methodology is to evaluate regional quality situation from the overall opinion rather than by a particular product or particular business point of view. The theory of ERQS is that the growth in quantity can not fully reflect the region’s sustainable capacity of economic development. Evaluation of quality from both“growth in quantity”and“quality and efficiency”is necessary.The concepts of "regional quality" and " regional quality situation”are proposed. Regardless of the size and industry, any region has overall quality level, which is related closely to the regional economic development. Obviously, at high quality region, people’s lives can be far away from the harm from fake and shoddy products, and region’s quality of life and level of economic development is certainly high. In this study, three dimensional models and pointer table model for quality evaluation and prediction of regional situation is proposed to evaluate and predict regional quality situation. The main content is divided into the following sections.The first chapter, in the face of the ongoing series of regional and industry quality major case, the background and reasons that shape the regional-quality and regional-quality-philosophy are presented. The traditional quality evaluation technology is analyzed from the overall-evaluation philosophy. The limitation of product oriented, enterprise oriented and society oriented evaluation is discussed. The necessity to establish the macro and overall regional quality is presented. The significance of evaluation of the current status and forecast of the development trend of the quality is presented. The ERQS is put forward as the content of this study.Chapter II builds a basic theoretical framework for ERQS. The definition of a“regional quality", " regional quality situation”and "3- elements of regional quality" is presented, pointing out that the regional quality level is determined by all three elements in the region, namely products and product characteristics, the flow capacity of enterprises and social effects of the of the common performance, which is the basic of ERQS and quality prediction.The three dimensional model and pointer table model for quality evaluation and prediction of regional situation is established. Focused on how to evaluate and predict regional quality situation. The basic theory on analysis, evaluation and prediction of regional quality is proposed, such as prospective logrithm-transfomation technology, complex linear matrix method, Markov process analysis methods, support vector machine method, etc., forming the basic theory of ERQS.Chapter III focuses on the index system of ERQS. The framework of index system is setup, which is divided into three levels, namely, evaluation index system, elements of indexes, property indexes. Evaluation index is defined as A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H eight-graded multiple-grade indexes. Element index is defined as indexes of flow capacity, product characteristics and the social effects. Property indicator defined by the 6 tables that includes 39 properties, and then the 6 property tables of regional quality situation is quantified.The fourth chapter focuses on the evolution technologies of regional quality situation. Firstly, the steps and organization for ERQS is defined. Then the three elements of regional quality is calculated using complex linear matrix method to obtain the three indexes of regional quality level. Then the regions are combined to form the total region. Random sampling of the sub-regional quality is conducted to represent the quality level of a total region (industry) by mean, median, mode and other features of the samples. Finally pointer table model is used for analysis and evaluation of quality situation of total region.The fifth chapter focuses on prediction techniques of the regional situation, which is divided into status and property prediction. Status prediction technique based on Markov process analysis techniques, a detailed study of prediction hypothesis, prediction model, the basic steps, the initial status, transfer matrix, equilibrium analysis, prediction table pointer analysis are studied. Property prediction technique used principal component analysis first to select the key properties for regional quality, and then support vector machine method is used to establish the prediction model of regional quality property.Chapter VI on the quality of the regional situation, the prototype system, the main use of MATLAB / SIMLINK system simulation software, the quality of the regional situation and the forecast evaluation and some of the main modules of the simulation run, including the process capability index calculation module, the product features index module, the social effects of index module, the state of the forecast module, module attributes, such as forecast, the prototype system for the next phase of popularization and application of a foundation. Chapter VI summarizes the paper, outlining the innovative technologies and methods in this research, and suggestions for future research work is proposed.更多还原