【作者】 孙维丰；

【导师】 陈立文；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 天津市我国四大直辖市之一,近年经济发展迅猛,支柱产业的房地产业在天津市经济发展中发挥着越来越重要的作用。天津市滨海新区发展战略,给天津市房地产业发展注入了新的生机。房地产业持续、快速、健康发展对天津市实现战略跨越式发展起到至关重要的作用。本论文从研究房地产业持续发展和可持续发展两条主线出发,对天津市房地产业发展系统研究,分析天津市房地产业发展的基本规律,关注发展过程中存在的问题和隐患,为天津市房地产业发展提供有效的理论分析与政策选择,进而提高房地产业运行效率。本论文首先从天津市房地产业发展外部环境和房地产业发展相关要素两方面进行了分析。对与房地产业发展密切相关的天津市地理位置,城市总体发展定位以及天津市产业布局等市场外部环境进行分析;同时也对天津市城市化发展,产业结构,房地产开发投资及销售情况,包括房地产业的发展前景进行了分析和研究。1990-2006年天津市住宅投资占房地产开发投资的比重平均达67.33%,2005-2007年天津市商品住宅交易总额均占商品房交易总额的80%以上,住宅产业作为天津市房地产业的主导地位不可动摇。住宅产业与国民生计息息相关,近年天津市住宅产业是否存在过热的情况值得研究。本论文对天津市住宅产业重要的交易类指标进行分析,通过热度分析图法比较分析天津市各区域住宅产业发展状况,系统研究了近年天津市住宅产业发展热度情况。与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样,房地产业在发展过程中也客观存在着周期波动现象。正视天津市房地产业的周期波动现象,对于处在发展阶段的天津市房地产业具有重要的现实指导意义。本论文研究了天津市房地产业周期波动影响因素,定性和定量分析方法相结合,利用SPSS软件,详细分析影响天津市房地产周期的经济因素、政策因素、城市化进程因素、心理因素。运用单指标和多指标方法,对天津市房地产周期进行分析,得出天津市房地产的周期波动规律,并对天津市和全国房地产周期波动进行了对比分析。住房保障制度的实质是政府利用国家和社会的力量,通过行政手段为中低收入家庭提供适当住房,解决住房问题。在不同国家(地区)、同一国家(地区)的不同时期,住房保障制度的内容也各不相同。本论文在研究发达国家住房保障政策基础上,根据天津市本土实际,分析天津市住房保障模式内容与特点,提出了应加大住房合作模式的住房保障模式的建议。房地产业一直被认为是高风险、高回报的行业。宏观角度,本论文建立了属性数学模型研究天津市房地产市场风险状况,具有重要的经济和社会意义。微观角度,本论文系统地提出了房地产项目风险投资的物元分析模型,结合效用理论,将风险评价中存在的主观风险判断与客观存在风险综合考虑,一定程度上提高了风险决策的可靠性,为房地产投资风险决策提供有效的理论依据。房地产业可持续发展问题的研究是建设集约型社会的一个热点研究问题,本论文从分析国内外房地产业可持续发展研究现状入手,定义房地产业可持续发展的内涵,从人口方面和土地方面分析天津市房地产业可持续发展现状,论述房地产业可持续发展方法论研究,提出建立在信息化贯穿始终的全团队、全过程、全要素的房地产可持续管理方法论集成模型。重点介绍全团队房地产可持续管理技术方法和房地产可持续发展管理信息系统建设,提出房地产可持续发展管理信息系统构架体系,并对房地产可持续造价管理信息系统进行研究。为天津市房地产业可持续发展系统有序进行,提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tianjin, as one of China’s four municipalities directly under the central, economic develop rapid in recent years. As a pillar industry of Tianjin’s economic development, the real estate industry is playing an increasingly important role. Tianjin Binhai New Area development strategy has injected new vitality for the development of the real estate industry in Tianjin. Real Estate sustained, rapid and healthy development play a crucial role for Tianjin strategic development by leaps and bounds. In this paper, studie along whit two lines. One is continued development of Tianjin real estate; Another is sustainable development of Tianjin real estate.Analysis the basic law of the Tianjin real estate industry’s development. Concern the existing problems and potential for Tianjin Real Estate Development. Provide an effective theoretical analysis and policy options for Tianjin real estate industry to improve its operating efficiency. In this paper, first of all analysis from the external environment and real estate development related to the key elements for the development of Tianjin real estate. Analysis closely related to the development of the Tianjin real estate industry the external environment including the geographical location, as well as positioning in the overall development of Tianjin industrial distribution and so on; At the same time, analysis and research also on the development of Tianjin city, the industrial structure, investment in real estate development and sales, is including real estate prospects for the development. Fromm 1990 to 2006, Tianjin investment in residential real estate investment accounted for an average of 67.33%. From 2005 to 2007, Tianjin total merchandise trade amounted to residential real estate transactions of more than 80% of the total. Position of the residential real estate industry as a pillar in Tianjin, and housing Industry closely related to livelihood. In recent years, the existence of overheated Tianjin housing industry is worth studying. In this paper, analysis important transaction indexes of the housing industry in Tianjin. Use the heat analysis map method to comparative analysis of the district of Tianjin housing industrial development. System study on Tianjin recent years housing industry’s heat condition. Same as the macroeconomic fluctuations in the course of the cycle, the real estate industry in the development process is also objective existence of the phenomenon of fluctuations in the cycle. Correct understanding of the Tianjin real estate cycle fluctuations has important practical significance for the developing stage of the real estate industry in Tianjin. This paper studies the impact of fluctuations in Tianjin real estate cycle. Qualitative and quantitative analysis methods combined, with the use of SPSS software, detailed analysis of the impact of Tianjin real estate cycle, economic factors, policies, the process of urbanization, the psychological factor and so on. Use of single-and multi-indicator approach analysis Tianjin real estate cycle and compared and analyzed Tianjin and National real estate cycle fluctuations. Come to the law of Tianjin real estate cycle fluctuations. Housing security system is the essence of the Government to use the power of the state and society, through administrative means in order to provide adequate housing for low-income families solve housing problems. In different countries (regions), the same countries (regions) of the different periods of time, the housing security system is also different. In this paper, the study developed on the basis of housing security policies, according to Tianjin local real, analysis housing security model contents and characteristics of Tianjin, and proposed housing security should increase co-operation model to perfect Tianjin housing security system. The real estate industry has always been considered high-risk, high return business. In a macro sense, the paper established an attributes mathematical model study the real estate market risk in Tianjin, has an important economic and social significance. Microscopic point of view, the paper systematically put forward the real estate risk investment matter-element model, combined with utility theory, comprehensive consider the subjective risk and objective judge, to a certain extent, increased the risk of the reliability of the decision-making. For real estate investment risk provide an effective decision-making theory.Real estate research on sustainable development is a hot social issue for the construction of intensive community. In this paper, research from the analysis of the real estate industry of sustainable development at home and abroad, definite the content of sustainable development in the real estate, from the population issue and land area issue of analysis the sustainable development of Tianjin real estate, methodology research on real estate industry on sustainable development. Made in the establishment of information technology throughout the entire team, the entire process, all elements of real estate integrated model of sustainable management methodology. Study focuse on: the entire team sustainable management technique methods and real estate sustainable development MIS. Put forward the sustainable development of real estate MIS framework system and study on sustainable cost of real estate MIS. For Tianjin real estate sustainable development system in an orderly manner provides a theoretical basis.更多还原