长三角地区劳动力流转与城乡居民收入差距关系实证研究

【作者】 黄国华；

【导师】 沈开艳；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 长江三角洲地区开发历史悠久,地理位置优越,是我国经济增长最快、发展最好、最具有市场活力和综合实力的区域。全球化经济背景下,长三角地区正逐渐吸引着众多的外商、港台投资商前来投资,日益成为承接国际产业转移的前沿阵地,对社会整体经济的发展具有重要的战略意义。经济发展和经济实力的增强为破除城乡二元结构、推动城乡一体化进程提供了可靠保障,推动城乡一体化的发展,不仅是科学发展观和构建社会主义和谐社会的内在要求,而且是统筹协调发展战略的切实体现。近年来,长三角区域的平均城市化率居全国之首,城市与农村的隔阂逐渐消弱;城乡居民收入差距呈现缩小趋势;劳动力的流动和转移的总体规模一直保持着良好的势头。在开放经济和统筹协调发展战略条件下,推动劳动力合理流转和缩小城乡居民收入差距都具有十分重要的现实意义。推动劳动力流转,缩小城乡居民收入差距,两个核心理论是居民收入差距的理论模式和劳动力流转的理论模式。评价和研究城乡居民收入差距理论和劳动力流转理论,有助于做出实证分析以及形成缩小城乡居民收入差距和促进劳动力合理流转的调控政策。目前,国内外在这方面的研究很多,从不同角度研究了收入差距问题,形成了库兹涅茨倒U理论、增长和分配替代理论、洛伦茨曲线理论、基尼系数理论、收入份额理论和泰尔指数理论。库兹涅茨倒U理论、增长和分配替代理论描述了收入差距随经济发展产生的变动趋势,洛伦茨曲线理论、基尼系数理论、收入份额理论和泰尔指数理论不涉及经济发展水平和收入分配差距程度之间的关系,只是单纯地从质上或量上来研究收入分配差距的度。本文认为泰尔指数最适宜衡量长三角16地级市内部的城乡居民收入差距,长三角域内外的城乡居民收入差距本文采用城乡平均收入差率来表示。研究劳动力流转的理论有:刘易斯二元经济模式、拉尼斯–费模式、乔根森模式、哈里斯–托达罗模型,这些模式对劳动力流转的动力机制的解释都存有缺陷。本文在陈述和分析城乡居民收入差距已有理论的基础上,突破传统思维框架,构建出城乡居民收入差距不仅受外部劳动力流动、本地城市化水平影响,而且受城乡非均衡增长因素、政府扶持政策因素影响的新型理论模型。在城乡非均衡增长因素和政府扶持因素不变的前提下,城乡居民收入差距随着外来劳动力的迁入而逐渐缩小;在城市化水平较低的时期,城乡居民收入差距随着城市化水平的提高而增加,当城市化水平达到一定程度,城乡居民收入差距将随着城市化水平的提升而减少;在农村居民人均收入小于城镇居民人均收入的界限内,城乡居民收入差异随着城乡非均衡增长因素的加大而增加,随着城乡非均衡因素的消减而缩小;在农村居民人均收入小于城镇居民人均收入的界限内,城乡居民收入差距随着政府对农村扶持力度的增强而减弱。并通过实证分析,验证了上述理论,明确了长三角地区劳动力流动、城市化水平、城乡非均衡增长和政府的扶农政策对城乡居民收入差距影响的具体程度,并找出长三角16地级市城乡居民收入差距随城市化水平变动的拐点。同时,本文在陈述和分析传统劳动力转移理论的基础上,运用非农就业的成本效用分析法,构建出一种农村劳动力向非农产业转移的新型理论模型,农村劳动力向城市的转移不仅受边际收益﹙城乡收入差数﹚的影响,而且受边际成本(成本变动)的影响;此理论用于外部劳动力流入时,同样适用,外部劳动力向长三角区域的迁移不仅受迁入地高收入的边际收益﹙高低收入差数﹚的影响,而且受迁移产生的边际成本的影响,转移成本的增加阻碍了农村剩余劳动力的转移和外部劳动力的流入。并通过实证分析,证实了上述理论,进一步清晰了劳动力流转的影响因素。总的说来,本文研究结果表明,1995–2006年间长三角地区城市化水平正在加速发展,城乡居民收入差距显露缩小迹象,在多种因素的作用下,劳动力流转的总量仍保持较大规模,增速有所减缓。政府的宏观管理政策应在缩小城乡居民收入差距与推动劳动力合理流动和转移方面,进一步地有所作为。缩小城乡居民收入差距和推动劳动力合理流转相互联系,应整体考虑。本文认为鉴于外部劳动力流动、本地城市化水平、城乡非均衡增长、政府的扶农政策都对本地城乡居民收入差距有所影响,应着眼于这几方面的考虑来逐步缩小城乡居民收入差距;基于本文研究的重点是城乡居民收入差距与劳动力流转之间的关系,论文主要从促使劳动力合理流转影响因素阐述缩小城乡居民收入差距的对策。同时鉴于劳动力流转(包括外部劳动力的流动和本地农村劳动力的转移)受到迁入地高收入的边际效用和迁入地高收入成本率的影响,因此应从提高迁入地收入的边际效用和缩小迁入过程的成本耗费两方面综合考虑,提出促进劳动力合理流转的对策建议。具体而言,论文由七章组成。第一章为绪论,论述论文研究的问题、文献综述、相关概念、主要研究内容、研究方法、创新点、不足之处及总的结论。第二章为理论分析部分,分别阐述和评价了传统的城乡居民收入差距理论以及劳动力流动和转移理论。第三章为理论构建部分,综合考虑多种因素,构建出城乡居民收入差距影响因素的理论模型和劳动力流转影响因素的理论模型。第四章和第五章为论文的实证部分:第四章运用EVIEWS统计软件和动态面板数据分析了外部劳动力流动、本地城市化水平、城乡非均衡增长、政府的扶农政策对域内城乡居民收入差距的影响方向及影响程度,验证了创建的理论模型,并求出长三角16地级市的城乡居民收入差距随城市化水平变动的拐点;第五章运用EVIEWS统计软件分析了域内外收入差距、就业容量因素以及流动成本的变动对外部劳动力流入的影响,分析了内部城乡居民收入差距、就业机遇因素以及转移成本的变动对农村劳动力向城镇转移的影响,分析了单纯的域内外收益变动因素对外部劳动力流动的影响,分析了单纯的城乡收益变动因素对本地农村劳动力向城镇转移的影响,证实了理论模型,并且基于利润最大化理论和影响因素分析法,对于单纯的收益变动因素对劳动力流转没有解释力的根源进行了深入剖析。第六章分析了城乡居民收入差距和劳动力流转的内在联系,把论文的两大主旨紧密联结起来。第七章为结论和政策建议部分,对长三角地区缩小城乡居民收入差距和推动劳动力合理流转,提出若干政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Yangtze River Delta region has a long history and superior strategic location, It has the fastest economic growth, the best development, the most dynamic markets and the most strong overall strength of the region.Under the condition of globalization, the Yangtze River Delta region is gradually attracting more and more foreign, Hong Kong and Taiwan investors to invest, It has become the forward positions to undertake international industrial transfer, the region is of important strategic significance On the economic development of society as a whole.The enhance of the economic strength is of great help to get rid of the dual urban-rural structure, Provides urban and rural areas a reliable safeguard to promote the integration process and promote the integration development of urban and rural areas, which is not only the inherent requirements of scientific development and building a harmonious socialist society, but also is the reflect of the strategies of co-ordination Development. In recent years, in the Yangtze River Delta region, the average urbanization rate Continue to rise, the differences between the urban and rural areas gradually weaken, the income gap between the urban and rural residents show narrowing trend and labour mobility have always maintaining good momentum.In an open economic environment and coordinated development strategic conditions, promoting labour mobility and narrowing the income gap between the urban and rural residents is of great practical significance.Promote labor mobility, and narrow the income gap between the urban and rural residents, the two core theories is the income gap theoretical models and the labour movement theoretical models. Evaluation and Research of the income gap between the urban and rural residents theory and the labor flow theory are contribute to the formation of the regulation and control policy of narrowing the income gap between the urban and rural areas residents and promoting the flow of labor. At present, there are lots of related studies from different angles on the income gap issue At home and abroad, there have formed the Kuznets inverted U theory, the alternative theories of growth and distribution, the Lorenz curve theory, the Gini coefficient theory,the share of income theory and the Theil index theory. The Kuznets inverted U theory, and the theory of alternative of growth and distribution describe the changes of the income gap with the economic development trends, the Lorenz curve theory, the Gini coefficient theory, the revenue share theory and the Theil index theory do not involve the relationship of economic development and income distribution, they simply research the issue of the income distribution gap from the quality or quantity angle.This article think that Theil index is the most appropriate index to measure the income gap between the urban and rural residents in the Yangtze River Delta.The theories on labor migration are: Lewis adual economy model, Celanese - fee model,orgenson model, Harris - Todaro model, there are many shortcomings about the dynamic mechanism of the labour movement in these models.Based on the statement and analysis of the traditional theories about the income gap between the urban and rural residents,the thesis breaktrough the traditional framework of thinking, and build the new theory that the income gap between the urban and rural residents is not only impacted by labor mobility and urbannization level, but also impacted by non-balanced growth in the urban and rural areas, government support policy factors.Under the conditions that the non-balanced growth in the urban and rural areas factor and the government support factor remain unchanged, the income gap between the urban and rural areas residents gradually reduce with foreign labour intaking;when the urbanization level is lower, the income gap between the urban and rural areas residents raise with the level of urbanization,when the level of urbanization be to achieve a certain level, the income gap between the urban and rural areas residents will decrease;with the limit that per capita income of the rural residents is less than per capita income of the urban residents, the income gap between the urban and rural residents increase with the non-balanced growth factors increase,reduce with the non-balanced growth factors decrease; with the limit that per capita income of the rural residents is less than per capita income of the urban residents, the income gap between the urban and rural residents decrease with the government’s rural support policy is strengthening.Morever the thesis verify above theories through empirical analysis,define the specific level that the labor flow, the level of urbanization, urban and rural non-balanced growth and the Government’s Support rural policy impact the income gap between the urban and rural residents.At the same time, Based on the statement and analysis of the traditional theories about labor movement, breaktrough the traditional framework of thinking, the thesis build the new theory that the flow of rural labor to city is not only impacted by high-income marginal gains (High and low income differential),but also impacted by high-income marginal cost. The external labour migration to the Yangtze River Delta region is not only impacted by the high-income marginal gains (High and low income differential),but also impacted by the high-income marginal costs, the increase of transfer cost impede the transfer of rural surplus labor and impede the transfer of the labor force outside. Morever through empirical analysis, the thesis verify the above theories,further clear the factors that impacting the labour mobility.Overall, this thesis shows that the level of urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta region is being heightened, the income gap between the urban and rural residents show signs of narrowing, labour mobility has not weakened with the income gap narrowing. The government’s macro-management policy should be further accomplish something to narrow the income gap between the urban and rural residents and promote the rational flow of the rural and outside labor.Narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents and promoting the rational flow of labor are interrelated and should be considered as a whole. In this paper, in the light of the theory that labour mobility, the level of urbanization, urban and rural non-balanced growth, the Government’s support rural policy have an impact on the income gap between the urban and rural residents, so we should focus on these factors to gradually narrow the income gap between the urban and rural residents. At the same time, in view of labour mobility is impacted by high-income marginal gains and high-income marginal costs,we should improve high-income marginal gains and reduce high-income marginal costs,thus we can promote the labor intake.In particular, the paper is composed by seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, including the researching issue, the literature summary,the related concepts,the research methodology and the innovation spots.The second chapter and the third chapter belong to theoretical analysis, on the basis of evaluating the traditional theories,constructing the new theories of the income gap between the urban and rural residents impacting factors and the labour mobility impacting factors.The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter are the analysis with related models, The fourth chapter use statistical analysis software to confirm the impact factors on the income gap between the urban and rural residents,confirm the impact direction and the impact degree,The fifth chapter confirms the factors that impacting labor mobility, confirms the impact direction and the impact degree.The sixth chapter explain the inherent relationship between the income gap between the urban and rural residents and the labour mobility.The seventh chapter includes the conclusions and the policy recommendations of the Yangtze River Delta region to narrow the income gap between the urban and rural residents and promote the rational flow of labor.更多还原