中美制成品产业内贸易与利益分配

【作者】 章丽群；

【导师】 谢康； 金芳；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 20世纪70年代以来,产业内贸易已在世界贸易中占据了相当重要的地位,成为推动新型国际分工形成、促进新兴产业与主导产业发展的重要力量。产业内贸易是发达工业国家对外贸易发展的一个关键决定因素,对发展中国家对外贸易的发展也产生了深远的影响。就中国而言,近年来,伴随着全球贸易自由化的发展以及中国经济的持续高速增长和产业结构的优化升级,中国对外贸易的商品结构发生了很大变化,机电产品取代传统的纺织服装产品,成为最大宗的出口产品。同时,人均收入水平的提高、消费需求多样化趋势的增强以及外商直接投资规模的持续扩大有力地促进了中国制成品进出口产业内贸易的发展,产业内贸易在中国对外贸易中所占的比重不断提高,尤其是在电动机、集成电路、变压器、电子印刷线路、电子线路开关等机电产品方面表现地尤为突出。在改革开放30年的特殊历史时点上,中国所面临的内部和外部经济条件发生了深刻变化。特别是在经济全球化条件下,面对人民币的升值、原材料价格的迅猛上涨、劳动力成本的提高和中美的巨额贸易顺差,中美贸易尤其是中美制成品产业内贸易及贸易利益值得我们深入研究。论文选择中美制成品产业内贸易为研究的切入口,是因为:其一,中国是世界上最具潜力的发展中国家,美国是世界前列的发达国家,两者间的贸易具有很强的互补性。其二,随着经济全球化的推进,制成品贸易已经成为当今中国出口贸易的主体。在中美产业内贸易中,与初级产品相比,制成品产业内贸易占有相当大的比重。特别是在发达国家主导下的全球价值链垂直分工体系中,遵循制成品各生产阶段或各生产工序的可分割性和各国的比较优势实现全球资源的优化配置,使发展中国家的中国的“制造功能”更为明显。其三,制成品产业内贸易利益有其独特之处,显著区别于传统贸易利益的基本涵义,正是这种区别促使我们要结合中国的具体特点深刻地思考应如何参与全球化条件下的国际贸易并注重提升中国的贸易利益。基于以上的思考,本文在结合中国面临的内部、外部经济条件的基础上,运用国际经济学、产业经济学、管理学相关理论,采用理论分析与实证分析方法,对中美制成品产业内贸易的发展机理、发展现状与中美制成品产业内贸易利益及其分配进行了较为深入系统的研究。论文主要包括四大部分内容:一,中美制成品产业内贸易的发展现状与理论解释;二,中美制成品产业内贸易的发展基础;三,中美制成品产业内贸易的利益构成及其分配;四,中国制成品贸易利益的提升对策。论文的具体内容分八章加以展开:前言。本章在概括论文研究背景和研究意义的基础上,结合国内外对产业内贸易,特别是基于FDI的产业内贸易的研究现状,提出了论文的基本研究思路和采用的基本研究方法、论文的主要内容和结构框架,并归纳总结了论文的主要创新点。第一章,产业内贸易的传统理论及其拓展。本章阐述了产业内贸易的理论模型和计量方法。首先,通过整理国际贸易理论的发展脉络,寻求产业内贸易的理论渊源;其次,阐述产业内贸易传统理论的两种基本形式,水平型产业内贸易与垂直型产业内贸易的理论模型,指出两者都以最终产品为贸易对象,实现了发达国家之间或发达国家与发展中国家之间的同一产业内产品的同时进口和出口;第三,结合全球化的特点和跨国公司在国际要素分工中的基础作用,指出发达国家与发展中国家之间的垂直型产业内贸易理论已经得到拓展,表明垂直型产业内贸易涵义已发展成为以跨国公司为载体的同一产业内不同生产工序或不同生产环节的零部件、中间产品或加工产品的进口和出口;最后,归纳了产业内贸易的计量方法,指出本文的产业内贸易基本计量方法是G-L指数(格鲁贝尔-洛伊德计量法),并在此基础上进一步说明与垂直型产业内贸易的拓展相关的计量方法包括:GHM计量法和Hummels投入-产出分析法。第二章,中美制成品产业内贸易的发展。本章从中美制成品贸易的结构特征入手,通过分析中国产业内贸易的总体状况和中美制成品产业内贸易的总体发展水平,比较分析中美劳动密集型、资本或技术密集型制成品产业内贸易的发展,认为其中产业内贸易指数和垂直化程度较高的是资本或技术密集型制成品中的机械与运输设备。指出中美制成品产业内贸易的这种发展特点表明中美制成品产业内贸易就是同一产业内不同生产工序或不同生产环节的零部件、中间产品或加工产品的进口和出口,即全球化条件下垂直型产业内贸易的拓展形式。第三章,中美制成品产业内贸易的发展基础。本章指出中美制成品产业内贸易的发展基础是中美要素禀赋的差异、美国对中国的直接投资和中美加工贸易的发展。文中特别运用了FDI对产业内贸易影响的理论模型,结合美国对中国垂直投资的经济数据,建立美国FDI对中美产业内贸易影响的实证模型,指出基于FDI的中国加工贸易的发展与中美制成品产业内贸易的发展存在很强的互补性。最后,以上海加工贸易发展为例,对中美制成品产业内贸易的发展基础进行深入阐述。第四章,中美制成品产业内贸易利益构成与分配。本章区分了产业内贸易利益与传统贸易利益,结合中国与美国参与制成品全球价值链的基本状况,说明全球化条件下产业内贸易利益包括比较优势效应、规模经济效应和源于资源稀缺性的经济租,指出中美贸易利益的分配取决于中美两国在全球价值链环节上的附加值。本章认为,在跨国公司主导的全球价值链分工中,中国在贸易利益分配中处于相对不利地位,中美贸易利益分配存在非对称性。最后,以笔记本电脑为例,分析了全球价值链垂直分工中中国的贸易利益。第五章,中美制成品产业内贸易利益分配的影响因素。本章结合中国贸易与投资的现实和中国长期以来的外贸和外资政策,从国内要素价格扭曲、外资优惠政策、跨国公司内部转移价格和中美贸易争端博弈等五个方面提出对中美贸易利益分配的影响。第六章,中国制成品贸易利益提升对策。基于第五章的影响因素,在本章强调应从要素市场的完善、加工贸易的升级、中国边际产业的对外转移、贸易与投资政策的调整等方面提出实现中国贸易利益的提升。第七章,研究结论与后续研究展望。在前面各章分析基础上总结出论文的主要结论和研究中存在的不足,并为论文后续研究指明方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 Intra-industry trade has been accounting for quite an important position in world trade since 1970s last century. It has become a major force driving the development of a new type international division of labor, accelerating the development of emerging and dominant industries. Intra-industry trade is a decisive factor, which determines the overseas trade development of developed economies and exerts profound influences on the development of international trade engaged in by developing nations. China’s sustainable and fast economic growth, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the context of trade liberalization are catching the eyes of the world. People witness the great changes taking place in the commodity structure of China’s foreign trade. Machinery and electronic products have become the most important exports of the country, replacing the traditional position held by textiles and apparels. Meanwhile, factors such as rising income per capita, diversified trend of consumption demand, and continuous expansion of FDI in size and the like have continuously promoted the development of intra-industrial trade in China’s manufactured exports and imports, resulting in the daily rising proportion of intra-industrial trade in the country’s foreign trade, machinery and electronic appliance such as motors, integrated circuit, transformers, electronic printing circuit, electronic switches, to name some of them.During the last three decades of reform and opening up to the rest of the world, fundamental changes have taken place in China’s internal and external economic environment. In the context of economic globalization, the great challenges facing China are the appreciation of RMB, soaring prices of raw materials, rising of labor cost, huge amount of trade imbalance between China and the USA. It is worthwhile for us to have specific study on Sino-US trade and gains from trade. The reason why intra-industry trade in manufactured goods of China and the US is chosen as the cutting edge is just due to the following: Firstly, China is a developing country with the greatest potential in the world today, whereas the US is a developed country with economic strength ranking at the top of the world list. Trade between these two countries are characterized by its complementarity. Secondly, along with the widespread of economic globalization, trade in manufactured goods has become a mainstream of China’s exportation. Compared to primary products, more weight is carried by intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the US. In the area of vertical division of labor system of global value chain, which is dominated by developed nations, the manufacturing function of China has been brought into full play, abiding by the principle of optimizing allocation of global resources in light of different production stages or divisibility of production operations and the comparative advantages enjoyed by individual nations. Thirdly, the unique trade benefits generated via intra-industry trade in manufactured good are totally different from the traditional trade gains in its basic connotation. And it is this difference that prompts us to discuss in details the way China should take in her participation in international trade with economic globalization as the platform so as to gain more trade benefits. Certainly that must be in compliance with China’s characteristics.On the basis of internal and external economic conditions, this dissertation tries to apply the relevant theories covered in International Economics, Industrial Economics, and Management, taking the methodology of theoretical approaches and empirical analysis. The paper illustrates in theory the reasons of occurence and mechanism of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA, conducting research on intra-industry trade in manufactured goods and trade benefits gained by these two nations. This thesis consists of four parts:Part I, the status quo and theoretical explanation of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA. PartⅡ, the foundation on which intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA take shape. Part III, the source and distribution of gains from intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA. Part IV, policy recommendations to increase the share of trade gains. Specifically, the paper is composed of 8 chapters:Introduction. On the basis of a general description of the research background and significance, this part introduces the basic research route and research methodology, main content, layout and a summary of main innovative arguments of the thesis, with combination of study on intra-industry trade both at home and abroad, the status quo of research on intra-industry trade based on FDI.Chapter 1, traditional theories and their development in the area of intra-industry trade. This Chapter discusses the theoretical models and method of measurement. Firstly, it seeks the sources from which theories have been developed, by a summary of evolution or a road-map. Secondly, it explains the two basic forms taken by traditional theories on intra-industry trade, namely, horizontal intra-industry trade model and vertical intra-industry trade model. Both models take final products as trade objects and products of same industry are thus simultaneously exported and imported among developed nations and among developed nations and developing ones.Thirdly, it points out that the theory of vertical intra-industry trade has already been expanded in scope in the area of trade between developed countries and LDCs. It shows that the implication of vertical intra-industry trade has expanded to the importation and exportation of parts and components, intermediate products or processing products produced via various working procedures or different production links within the same industry, with MNCs as carriers. It gives the summary of the methods of measuring intra-industry trade and argues that the basic method adopted by this thesis is G-L Index. In addition, GHM and Input-output Analysis are introduced to demonstrate the expansion of vertical intra-industry trade.Chapter 2, the development of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA. This chapter starts with the discussion of structural attributes of Sino-US trade in manufactured goods, and followed with a comparison of the development in intra-industry trade of labor-intensity, capital or technology-intensity between China and the USA, based on an analysis of the general development situation of China’s intra-industry trade and the general development level of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between these two nations. The paper argues that machinery and transport equipment are shown to be of higher intra-industry trade indexed and higher in the degree of vertication. This feature highlights the expanded form of vertical intra-industry trade in the context of globalization. In other terms, intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA means the importation and exportation of parts and components, intermediate products or processing products in different working procedures or production links within the same industry.Chapter 3, micro foundation of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA. This chapter points out that micro foundation of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA lies in the difference in factor structure between these two nations, FDI made by the USA in China and development of processing trade between these two nations. The paper examines the impacts of FDI on intra-industry trade by application of theoretical models and economic data relevant to vertical investments made by the US in China. An empirical model is set up to illustrate the impacts of FDI on China’s intra-industry trade. The development of China’s processing trade based on FDI is highly complementary with that of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA. In addition, the paper conducts an empirical research on the foundation of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between these two nations, taking the example of the development of processing trade in the city of Shanghai.Chapter 4, source and distribution of gains resulting from intra-industry trade between China and the USA. This chapter differentiates the intra-industry trade gains and traditional trade gains, added by a brief account of the basic situation of intra-industry trade in manufactured goods between China and the USA in the participation in the global value chain. The paper gives a detailed account of the fact that the trade gains originate in industrial added value, exclusivity of production factors and production control patterns employed by MNCs in the context of economic globalization. It is argued that in the division of global value chain dominated by MNCs, China is in a relatively unfavorable position in the distribution of trade gains. It can be seen that there is an asymmetric distribution of trade gains between China and the USA. This Chapter ends with an empirical analysis of tax revenue and renumeration gained by China and their determination in the vertical division of labor in terms of industrial value chain, by citing an example of personal computer industry. Chapter 5, factors affecting distribution of gains from trade between China and the USA. This Chapter focuses on five areas which exert impacts on the distribution of trade gains between China and the USA, based on the reality of China’s international trade and international investment, foreign trade policy and policies regarding acquisition of foreign capital implemented over the past decades. The five areas cover distortion of domestic factor market, China’s preferential inbound FDI policies, transfer price with the exclusivity of foreign capital and trade game between China and the USA.Chapter 6, policy recommendations on increasing trade gains of China’s manufactured goods. Based on the discussion of Chapter 5, this Chapter lays an emphasis on the examination of policy recommendations for parties concerned on increasing China’s share of trade gains. These include promoting and perfecting factor market, upgrading processing trade, transferring marginal industry overseas, adjusting trade and investment policies, drawing on the quotable experience from NIEs and so on.Chapter 7, findings and prospect for follow-up research. This Chapter brings to the major conclusion on the basis of analysis made by the previous six Chapters, and points out the deficiencies of the current research and suggests the direction toward which follow-up research can be conducted.更多还原