新兴大国崛起中的国际经济协调

【作者】 黎兵；

【导师】 刘杰；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济学， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 新兴大国的崛起和霸权国家的相对衰落必然会对现行的国际经济体系造成冲击,为避免国际经济体系变革和转型过程中出现的混乱和无序,新兴大国和霸权国家有责任进行国际经济协调与合作。中美战略经济对话是国际经济协调的新发展。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家之间的高层次经济协调与合作机制,中美战略经济对话是国际经济关系中的新现象。对于这一具有历史意义的重大事件,我们有必要对其进行全面而深入的研究,把握其背景、主题、影响因素、意义、存在的问题与未来的发展趋向。论文以新兴大国崛起为研究背景,以国际经济协调为研究主线,以中美战略经济对话为研究客体,有助于我们充分而透彻地理解中美战略经济对话的重大历史和现实意义,丰富和发展传统的国际经济协调理论,在未来的中美经济外交实践中把握主动,更好地维护自身权益。本论文的主体共分七个部分,主要内容如下:导论。内容包括论文选题的背景和意义,国内外研究现状,研究的基本思路和方法,研究的主要内容和创新。第一章,国际经济协调的概念、理论与实践。国际经济协调作为国际经济关系中的重要现象,始终在世界经济的运行中扮演着重要的角色。本章对国际经济协调的概念进行了拓展,强调各国的微观经济政策也进入国际经济协调的内容;按国际经济协调的程度、方式、组织形式对国际经济协调进行了分类;从国际政治经济学的角度探讨了霸权稳定论、国际机制论和国际经济协调之间的关系;运用博弈论中的“囚徒困境”博弈模型以及滨田图示证明了国际经济协调的必要性;认为各国对经济运行的观点不一致、国内政治和制度因素的制约、经济地位的不对称性、“第三国问题”、“搭便车”行为与信誉问题阻碍了国际经济协调的顺利进行;按照历史的纬度将二战后国际经济协调的实践划分为三个阶段,不同阶段的国际经济协调呈现出不同的特点。第二章,中美战略经济对话的背景。作为世界上最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家之间的高层次经济协调与合作机制,中美战略经济对话是国际经济关系中的新现象。对于这一具有历史意义的新现象,本章从中美经贸关系的历史进程及相应的经贸对话机制、创立中美战略经济对话机制的缘由等多角度考察了中美战略经济对话的背景。自1972年尼克松访华至2001年中国“入世”,中国与美国的经贸关系发展经历了恢复、快速发展、加速发展等三个时期。2001年底中国正式加入WTO,中美经贸关系的发展也随之进入一个新的阶段。在创立中美战略经济对话机制之前,中美联合经济委员会、中美商贸联委会是两国经贸协调与合作以及经贸争端磋商的主要机制。这两个机制与当时的中美经贸发展水平是相互适应的,为推动中美经贸关系的平稳健康发展作出了应有的贡献。本章分别从国际经济体系变革和转型、共同应对全球性问题、中美两国战略定位、中美经贸相互依存、美国对华经贸新战略、促进区域和世界经济稳定发展等角度探究了创立中美战略经济对话机制的缘由。中美战略经济对话不是一时出现的偶发事件,而是具有历史的必然性,也是中美关系的现实需要。第三章,中美战略经济对话的议题。中美战略经济对话的议题众多,本章将其归为两类:第一类是中美贸易失衡及其衍生议题,包括人民币汇率问题、中国金融市场开放、双边投资和双边投资保护协定、知识产权保护等;第二类是全球性问题,包括能源和环境、产品质量和食品安全、共同应对国际金融危机等。第一类议题产生的深层次原因是中美经济体制的差异,美国以贸易失衡为由向中国施压,试图干涉中国改革开放进程,获取更大的经济利益。由于中美经贸关系的非对称性相互依存,中国为维护中美经贸关系的大局,在此类问题上作出了一定程度的妥协。当然,对话也并非是中国的单方面让步,中国也取得了一些成果。第二类议题均是中美面临的共同挑战,两国利用中美战略经济对话机制就此类议题进行了密切的协调与合作,中美在此类议题上有着巨大的共同利益和广阔的合作空间。但是,中国也要警惕美国诱导中国在共同应对全球性问题上承担无限的“国际责任”。事实证明,中美在平等相待、互利共赢的基础上开展国际经济协调与合作对于两国经济以及世界经济都是十分重要的。第四章,中美战略经济对话的影响因素。权力因素是影响中美战略经济对话的重要因素。由于中美经贸关系的非对称性相互依存和整体实力的差距,中美两国在对话中所处的地位是不对等的,中国在对话中更多地处于被动反应的弱势地位。中美战略经济对话并非单单是两国政府间的对话,也受到两国国内政治因素的影响。由于政治体制的差异,中美战略经济对话尤其受到美国国内政治的影响,美国涉华利益集团和美国国会都试图直接或间接地对中美战略经济对话施加影响。随着中国经济的持续增长以及整体实力的提升,美国对中国的依存程度会逐渐上升,中国对美国的对话地位也会逐渐上升。中美战略经济对话也受到国际经济形势的影响,共同应对国际金融危机不仅给对话增添了新的内容,同时也将双方通过对话机制进行的协调和合作引向深入,将对话提升到了一个新的高度。第五章,中美战略经济对话的意义、问题与前景。中美战略经济对话机制实际上是新兴大国和霸权国家之间相互调整与适应的机制。中美两国通过该机制进行协调与合作,对于保证国际经济体系有序转型,乃至世界和平发展都有着十分重大的意义。本章首先对中美战略经济对话的意义进行了深入探讨。中美战略经济对话存在的最大问题是,由于非对称的中美经贸关系和整体实力的差距,中国在对话中更多地处于被动反应的弱势地位。美国存在借中美战略经济对话机制向中国转嫁调整成本、转移国内矛盾,要求中国进行单方面政策调整,诱导中国承担无限“国际责任”的企图。我们在同美国进行经济协调与合作的同时,也要对其企图保持高度警惕。本章还从多个视角展望了中美战略经济对话的前景,认为中美今后将继续延续、深化、提升诸如中美战略经济对话之类的高层协调与合作机制。随着中国综合国力的提升,中美在高层经济协调与合作机制中的地位将日趋对等。结语。在前面各章分析的基础上归纳出论文的主要结论,并对论文的后续研究指出方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rise of emerging powers and the relative decline of the superpower are bound to bring about impact on the existing international economic system. In order to avoid the chaos and disorder in the process of change and transition of the system, the emerging powers and the superpower should take the responsibility of international economic coordination and cooperation. Sino-US Strategic Economic Dialogue(SED) is a new development of international economic coordination. As the high-level coordination and cooperation mechanism between the largest developing country and the largest developed country in the world, SED is a new phenomenon in international economic relations. We need to make comprehensive and in-depth research on the historic important event, and grasp its background, theme, influencing factors, significance, problems and future development trend. The dissertation takes the rise of emerging powers as research background, international economic coordination as research thread, SED as research object. It will help us to fully and thoroughly understand the great historic and practical significance of SED, enrich and develope the traditional theory of international economic coordination, take the initiative and better safeguard our own rights and interests in the future Sino-US economic diplomatic practices.The main body of the dissertation is divided into seven parts, main contents are as follows:Introduction. It includes the background and significance of dissertation topic, research status at home and abroad, basic research idea and methods, main research contents and innovation.ChapterⅠ, The Concept, Theory and Practices of International Economic Coordination. As an important phenomenon in international economic relations, international economic coordination always plays an important role in the run of world economy. This chapter developes the concept of international economic coordination, and emphasizes that the microeconomic policies enter into the contents of international economic coordination. According to the degree, method, organization form of international economic coordination, the dissertation classifies international economic coordination. From the perspective of international political economy, the dissertation discusses the relations among the hegemonic stability theory, the international regime theory and international economic coordination. The dissertation uses the“Prisoner’s Dilemma”game model and the Hamada diagram in game theory to prove the necessity of international economic coordination. The dissertation considers that inconsistent opinions of various countries on the the operation of economy, constraints of domestic political and institutional factors, asymmetry of the economic status,“a third country problem”,“free-rider”behavior and incredibility hinder international economic coordination. In accordance with history, the practices of international economic coordination after World War II are divided into three stages, which shows different characteristics at different stages.ChapterⅡ, The Background of SED. As the high-level coordination and cooperation mechanism between the largest developing country and the largest developed country, SED is a new phenomenon in international economic relations. For this new historic phenomenon, this chapter studies the background of SED from the perspective of history of Sino-US economic and trade relations, corresponding economic and trade dialogue mechanisms, and foundation causes of SED. From Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 to China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations had experienced three periods: recovery, rapid development and accelerated development. By the end of 2001 China entered the WTO, the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations entered a new stage. Before the foundation of SED mechanism, Sino-U.S. Joint Economic Committee and Sino-U.S. Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade are the main mechanisms of bilateral economic and trade coordination, cooperation and disputes negotiation. The two mechanisms are adapted to the development level of Sino-US economic and trad at that time, and contribute to promote stable and healthy development of Sino-US economic and trade relations. This chapter studies the foundation causes of SED from the perspective of the international economic system change and transition, joint responses to global issues, the strategic positioning of China and the US, Sino-US economic and trade interdependence, the US new economic and trade strategy to China and the promotion of regional and world economy. SED is not a temporary incident, but with the inevitability of history, and real requirement of Sino-US relations.ChapterⅢ, The Issues of SED. SEDs have many issues, and they are classified as two categories in this chapter: the first categories are Sino-US trade imbalance and its derivative issues, including the issues of RMB exchange rate, China’s financial market liberalization, bilateral investment and bilateral investment treaty, and intellectual property rights protection; the second categories are global issues, including energy and environment, product quality and food safety, and joint responses to the international financial crisis. The first issues arise from the deep-seated economic system differences between China and the US, and in excuse of trade imbalance the US exerts pressure on China in order to interfere in China’s reform and opening-up process and obtain more economic benefits. Because of asymmetric interdependence in Sino-US economic and trade relations, China makes compromise with the US on such issues in order to maintain the overall situation of Sino-US economic and trade relations. Of course, SED is not China’s unilateral concessions, China also has yielded some results. The second issues are the common challenges facing China and the US, China and the US make use of SED mechanism to closely coordinate and cooperate, and they have enormous common interests and broad cooperation space on such issues. However, China should be cautious that the US induces China to undertake unlimited“international responsibilities”on such issues. Facts have proved that it is very important for China and the US to undertake international economic coordination and cooperation on the base of equality and mutual benefit.ChapterⅣ, The Influencing Factors of SED. SED is deeply affected by power. Because of asymmetric interdependence in Sino-US economic and trade relations and overall strength disparity, China and the US is not equal in SED, and China is in a weak position which responses passively. SEDs are not only inter-governmental dialogues, but also are influenced by domestic political factors. Because of differences in political system, SED is especially influenced by the US domestic politics. Interest groups concerning China in the US and the US Congress are trying to influence SED directly or indirectly. With China’s sustained economic growth and enhancement of overall strength, the US will increase the dependence degree to China gradually, and China’s status will lift gradually. SED is also influenced by international economic situation. Joint responses to international financial crisis not only add new contents to SED, but also deepen coordination and cooperation through dialogue mechanism, and lift SED to a new highness.ChapterⅤ, The Significance, Problems and Prospects of SED. In fact, SED mechanism is a mechanism of adjustment and adaptation between an emerging power and the superpower. China and the US undertake coordination and cooperation through the mechanism, which is important to ensure an orderly transition of the international economic system, and even to world peace and development. First of all, this chapter elaborates the significance of SED. The most serious problem of SED is that China is in a weak position which responses passively because of asymmetric interdependence in Sino-US economic and trade relations and overall strength disparity. The US tends to shift adjustment costs, transfer internal contradictions, demand China to undertake unilateral policy adjustments, and induce China to undertake unlimited“international responsibilities”through the mechanism. China coordinate and cooperate with the US; however, China should be cautious of its purposes. This chapter forecasts the prospects of SED from a number of perspectives, and considers China and the US will continue, deepen and lift high-level coordination and cooperation mechanisms, such as SED. With the lift of China’s comprehensive national power, China and the US will be equal gradually in high-level economic coordination and cooperation mechanisms.Conclusion. On the basis of the analyses in the previous chapters, the dissertation summarizes the main conclusions from the dissertation, and point out the direction of follow-up study.更多还原