中国商业银行外部风险研究

【作者】 周路；

【导师】 张幼文；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 世界经济， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 商业银行的经营风险与外部环境有非常密切的关系,特别是在经济转轨国家。在中国经济体制改革三十年中,中国的商业银行为支持配合中国的经济体制改革承担了巨大的改革成本,其自身风险管理体制也经受了巨大挑战与考验。从1998年以来,国家通过分次注资和两次大规模剥离不良资产,鼓励支持银行上市改造,引进战略投资者,进行了最大规模的银行产权改制,推动中国商业银行加快自身产权制度的改革。在总结中国商业银行不良资产形成原因时,过去的研究往往集中于银行内部风险控制体制发展的阶段性缺陷,但对这种缺陷存在的历史条件和现实体制因素等外部影响估计不足。随着中国经济体系和金融体系深度融入世界经济体系包括国际金融体系,国外金融危机对中国国内金融体系的影响越来越大,人们更加关心中国金融体系自身保持稳定与安全的社会基础。基于这样的背景,本文试图对中国商业银行外部风险环境进行探索研究,希望能为政府的政治经济体制改革和中国商业银行的风险管理机制健全完善提供一些思路。本文的研究内容主要包括三个部分:第一部分是导论,提出论文研究的问题,介绍研究背景,界定研究范围,确定全文的研究基础;第二部分包括第1、2章,介绍本文研究的理论综述和国外实证经验,为本文的分析奠定理论框架和实证基础;第三部分包括第3、4、5章,从国内和国际两个视角探讨中国商业银行所面临的外部风险,包括特点、成因、趋势分析,并提出建设中国金融秩序的合理治理框架和预防银行业外部风险的对策建议。具体章节安排如下:第1章主要对国内外有关银行风险的相关理论述评,分析金融风险传统理论与银行风险、金融生态理论与银行风险、新制度经济学理论与银行风险、转轨经济学理论与银行风险,奠定本文研究的理论基础。第2章从国外银行业不良资产分析入手,介绍美国、日本、东亚、拉美等国家银行业外部风险的成因和应对实践,研究防范和控制商业银行不良资产的国际协作机制与国际监管,是本文研究中国商业银行外部风险的国外借鉴的构成部分。第3章从中国银行业面临的国内风险环境角度,分析了国内商业银行外部经营环境对银行不良资产变化的影响以及相关的不同意见。首先回顾有关银行剥离不良资产的统计数据和典型案例;其次对国内现有对银行业不良资产成因分析基础上,提出中国商业银行不良资产与过去的经济体制有相当密切的关系,指出中国商业银行机构很难摆脱行政干预是因为宪法并没有对政府干预经济的权力边界做出明确的规定;最后本章对中国金融治理新秩序的框架提出初步构想,认为这个治理结构应是民主的、多层次的和能被广泛社会监督的。第4章对中国商业银行在开放经济条件下,所面临的国际外部风险进行分析研究。首先是对中国商业银行业的国际化经营所遭遇的金融全球化挑战进行概括性的分析描述;其次是分析研究当代金融自由化背景下的国际资本流动引发银行风险的一般机理,并实证分析国际资本流动对中国商业银行业带来的挑战问题;最后分析研究国际汇率变动下商业银行汇率变动产生的若干来源,并实证分析国际汇率变动尤其是人民币汇率变动给中国商业银行业带来的挑战问题。第5章是结束语。在对全文加以总结的基础上,提出改善国内外银行经营环境的应对建议和对策。在应对国内外部风险时:建议改变政府的绩效考核目标方式,重新界定政府经济职能的边界,将维护金融稳定与安全作为重要考核指标;适当时候成立宪法法院,监督政府施政行为和违宪行为,维护宪法秩序和尊严;设立金融法院,集中审理与金融有关的案件,重新解释抵押债权的优先顺序,强化金融债权保护;发挥社会组织、媒体的监督作用,明确规定和不断提高金融机构的信息透明度。在应对国外风险时:建议建立多层次的国际监管与金融交流体系,积极参与推动国际金融组织与监管组织的改革,建立更加公平、民主、合理的国际金融秩序。本文的主要结论和创新之处包括:1、通过应用国内外金融风险理论,包括金融生态仿生理论和转轨理论分析中国商业银行不良资产的生成因素,提出外部环境包括政府行为可能是中国商业银行资产风险形成的主要原因。要解决政府跨界行政干预,有必要成立宪法法院来监督制约政府违宪行为,如地方保护主义等。2、中国金融债权保护不力除了政府对稳定等政治目标考虑过高之外,还有与抵押权应优先保护的法理价值观落后有关。积极的金融保护有利推动经济与金融发展,有利提供更多就业机会和增加社会财富。为加强金融债权保护,有必要成立金融法院。3、为了加强与改善金融监管,有必要成立国家金融稳定委员会。同时相应成立金融监管局,将目前的分散监管改为集中监管,在提高监管效率的同时推进国际金融治理合作。在论文的写作过程中,由于笔者的学识、知识结构、精力与时间、数据获取限制等因素,本文仅对中国商业银行外部风险环境问题进行了初步的研究,对于一些更深层次的问题,如银行债权优先保护的法理依据研究,对政府行政干预权边界的划分研究,关于金融多层次监管的研究等,这些将是作者今后继续深入研究的主要方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 The operational risks of commercial banks are highly related to the external environment, especially in the transitional economy. During the China’s 30-year reform and opening-up period, Chinese commercial banks have taken huge costs to support china’s economic reform and their risk management systems are facing great challenges. Since 1998, Chinese government has supported commercial banks’IPO, the introduction of strategic investors and ownership reform to speed up Chinese commercial banks’ownership reform, by capital injections and twice large-scale removal of non-performing assets. When summarize the reasons of the forming of non-performing assets in china’s bank industry, past researches always focus on the periodical drawbacks of the internal risk management system, and underestimate the external influence from its historical condition and realistic systematic factors. With the integration of Chinese economic and financial system into the external world, foreign financial crisis’s influence on china’s financial system is becoming larger and larger, so that people pay more attention to the social basis of the maintaining of china’s financial system’s safety and stability.Based on such background, this paper tries to analyze the external risk environment of Chinese commercial banks, hoping to provide some thoughts to government on political and economic reform as well as the improvement of commercial banks’risk management mechanism.This paper includes three parts: the first part is introduction, which introduces the targeted problem, background, clarifies research range, and chooses the research basis for this paper; the second part includes chapter 1 and 2, which introduce the theoretical review and foreign empirical research to build up theoretical framework and empirical basis for the later analysis; the third part includes chapter 3, 4 and 5, which discuss the external risks Chinese commercial banks are facing from both domestic and international point of view, including characteristics, reasons, and trend analysis, and also put forward the suggestions on how to build up proper governing framework for Chinese financial orders and prevent the external risks.The detailed arrangements are as follows:Chapter 1 mainly reviews the related theory on banks’risk, analyzing financial risk’s traditional theory, financial eco-theory, neo-systematic economics, and transitional economics to build up theoretical basis for this paper.Chapter 2 starts from foreign banks’non-performing assets, introducing the reasons of external risks and solving practice in America, Japan, East Asia, Latin America, etc. And then analyzes the international cooperation mechanism and regulation on preventing and controlling banks’non-performing assets, which is the component of the foreign reference of this paper’s research on Chinese commercial banks’external risks.Chapter 3 analyzes external operating environment’s influence on banks’non-performing assets and related different opinions. First, reviews the related statistical data and typical cases about the removal of banks’non-performing assets; second, based on the analysis of the reason of domestic banks’existing non-performing assets, points out the quite strong relationships between non-performing assets and past economic system, and concludes that the reason why Chinese commercial banks are hard to get rid of administrative intervention is because the Constitution has no clear regulation on the edge of government’s economic intervention power; at last puts forward initial tentative plan of the new orders of Chinese financial governing, which should be democratic, multi-level and monitored by people from all works of life.Chapter 4 analyzes the external risks faced by china’s bank industry, under the china’s opening-up condition. First, describes and analyzes the financial globalization challenge faced by Chinese commercial banks’international operation; second, analyzes the mechanism of bringing risks by international capital flow under the modern financial liberalization, and analyzes the challenge faced by Chinese commercial banks brought by international capital flows empirically; at last, analyzes several origins of commercial banks’foreign exchange rate fluctuation along with the international foreign exchange rate fluctuation, and analyzes the challenge faced by Chinese commercial banks caused by international foreign exchange rate fluctuation empirically, especially RMB exchange rate fluctuations.Chapter 5 is the concluding remarks. Based on the summary of the whole paper, put forward suggestions on how to improve banks’both external and internal operating environments. As to the domestic external risks: suggest that we should change government’s way of performance appraisal, re-clarify the edge of government’s economic function, and set the maintaining of financial stability and safety as one important appraisal criteria; change the National People’s Congress-centered legislative committee into Constitution court, monitoring government’s operation and unconstitutional acts, and maintain the constitutional order and dignity; set up financial court to handle financial cases, re-explain the priority of mortgage debt, and strengthen the protection of financial debt; make full use of the power of social organization and media, regulate and improve the information disclosure of financial institutions regularly. As to the foreign risks: suggest that we should set up multi-level system for international regulation and financial communication, participate in promoting the reform of international financial organization and regulative organization actively, to set up more fair, democratic, and proper international financial orders.The main conclusion and innovation of this paper include:1. By applying domestic and foreign theory on financial risks, including financial eco-theory and transitional theoretical analysis of the forming factors of Chinese commercial banks’non-performing assets, this paper points out that external environment including governmental behaviors are probably the main reason for the forming of Chinese commercial banks’asset risks. In order to solve the problem caused by government administrative intervention, we need to set up constitutional court to monitor and regulate government’s unconstitutional behaviors, such as Local protectionism, etc.2. The inefficient protection of Chinese financial claims is not only related to the over-consideration of stability and other political factors by government, but also related to the backward compared to the foreign active legislative value which protects the mortgages right first. Active financial claim protection measures are good to promote economic development, provide opportunities for more fair and efficient anti-unemployment and increase of social welfare. To strengthen financial claims protection, it is necessary to set up financial court.3. To strengthen and improve financial regulation, it’s necessary to set up the National Financial Stability Committee and Financial Regulation Committee of the highest level, change the current separate regulation to integrated regulation, and promote international financial cooperation efficiently while improve the efficiency of domestic financial regulation.During the composition of this paper, because of some limiting factors, such as the writer’s knowledge volume and structure, energy, time, data availability, etc, this paper’s research on Chinese commercial banks’external risk environment is not deep enough. There are also some further issues which are the main contents of the writer’s future research, such as research on the legislative foundation of bank’s claim protection, research on the clarify of the edge of government’s intervention power, research on multi-level financial regulation, etc.更多还原