转型经济中的货币需求与M₂/GDP的变动

【作者】 张波；

【导师】 胡家勇；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 博士

【副题名】投机视角下基于中国市场化改革历程的实证研究

【摘要】 M2/GDP比例的不断走高是中国市场化改革以来出现的一种特有经济现象。为了能够对这种经济现象做出较为合理的解释,本文利用弗里德曼所提供的货币理论分析框架以及麦金农的理论研究方法,将经济生活中一种重要的经济现象——投机引入货币需求函数,由此形成了一个有助于更加全面解释不发达经济运行的宏观经济模型。该模型和麦金农的宏观经济模型的唯一不同之处在于引入了一个投机市场,它的存在虽然没有改变麦金农关于实际货币余额提高将有助于经济增长的基本观点,却使其有关金融深化的政策主张失效。为了在新模型下找到不发达经济持续增长的路径,我们提出了不同的政策主张,那就是政府需要对投机市场进行干预。有趣的是,这一政策安排会产生和麦金农的金融深化主张相同的结果,那就是M2/GDP的上升。为此,我们提出了一个关于M2/GDP增长的命题,认为在投机存在的情况下,M2/GDP的增长是政府与投机主体相互博弈的结果。如同麦金农在提出了自己的宏观模型之后转入关于金融深化的政策讨论一样,我们在新模型的基础上也进行了类似的研究,将着眼点集中在中国市场化改革过程中一项极具特色的体制安排——价格双轨制上。为此,我们分两个时期对价格双轨制中的投机行为以及政府对其采取的干预措施进行了研究,同时提出了本文的核心观点——中国M2/GDP的变动导源于价格双轨制这一制度安排下的投机与控制,即认为:一方面,价格双轨制的实施人为创造了一个投机市场,为投机者源源不断地创造盈利空间,使得整个社会的投机性货币需求动机持续增长;另一方面政府又出于对双轨制的保护而采取了各种干预措施影响投机的风险和难度,使得投机者不得不增加货币的持有量。这样一来,虽然传统市场的资金会由于投机机会的存在而转入投机市场,但是它只是更多地推动了投机性货币需求曲线向右移动,即投机性货币需求的增加,而没有伴随投机品价格的相应上升。也就是说,用以满足投机性货币需求的货币供给,仅仅作为持币待购的投机资金存在,它既不会带来产出的增加,也没有引起任何的物价变动,因此从指标上来看,货币供应量与名义产出之间发生了脱节,从而出现了M2/GDP比例的提升。据此我们得出结论:在中国, M2/GDP比例的上升是以价格双轨制为特征的渐进式改革在货币金融领域的一种写照,它在未来的走势如何,将要取决于中国政府是否会在接下来的市场化改革中继续使用价格双轨制的改革逻辑。而对于货币当局来说,根据M2/GDP比例的不同走势制定不同的货币政策中介目标将有助于其更好地发挥宏观调控的职能。更多还原

【Abstract】 The increasing proportion of M2/GDP has become a unique economic phenomenon since China’s market-oriented reforms.In order to offer a sensible explanation, this article, based on Friedman’s monetary framework for theoretical analysis and McKinnon’s theoretical research methods, introduces speculation, an important phenomenon in economic life, to money demand function, and contributes to the formation of a macroeconomic model, which helps to provide a more comprehensive explanation to the operation of underdeveloped economies. The only difference between this modal and McKinnon’s is the consideration of a speculative market, whose existence fails to make valid McKinnon’s policies and proposals regarding financial deepening although it has not changed McKinnon’s basic point that raising real money balances will conduce to economic growth. In search of a path to sustained growth in the new model for underdeveloped economies, we bring forward a different proposal that the government should intervene in the speculative market. It is interesting to note that this policy will produce the same result as McKinnon’s policies on financial deepening, that is, the increase in M2/GDP. To this end, we put forward a proposition about M2/GDP growth that with the presence of speculation M2/GDP growth results from the interactions between the government and speculators.Just as McKinnon shifted from his macro modal to policy analysis of financial deepening, we switch from our new model to relevant policy analysis, focusing on the double-track price system, which is a very unique institutional arrangement when China is undertaking market-oriented reforms. Therefore, the author studied speculative activities and government countermeasures under the double-track price system in two periods, and at the same time put forward the core viewpoint of this article: China’s M2/GDP changes derive from speculation and control arranged by the double-track price system. On the one hand, implementation of double-track price system has artificially set up a speculative market, and ensured speculators indefinite profit space, making motives of speculative demand for money in the whole society continue to grow; on the other hand, the government has adopted the dual-track price system to exert influence over speculative risks and difficulties through a variety of control measures, making speculators increase their currency holdings. As a result, the capital in the traditional market will be attracted to the speculative market because of potential speculative opportunities. However, it only pushes the speculative money demand curve farther to the right, which suggests an increase in speculative money demand, but it does not rise as speculative commodity prices go up. In other words, the money supply to meet the needs of speculative money demand only exists as speculative fund waiting to buy with cash in hand. It will neither bring about an increase in output, nor will it give rise to any price changes. Judging from the index, money supply fails to correspond with nominal output, which accounts for growth in M2/GDP proportion.On these grounds we have arrived at a conclusion: in China, M2/GDP is a reflection of gradual reforms characterized by double-track price system in monetary and financial areas. Where it is heading for will depend on whether the government will continue to apply the dual-track price system to its subsequent market-oriented reforms. As for the monetary authorities, setting different intermediate goals of monetary policy according to varying M2/GDP proportion will help bring their macro-control function into better play.更多还原