历史演进、制度变迁与效率考量

【作者】 尹振涛；

【导师】 魏明孔；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 经济史， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 本文主要以新制度经济史学的核心理论——制度变迁理论为分析框架,力求对近代中国证券市场进行全面系统地分析,清晰地勾勒出市场发展的历史轨迹,并作出客观、科学地评价。首先,借助制度变迁理论的供求分析框架,本文从制度的需求角度分析了近代中国证券市场产生的原因,并探讨了中国传统文化与证券市场之间的关系。作者认为,随着股份制企业的快速发展,原有的信贷体系根本无法满足市场日益膨胀的资金需求,证券融资模式成为客观需要。同时,近代中国证券市场是传统文化与西方思潮碰撞与融合的产物,更是中国近代化进程的附属品。其次,以制度变迁的主体为视角,通过考察初级行动团体与次级行动团体在证券市场制度变迁中的作为,阐述了晚清及北洋政府时期中国证券市场的发展历程。作者认为,在南京国民政府成立之前,中国证券市场的制度变迁属于初级行动团体领导下的诱致性变迁过程,表现出明显的市场主导性和自发性,而政府在其发展过程中仅起到辅助性的次要作用。复次,以政府为主要考察对象,通过分析中央政府介入证券市场的目的与方式,评析证券市场中的政府行为,并阐述南京国民政府时期中国证券市场的发展历程。作者认为,中央政府以裁判员的身份干预近代证券市场,进行监督管理,以弥补自由市场的不足,是符合证券市场健康发展目标的,属于正向交替。同时,近代中央政府又以运动员的身份参与证券市场,大量发行政府公债,无视市场的承受能力,更无视市场的反馈与抵制,使证券市场的演变方向与健康发展的目标相悖,造成逆向交替。再次,本文分析了证券市场与近代产业之间的关系以及钱庄、银行的证券投资行为,以此对近代中国证券市场的融资、资源配置功能的发挥以及外在效率的实现进行客观的评价。作者认为,近代证券市场不为产业服务,产业发展也不依托证券市场,产业与证券市场严重脱节。钱庄与银行是近代中国证券市场最重要的投资者之一,而投资态度的差异与参与程度的高低注定了钱庄的没落与银行的兴盛。最后,通过考察近代中国证券市场的价格波动情况,从市场和政府两个方面分析波动的原因,以此诠释近代中国证券市场的资本定价功能的实现、市场运行的内在效率以及法治监管的执行情况。作者认为,近代中国证券市场价格波动剧烈,证券投机风潮迭起,投资者对市场没有稳定的预期,市场估值体系混乱,致使证券市场的资本定价功能丧失,严重影响了证券市场内在效率的实现。通过对近代中国证券市场的产生与发展、政府干预与监管、市场效率与投资者行为以及市场价格波动与效率等方面的研究分析,作者认为近代中国证券市场具有明显的制度移植性,是在投资者等初级行动团体的需求和努力下产生的。近代中国证券市场的发展初期表现为诱致性制度变迁的自由发展特征,但随着以政府为代表的次级行动团体的出现与参与程度的加深,政府强制性干预成为市场发展的主导力量。在市场因素与政府因素的交替作用下,近代中国证券市场的历史演进与制度变迁呈现出曲折性、波动性、投机性、财政性以及不健全性,属于一个运行低效的资本市场。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis analyzes Modern China Securities Market systematically, expounds the historical evolution of Securities Market clearly and makes the evaluation for Securities Market objectively and scientifically, with the theory of Institution Change—the core theory of the New Institutional Economic History.Firstly, it analyzes the causes of Modern China Securities Market, and the functions of traditional cultures and concepts, with the angle of supply and demand relations in Institution Change Theory. According to this part, my opinion is that, with the fast development of joint-equity enterprises, the original credit system cannot satisfy the increasing fund demands, and thus it is the objective requirement for financing mode of securities. Meanwhile, the Modern China Securities Market is the result of conflict between Chinese traditional culture and western cultural thoughts.Secondly, with investigating the actions of elementary and secondary groups in the development course of securities market institution, it expounds the historical development of China Securities Market during the period of Late Qing Dynasty and Beiyang Government, from the angle of main subjects. According to this part, my opinion is that, before the establishment of Nanjing National Government, the institutional change of China Securities Market is the course which induced by some elementary groups, so it takes on obvious feature of market predominance, and government is just play a role as secondary and subsidiary element.Thirdly, from the angle of government, it analyzes the function of government in Securities Market during the period of Nanjing National Government, with the method of observing purpose and means by which central government intervened securities market. In this part, my opinion is that, it is a course of the positive direction development, and is corresponding with wholesome development aim of securities market, that the central government does intervention and regulation on Modern Securities Market to diminish the shortage of liberal market, with the role of .judge. At the same time, with the role of athlete, the central government takes part in securities market and publishes a great deal of government bonds, without considering the market endurance and resistance, so the result is contrary to wholesome development aim but the negative direction development. Fourthly, from the view of institutional efficiency, it states the investment conditions of native banks and banks, and analyzes the relations between Securities Market and modern industries, then concludes the evaluation to financing function, resource allocation function, and efficiency realization of Securities Market. In this part, my opinion is that, Modern Securities Market does not serve for industries, and industry development also does not rely on securities market. Native banks and banks are the two of the most important investors in Modern China Securities Market, and the conditions of different investing attitudes and different participation levels doom the downfall of native banks and the flourish of banks.Finally, from the angle of market and government, it states the price fluctuation of Modern Securities Market, and thus works out the capital pricing function, inner efficiency and legal supervision of Modern Securities Market. According to this part, my opinion is that, in Modern China Securities Market, it shows the situation of violent price fluctuation, frequent security speculation, no steady expectation of investors, and disorderly market evaluation system. As a result, in this kind of market, the capital pricing function is out of use, and the inner efficiency of securities market is far from sound realization.After discussing the causes and development of Modern Securities Market, the intervention and supervision of government, the market efficiency and investor behaviors, and the efficiency and performance of market fluctuation, it is believed that Modern China Securities Market is typically characterized by institutional portability. It is appeared with demands and efforts of some elementary groups, such as investors. Certainly it is characterized by liberal development with features of induced institutional change. Along with appearance of secondary groups such as governments as well as its deep participation in market, it is the government intervention that becomes main forces for market progress. With the interaction of the two elements of market and government, the course of institutional change of Modern China Securities Market takes on the characteristics of twist, volatility, speculation, finance and unsoundness, so it is the capital market with poor efficiency.更多还原