【作者】 章泽武；

【导师】 张培刚； 宋德勇；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 在中国过去的二十多年的改革开放过程中,外商直接投资作为推动中国经济增长和发展的一个宏观经济变量发挥了重要作用。但在外商直接投资大量进入中国期间,中国居民的收入增长水平呈现出与外商直接投资反向变动、收入差距与外商直接投资同向变动的关系。依据传统的国际经济理论和分配理论这是一种悖论。新古典经济学认为:在开放经济条件下,发展中国家内部密集使用高技术工人的产品的价格将会相对下降,密集使用非技术工人的产品价格将会相对上升。依据完全竞争市场上要素按其边际收益获取边际报酬的假定,技术工人的收入将会下降,非技术工人收入将会上升,收入差距将会缩小。同时外商直接投资作为一种隐含有技术进步因素的资本,它的进入必然改变发展中国家要素禀赋状况、生产技术水平和劳动的有效性,从而提高东道国居民收入水平。如何看待和解释这种悖论呢?为此本文借助内生增长理论的基本思路和工具对劳动供给既定条件下的技术工人供给的内生性进行了推导,构建了技术工人内生供给的劳动供给模型,并以此模型为基础对外商直接投资影响中国居民收入水平、收入结构的强度进行了验证,并检验了外商直接投资与影响中国居民收入关键变量之间的关系,解释了传统的国际经济理论与中国经济现实相背离产生的原因,并在此基础上提出了对策建议。本文首先对外商直接投资与中国居民收入状况的经验数据进行了分析,发现中国居民收入增长水平与外商直接投资的流入反向变动。外商直接投资流入降低了中国居民收入增长速度;外商直接投资大量进入的行业工资水平和增长率低于外商直接投资进入较少或没有进入的行业。在传统的经典理论范畴内,我们不能对此作出令人满意的解释。同时外商直接投资的进入加大了中国地区收入差距、行业收入差距和行业内收入差距。其次,为了对此种悖论做出合理解释,本文对中国居民收入的变动与外商直接投资之间的关系进行了实证检验。由于外商直接投资隐含的技术进步性质,使外商直接投资对东道国的异质性劳动体现出不同的偏好。在充分就业和劳动供给以不变的外生增长率供给的假定下,对劳动需求的增加将会导致工资水平的上涨。但现实的中国,一方面存在着大量知识失业,一方面存在着技术工人收入随着外商直接投资的持续进入而不断上涨现象。与此同时,整个社会居民消费水平和工资水平在GDP中所占比重呈下降态势。这种理论与现实的背离对传统的贸易理论、增长理论和分配理论提出了挑战。在异质性劳动由于居民跨期选择偏好而能在技术工人和非技术工人之间进行流动和转换时,技术工人的供给就演变成由企业支付的报酬、政府的鼓励补贴政策和居民的跨期选择偏好共同决定的内生变量。劳动节约型外商直接投资为了满足对密集使用技术工人需求的长期偏好,愿意在技术工人供给增加的条件下,以较高的报酬雇用技术工人。政府为了缩小与发达国家间的技术差距,能更好的吸收外商直接投资带来的技术溢出效应,愿意对技术工人进行转移支付,增加对技术工人的教育补贴。这导致了外商直接投资大量流入过程中中国技术工人收入水平远高于非技术工人,从而出现了居民收入水平的变化与传统经济理论的悖离。为了对该假说进行检验,本文以外商直接投资劳动节约型技术进步为基础构建了计量模型对外商直接投资影响中国居民收入水平的效果进行了验证。实证检验支持了假说。再次,为了衡量外商直接投资对中国居民收入差距的影响程度,本文通过在一系列假定的基础上对Cobb-Douglas生产函数进行了拓展,推导出封闭经济的变异系数和导入外商直接投资的开放经济的变异系数,通过变异系数的比较来衡量外商直接投资对中国居民收入差距的短期变动和长期影响。并以此分析为基础建立了固定效应计量模型(FEM)来衡量外商直接投资对中国吉尼系数的变动、区域收入差距的影响。发现外商直接投资的进入恶化了中国吉尼系数的水平,加大了地区间收入的不均衡。通过外商直接投资对中国居民收入水平和收入差距影响的检验,我们证明了在技术工人供给内生的条件下,由于外商直接投资劳动节约型特征导致的技术工人收入增长快于非技术工人收入增长引起的中国居民收入和收入差距变动。但这种变动是由那些中间变量传导的呢?从要素分配理论的角度来看,外商直接投资对居民收入的影响是通过改变资本禀赋状况、资本—产出比率和劳动生产率的水平来实现的。为了分析外商直接投资是如何影响这些变量以及影响程度的大小。本文在理论分析基础之上建立了相关计量模型,对外商直接投资影响中国就业水平、全社会劳动生产率水平和劳动有效性的程度进行了度量。发现1995年是外商直接投资影响中国就业的一个突变点。在1995之前,具有明显的就业效应;在1995之后就业效应明显弱化,外商直接投资体现出较强的劳动节约型技术进步特征,外商直接投资对中国的技术溢出正从水平效应向结构效应转变。同时,作为单纯的资本要素,外商直接投资对中国全社会劳动生产率的提高具有消极作用;而作为技术进步载体的外商直接投资对中国全社会劳动生产率的提高具有积极作用,对全社会劳动生产率影响的大小取决于外商直接投资技术水平的高低和中国对外商直接投资技术溢出的吸收能力。在这一过程中,劳动的有效性已成为中国承接外商直接投资技术溢出的重要载体,非技术工人收入状况在长期内将持续恶化。由于外商直接投资对中国居民收入影响在长期内结构效应要远大于增长效应,因而如何兴利除弊就成为有效利用外商直接投资的关键。为此,我们可以从外商直接投资政策、收入分配政策和公共教育政策方面来着手解决。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the last two decades’reform and opening up of China, Foreign Direct Investment(FDI) as a macroeconomic variable played a great role in pushing China’s economy growth and development. In the same time, the income growth level of the chinese residents reverses the inflow of FDI, while the income gap has the same tendency with FDI. It is a paradox according to the traditional international economic theories and the income distribution theory. New classical economics reckon that in the open economy of the developing countries, the price of the product centralizing technical workers will decrease comparatively,while the price of the product centralizing non-technical workers will increase comparatively. Accoding to the postulate that factors gain the marginal returns against the marginal revenue in the perfect competitive market, the technical workers’income will decrease while the non-technical workers’income will increase and the income gap of both will be narrowed. The inflow of FDI which occulting technical progress will necessarily change the factor endowment statement、the production technology level and the labor effectiveness of the developing country,then bring into increasing the income level of the host counry residents. How to explain the paradox? Depending on the basic thought and tool of endogenous growth theory,this article deduces the endogenesis of technical workers’supply on the premise of the given labor supply, constructs the endogenous labor supply model of the technical workers,verifies the intencity of FDI impacting to the income level and income structure of the chinese residents,tests the interrelation between FDI and the pivotal variables impacting to the residents’income,and explains why China’s economic reality deviates from the traditional international economic theories,so that presents the policy suggestions.Firstly, this article concludes that the chinese residents’income growth level has changed in the reverse tendency with the inflow of FDI by analyzing FDI and the empirical data of the chinese residents’income statement. The inflow of FDI slows down the residents’income growth pace. The salary level and the growth rate in the industries FDI swarming into are lower than those industries with less or even absent FDI . We can not give a satisfying explanation depending on the traditional classical theories. In the same time the inflow of FDI enlarges the income gap in different areas、different industries and even in the intra industry of China.Secondly,this article carries an empirical test on the relationship between the residents’income change and FDI to give a rational explanation against the paradox. FDI will show different preferences to the heterogenous labors of the host country because of the occulting technical progress in it. On the premises of full employment and labor supply by a fix exogenous growth rate, the increase of labor demand will lead to the rise of salary. Realistically there is large educated unemployment in China one hand, on the other hand,the incomes of technical workers increase continually with the sustaining inflow of FDI. In the same time,the proportions of the residents’income level and salary level in GDP have degressive tendencies. The deviation of theoretics and reality poses challenges to the traditional trade theory、growth theory and distribution theory. Because the heterogenous labor basing on the resident inter-temporal choice preferences can flow and switch between the technical workers and non-technical workers,the supply of technical workers will turn to a endogenous variable decided by the rewards paid by enterprises、the subsidy policies aroused by government and the inter-temporal preferences chosen by the residents. With the long term’s preferences of dense technical employee,the enterprises with labor-saving FDI would rather disburse more to the technical workers though the supply of them was increasing. To narrow the technical gap with the developed countries and make good use of the technology spillover effect of FDI,our govertment would rather implement transfer payments to technical workers and enhance their education subsidies. All these resulted in the incomes of the technical workers outclass those of non-technical workers,and this is why occuring that the residents incomes’changes deviate from the traditional economic theories. This article set up a econometric model to verify the effect of FDI to the resident income basing on the labor-saving FDI with technical progress. The empirical test supports the above hypothesis.Thirdly, to measure the influence of FDI on income gap in China,this article developed the Cobb-Douglas function depending on a series of premises,deducted the variation coeffecients in a closed economy and in an open economy with FDI. Comparing the variation coeffecients,we can learn the short-term and long-term effect of FDI on the resident’s income gap. We even set up FEM to explain how FDI affect the Gini Coefficient and the resident’s income gap in China . We found that the inflow of FDI worsens the Gini Coefficient’s level and increases the income imbalance of different areas.By verifying influence of FDI on the chinese residents’income level and income gap,we prove that in endogenous supply of technical workers,it will bring the changes of the resident income and income gap because the technical workers’income growth with labor-saving FDI character outclass the non-technical workers’. But which intermediate variables are these changes conducted by? According to the factor distribution theory,the influence of FDI on the resident income comes true by changing the capital factor endowment statement、the ratio of capitlal -output and the labor productivity. In the study about influence of FDI on these variables, we establishs the related econometric models to analyse the effect of FDI on employment statement、the whole society’s labor productivity and the labor effectiveness. We found that the 1995 year is a breakpoint in the study of FDI and employment. The employment effect is obvious before 1995,but be weaken after the year. The labor-saving technology progress is obvious too. The effect of FDI on technology spillover changes from the level effect to structure effect. In the same time,as a simplex capital factor,FDI affects the whole society’s labor productivity negatively while as a vector of technology progess, FDI improve it positively. The degree of influence on the whole society’s labor productivity depends on the different technology level of FDI and China’s ability to absorb the spillover technology. In this process, the labor effectiveness becomes an important vector. The income of non-technological workers would be severe chronically.The structure effect of FDI on China’s resident income is more significant than the growth effect, so it is important to make good use of FDI. In this article,we present some suggestions based on the FDI policy、income distribution policy and public education policy.更多还原