【作者】 杨晶；

【导师】 张建华；

【作者基本信息】 华中科技大学 ， 西方经济学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 我国自20世纪80年代开始举世瞩目的经济开放以来,城镇贫困的问题随着经济开放的深入迅速凸现并日益严峻。与农村贫困显著不同的是,城镇贫困更多的体现出冲击性,即受到经济开放的影响,经济体制急剧转轨,在城市中形成的以下岗职工和失业人员为主体的城市贫困群体。基于此,本文试图通过对开放经济条件下的城镇贫困的变动趋势的描述,结合理论和实践、定性分析和定量分析等方法,系统的研究经济开放对我国城镇贫困的影响。本文主要内容可概括为三个部分:第一部分(即本文第二章)描述了开放经济条件下我国城镇贫困的变动趋势。首先在回顾我国的经济开放历程的基础上,利用主成分分析法来度量经济开放程度。我国自实施经济开放的政策后,我国经济逐步从封闭经济到开放经济甚至开放型经济演化,但我国的经济开放是不均衡发展的,东部地区与中西部地区之间开放程度存在差异,并且差异逐渐拉大。其次,本章从贫困识别、贫困总量测度、贫困人口的分布和致贫原因四个方面分别描述了在经济开放的环境下我国城镇贫困变所体现的新变动趋势。结果表明,在开放经济条件下,相对贫困线能够更好的识别城镇贫困人口,因此我国目前所使用的“低保线”标准不合适,应当选用参考相对贫困线制定的更高的标准。因为经济开放带来的经济增长有效的提高了城镇贫困居民的收入水平,但是收入分配的恶化降低了经济增长的减贫效应,我国在开放以后城镇绝对贫困的总量显著下降,但相对贫困人口逐步增加。同时,我国城镇贫困主要集中在失业人口和身体不健康人口两类人群,而且呈现出行业和地区特征。因而,导致城镇贫困的主要原因来源于两方面,即宏观方面的经济增长和收入分配等原因和微观方面的贫困人口的素质差异和就业等因素。第二部分(本文第三章)从经济增长和收入分配视角分析了经济开放影响我国城镇贫困的影响,并发现存在“门槛效应”。本章首先利用协整的分析方法检验了经济开放与我国经济增长的关系,结果表明经济开放有利于我国的经济增长,但是各地区的影响不一致。接着本章分析了经济开放与我国收入分配的关系,表明经济开放将导致我国产业和企业之间、地区之间出现收入差距的扩大。因此,经济开放一方面带来我国经济高速增长,另一方面导致我国分配状况日益恶化时,其对我国城镇贫困的影响将受到经济增长和收入分配两个方面的共同作用。而本文分析济增长、收入分配对城镇贫困的影响后发现,尽管我国的经济增长在很大程度上缓解了我国城镇贫困,但收入分配的恶化严重的阻碍经济增长的减贫效果。这些分析使我们认识到经济开放对我国城镇贫困的影响是不确定的,受到经济开放的程度的影响,即存在“门槛效应”。本文从三个方面检验了“门槛效应”:(1)全国数据的协整检验结果表明,贸易自由化不利于城镇贫困,而FDI有利于城镇贫困,综合来看,经济开放有利于城镇贫困的减缓,而且经济开放对城镇贫困的影响受到经济开放程度的影响;(2)各省市时间序列数据的协整检验结果证实经济开放对城镇贫困的影响与经济开放程度高低有关,在经济开放程度较高的省市,经济开放有利于减缓城镇贫困;在经济开放程度较低的省市,经济开放不利于减缓城镇贫困;(3)各省市面板数据回归结果确认经济开放程度对城镇贫困的影响存在“门槛效应”,只有越过“门槛值”,经济开放才有利于减缓城镇贫困。第三部分(本文第四章)分析了经济开放影响城镇贫困的就业和价格变动渠道。首先,经济开放对就业的影响是双面的,受到经济开放推动就业的出口产业部门的城镇贫困人口状况改善,而进口产业部门和被FDI挤出的相关产业部门贫困人口状况恶化。其次,经济开放通过对国内价格波动的影响贫困人口也是双面的,经济开放导致物价水平提高,那么贫困人口作为进口商品的净购买者则其福利效应降低,而作为出口商品的净生产者则其福利效应提高。第三,经济开放通过技术进步与技术扩散、要素流动、面对冲击的脆弱性以及相应制度影响城镇贫困人口的效应也是不确定的,在这些机制的作用下,城镇贫困人口有的收益,有的受损。本文与以往研究最大的区别在于从开放经济的角度分析城镇贫困问题,重点从经济增长和收入分配角度和就业以及价格变动角度分析经济开放对城镇贫困的影响。研究结果显示经济开放对城镇贫困的影响存在“门槛效应”,因而,政府在制定政策时必须针对各省市不同的情况采取不同的措施,在东部地区应尽力发挥经济开放的减贫作用,而在中西部地区应当更注重收入分配的合理化。同时,从就业和价格变动角度看,经济开放对城镇贫困的影响存在不确定性。因此,政府应该尽力减少这些不确定性,减缓经济开放给城镇贫困带来的不利影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 The problem of urban poverty has emerged quickly and becoming worse and worse, since China began its famous openness from 1980’s. Being very different from the rural poverty, it appears more vulnerability. The poor people, mainly people lost their jobs, appear in urban areas because of the influence from the reformation and openness of the economy. About this, this dissertation makes systemic study on the impact of economic openness on the urban poverty, with the methods of integrating theory with practice, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The study includes the following three sections:Section I (Chapter 2) describes the trends of China’s urban poverty in the open economy condition. On the basis of the reviews of China’s opening processes, this paper firstly estimates the opening degree in China with the method of the principal component analysis. It shows that China has evolved step by step from a closed economy to an open economy. However, the opening developments are imbalanced, so that there has been gradually increasing differences of the opening degrees between the East and the West. Secondly, the trends of China’s urban poverty in the open economy condition are described by the poverty identifications, the aggregate poverty measurements, the distributions of the poor and the causes of poverty. It indicates that the relative poverty line will be better to indentify poverty in the open economy. So, the present minimum subsistence level is not appropriate and the government should raise the minimum subsistence level based on the relative poverty line. If the relative poverty line is chosen to indentify poverty, the aggregate poverty has benn increased notably since the economy opened, while it seems to decrease in the same time as the absolute poverty line is chosen to indentify poverty, because economic growth arisen by openness has increased income level of the urban poor effectively, but inequality of income distribution has reduced the poverty alleviation effect induced by growth. Moreover, the urban poverty presents concentrative that the poor are mostly the unemployed and the unhealthy people, and the poor gather in certain areas and industries. Therefore, economic growth and inequality of income distribution are the macro causes of the urban poverty, as well as the poor people’s quality differences and employments as micro causes.Section II (Chapter 3) analyses the impact of economic openness on the urban poverty through the transmission mechanism of growth inequality–poverty channel, and discovers the“threshold effect”. At first, the linkage of the openness and the growth is tested by the way of co-integration analysis, and it demonstrates that the openness is good for economic growth in China, but the impacts are different from regions. Then, the paper analyses the linkage of the openness and the inequality, which shows that openness induces the income divergence between the industries and the areas. Because that on one hand, the openness promotes economic growth, and on the other hand, it worsens the inequality, whether the openness affects the urban poverty depends on the interaction between the economic growth and the inequality. Therefore, it is found out that although the economic growth alleviated the urban poverty to a great extent, the worsened inequality blocked the anti-poverty effects of the economic growth. Thus, the impact of the economic growth upon the urban poverty is of uncertainty, which is influenced by the opening degree. In other words, the“threshold effect”exists, which is tested from following three respects. (1) The co-integration analysis for the national data reveals that trade liberalization goes against the urban poverty while FDI favors the urban poverty. On the whole, openness is good for urban poverty reduction, which is influenced by the opening degree. (2) The co-integration analysis for the provincial data confirms that opening degree does really affect the results. In some provinces with higher opening degree, the openness will reduce the urban poverty distinctly, while in the other provinces with lower opening degree, the openness will block the urban poverty reduction. (3) The econometric regression with provincial panel data makes sure that the“threshold effect” does really exist. Only if the opening degree gets across the“threshold value”, the economic growth will alleviate the urban poverty.Section III (Chapter 4) analyses the transmission mechanisms of the employment channel and the price fluctuation channel.First, the effects of openness on the employment are two-faced. The poor people’s conditions will be improved due to the raising employments promoted by the openness. However, the living conditions of the poor people who work in import sectors and the sectors affected by FDI crowding-out effects will be worsened. Second, the impact of the price fluctuation is also two-faced. Price level will increase by opening. Accordingly, whether the poor people, as consumer, actually gain or lose from openness depends on whether or not they are net buyer of tradable goods. Third, the other channels, as the technology channel, the factor mobility channel, the vulnerability channel and the institutions channel, are also uncertain. Some poor people become winner and the others become loser.The most remarkable difference of this dissertation is that the problem of urban poverty is discussed as viewed from the openness, in which the impact of economic openness on the urban poverty is analysed through the growth inequality-poverty channel, the employment channal and the price fluctuation channel. It is found out that there has been“threshold effect”in the linkage of economic openness and the urban poverty. As a result, the government should exert the advantageous influence of economic openness on the urban poverty in the East, and reduce the inequality in the West. In addition, the impact of economic openness on the urban poverty is uncertain through the employment and price fluctuation channels, which suggests the government to restrain these uncertainties to alleviate the disadvantage impacts.更多还原