【作者】 王波；

【导师】 张洪江；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 水土保持与荒漠化防治， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 三峡工程是一项影响深远的水利水电工程,其建设及后期蓄水给库区生态环境带来了诸多不可避免的影响,为世人所关注。对此,本研究依据影响库区生态环境因子的实际特点,在收集研究数据资料(1998～2007)的基础上,采用影响定性与定量评价相结合、分析与现状评价相结合的研究方法,对三峡工程兴建及蓄水前后,库区生态环境质量的影响分析研究。对选取局地气候(气温、相对湿度、风速、降水量、蒸发量、雾日数)、土地利用变化、水土流失、库区动植物多样性、水文泥沙及水质(高锰酸钾指数、总氮、总磷、氨氮、挥发酚、石油类、重金属Pb和Hg含量)等指标,进行了以对比分析和生态承载力分析相结合的影响分析。在此基础上,对库区生态环境现状采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)和模糊综合评价法(FuzzyComprehensive Evaluation)分别进行了独立评价,并就评价结果进行了相互验证。最后,还对库区生态环境影响作短期(2008～2012)人工神经网络预测分析。基于上述研究内容与研究方法,研究得到了以下一些结论,并希望能够为三峡工程对库区生态环境的影响做以解释,也为今后库区生态环境建设和保护工作提供一定的理论及评价技术体系指导:(1)通过对影响生态环境各项指标因子的分析,研究发现三峡工程的建设对于库区生态环境的确带来了不可避免的影响。其不仅表现为对库区陆生及水生生物多样性、局地气候、土地利用变化及水文泥沙等的直接影响,而且还间接地对水土流失、生态承载力及水质等产生影响,通过人为保障工程的正常运行而进行的生态环境治理,正在改善库区的生态环境现状,以减小三峡工程对库区的影响。(2)目前,三峡工程对库区影响主要反映在以下几个方面:正向影响主要有:水生生物多样性得到了丰富,库区水土流失得到了有效控制,径流变化幅度及泥沙含量逐渐减小,干流水质有所改善等;负向影响主要包括:陆生生态系统、鱼类资源、库区生态承载力、支流水质等都出现了一定程度的衰退、减少和恶化。影响较小的主要有:动物则只改变了其生境及活动范围、库区土地利用的基本格局。此外,三峡工程的建设,从根本上更改了库区的立地条件,从而较为深远的影响了库区局地气候发生着变化。主要局地气候因子中,气温、相对湿度、风速、降水量及雾日都有所下降,而蒸发量有所上升,局地气候表现为河流向湖库型转变的趋势。(3)采用层次分析-模糊评价法分别对2000年与2007年三峡库区生态环境现状进行评价,结果表明:库区生态环境受工程建设的影响不显著,而且2007年库区生态环境现状有所恢复。其中以AHP法所计算出的2007年与2000年库区生态环境现状比为1.034,2000年与2007年三峡库区生态环境模糊综合评价值等级分别为2.501和2.337。因此两种方法都表明库区生态环境状况相接近,而且2007年生态环境状况有所恢复。但对局部因素仍然存在不同程度的影响,主要表现在2007年局地气候、水土流失、陆地生物多样性、水文和水质综合评价值与2000年相比,呈降低的变化趋势;土地利用与水生生物多样性的综合评价值均呈增加的变化趋势。此外,采用两种评价方法交互式验证,避免了一种方法所可能造成的误差,具有较高的可行性、可信性和准确性。(4)通过神经网络方法,对13个影响三峡库区生态环境因子的短期预测(2008～2012)结果表明:对包含局地气候、耕地、水文泥沙、水质及库区人口等在内的在保持现有生态环境治理和保护措施下,库区生态环境所受影响正在逐渐减弱,库区生态环境系统正在逐步恢复。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Three Gorges Project(TGP) is a far-reaching impact of hydraulic and hydropower project. Eco-environment of the reservoir area will be inevitably brought about a lot of the impact by the project construction and its water storage.It is very concerned about these issues.In this study,based on the characteristics of eco-environmental factors and the collection of data of the study(1998～2007),it was used the comprehensive qualitative & quantitative evaluation methods to be combined with influence analysis & present situation evaluation.By this method,the quality of the eco-environment of three gorges reservoir area was be assessed about before and after TGP construction.Specifically,a impact analysis was firstly done by a comparative analysis and ecological carrying capacity analysis for the indicators,such as the local climate(temperature,relative humidity,wind speed, precipitation,evaporation,fog days),land-use change,soil erosion,animal and plant diversity in the reservoir area,hydrologic and sediment and water(potassium permanganate index,total nitrogen,total phosphorus,ammonia nitrogen,volatile phenol,oil pollutant,heavy metals content of Pb and Hg),et al. And then present situation evaluation of the eco-environment of three gorges reservoir area was be assessed by combined with analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which had independently done the evaluation and then mutually verified the evaluation results.Finally, a short-term prediction and analysis on the eco-environmental impact was carried on for 2008～2012.Based on these methods,the study had come to some of the following conclusions.And it was wished to not only explain the impact to the three gorges reservoir area by TGP,but also give some advice on the theoretical basis and evaluation of technical system guidance for the eco-environment construction and protection in the future of the three gorges reservoir area.(1) By the analysis of the indicators about the impact of the eco-environment,the study found that the construction of TGP has brought indeed unavoidable impact on the reservoir area for the ecological environment.The impact shows for not only in the reservoir area for terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity, local climate,land-use structure,hydrologic and sediment,such as the direct impact,but also indirectly on soil erosion,ecological carrying capacity,water quality.Through man-made eco-environmental governance,the ecological state of the environment is improving,and the impact of the reservoir area by TGP has been reduced in the minimum.(2) At present,it is mainly seen in the following aspects for the eco-environmental impacts of the three gorges reservoir area by TGP:Positive impacts are included that aquatic biodiversity has been enriched,soil erosion of the reservoir area have been effectively controlled,sediment content and runoff range are gradually decreasing,and water quality of main stream is being improved.Negative impacts are included that terrestrial ecosystems,fish stocks,ecological carrying capacity and tributary water quality in the reservoir area had been becoming a degree of recession,reduction and deterioration.Less impact is included that animal habitats and its scope of activities are only changed but their number seldom changed,and it is same as the change of the reservoir area of the basic pattern of land use.In addition,the construction of TGP fundamentally changed the site conditions in the reservoir area, which has more far-reaching impact on the local climate in this area.In the main factor of the local climate,air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,precipitation and fog have been on decline, while evaporation has increased.It appeared a transformed trend to the local climate that it is being changed from the rivers type to lake one,gradually.(3) By using of AHP and fuzzy evaluation method to independent evaluation 2000’s and 2007’s eco-environment quality,it was showed that the eco-environment impact of the three gorges reservoir was weak and not obvious,while it was better in 2007 than 2000.By AHP method,the eco-environment ratio was 1.034 for 2007 to 2000.The value of comprehensive evaluation by fuzzy evaluation was close in 2000 and in 2007,which was 2.501 in 2000 and 2.337 in 2007.In addition,the assessment used the method of two types of models combined with independent evaluation and interactive verification, which could avoid some errors compared with one method’s evaluation.It has higher feasibility, credibility and accuracy.(4) According to the short-term forecasts(2008～2012) on the impact of the 13 eco-environmental factors of the three gorges reservoir,including the local climate,arable land,hydrologic and sediment, water quality and the population in the reservoir area,et al.,through the neural network method,it was showed that with maintenance for the measures to the eco-environment management and protection,the eco-environment impact to the reservoir area by TGP has being gradually weakened,and eco-system of the reservoir area has being gradually restored.更多还原