【作者】 孔令洋；

【导师】 施仲衡； 梁青槐；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 城市轨道工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 城市轨道交通系统型式的选择决策,对实现系统的功能定位和服务目标、提高运行效率和运营效益、节约工程造价和资源能源消耗、促进我国城市轨道交通健康快速发展起到至关重要的作用。然而,现阶段由于没有科学的、系统化的系统型式选择决策理论方法作指导,容易造成线路功能和客运服务目标不明确、运输能力与客流量不适应、服务水平与客流需求不适应等问题。因此,从城市轨道交通系统服务需求和功能规划的角度,开展如何选择功能定位合理、服务水平匹配的系统型式的研究,具有重要的现实意义。本文结合我国城市轨道交通的发展现状,分析我国城市的基础情况和特征,对系统型式选择问题的理论和方法开展了探索性研究。研究期望得出一套系统化的城市轨道交通选型决策的理论和方法体系,明确在不同城市特征、不同交通需求条件下城市轨道交通规划线网及网中各条线路应有的功能定位、服务水平和性能标准,并选择与之相适应的系统型式,以满足城市发展和城市交通的要求,实现规划线网的交通服务功能目标,合理控制建设标准、建设规模和工程投资,辅助各城市进行城市轨道交通的规划决策,并为国家管理决策部门的决策管理提供依据,保障我国城市轨道交通的可持续发展。本文主要开展了以下几个方面的研究工作。1.研究了城市轨道交通选型决策的层次关系。研究认为,城市总体规划、城市自然地理特征、城市人口规模、城市空间结构与土地利用、城市居民出行习惯、城市交通特征等相关问题是城市轨道交通线网规划及选型决策的前提条件。将线网规划中基于城市基本特征、城市交通需求、系统功能需求的城市轨道交通选型问题,分解为宏观层次上的轨道交通模式、中间层次上的系统型式和微观层次上的车辆制式三个层次。2.研究了“轨道交通模式—系统型式—车辆制式”三级选型理论体系。基于城市轨道交通选型的层次划分和线网规划阶段选型工作的目标、内容,提出了“轨道交通模式—系统型式—车辆制式”三级选型理论体系,即分别在宏观、中间、微观层面上,从功能实现、提高效率和资源节约的角度研究轨道交通模式、系统型式、车辆制式的选择,分别进行上位、中位、下位的选型决策。分析了三级选型理论的基本概念、核心理念、从属关系等问题,提出了城市轨道交通选型优化模型。3.研究了系统型式选择的判别依据:即系统型式的分类、特征及适用条件。从功能性能、应用范围、技术特点等方面将系统型式综合划分为地铁系统、轻轨系统、市域快线系统、市郊铁路系统、有轨电车系统和特殊专用系统(包括索轨交通、AGT等低运量系统)6种类型,研究分析了各种系统型式的优缺点、技术特征、适用条件和发展趋势等等,作为后续系统型式选择的判别依据。4.研究了基于轨道交通模式的系统型式选择方法(逻辑推理方法)。研究了基于城市人口规模、城市地理及空间结构特征、城市交通特征、城市交通发展战略等确定轨道交通模式,进而选择系统型式的理念,提出了基于轨道交通模式的系统型式选择方法。结合国家对建设“低耗资、高效益”、资源节约型城市轨道交通的要求,基于我国城市的特征和交通发展状况,归纳提出了我国城市确定轨道交通模式、选择系统型式的一般性建议。5.研究了系统型式选择多因素多方案综合决策模型(综合决策方法)。研究提出了“层次分析—熵—灰色关联度综合决策模型”。在已知线路部分功能、性能要求等定量指标数据的情况下,提供了一种定性定量相结合的多因素多方案综合决策方法,可充分利用白色信息和专家咨询作用,辅助进行更加精确的系统型式选择决策。6.引入判别分析法辅助分析系统型式选择(聚类分析方法)。以地铁系统为例,引入距离判别分析法,利用既有城市的系统型式选择应用经验,辅助分析城市的系统型式选择决策;应用逐步判别分析法,分析影响系统型式选择的城市基础数据指标的重要性权重,指出“市区GDP、市区财政可支配收入、市区总人口、市区常规公交客运总量、市区建成区面积”是最重要的5个指标因素。对我国地铁建设项目的审批指标和标准提出了修改建议。7.开展了实例研究。以上海市轨道交通远景规划线网的系统型式选择和上海11号线南段工程的系统型式选择为例,应用本文研究提出的系统型式选择方法,进行了使用示例。实例研究表明,本文提出的系统型式选择理论和方法,能够正确指导我国城市进行系统型式选择的相关决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The selection and decision-making of urban rail transit system(URT) Category play a crucial role for the realization of system function and service goals,the improvement of running efficiency and operational benefits,the saving of cost and energy consumption,and the prosperous development of URT.However,lacking scientific and systematic methods of URT-Category selection often results in many problems,such as indefinite objective of the line and passenger service,unsuitable situation between transport capacity and passenger traffic volume,unsuitable situation between service level and passenger traffic demand.Therefore,determining how to choose proper URT-Category is instrumental in service demands and function planning of URT.The objective of this study is to analyze the theory of URT-Category selection,and find systemic URT-Category decision-making methods.These theories and methods can help us to define proper functional localization,service level and standard of performance for different characters of cities and different conditions of traffic demand, so that to select reasonable URT-Category.The main research works are as follows.1.Decision-making arrangement of URT system.The selection of URT category is concerned with city conditions,city traffic demands and system functional requirements. It includes three levels:firstly,URT-Transportation-Mode in macro-level;secondly, URT-Category in middle-level;thirdly,URT-Vehicle-Type in micro-level.2.The "URT Transportation Mode-URT Category-URT Vehicle Type" three-level theoretical system.Based on the URT decision-making arrangement,the "URT Transportation Mode-URT Category-URT Vehicle Type" three-level theoretical system is put forward in this thesis.In order to realizing suitable function, advancing efficiency and saving resources of URT system,city should separately make high-level,middle-level and low-level decision to select URT Transportation Mode, URT Category and URT Vehicle Type.3.The classification,character and applicability of different URT-Category.At the view of functionality,performance,range of application and technique features, URT-Category is divided into six categories:Metro System,Light Rail Transit(LRT) System,District Express Rail System,Suburban Railway System,Streetcar System and New Type Rail System.The advantages,disadvantages,technique features,scope of application and developing trend of each URT-Category are also discussed.4.An URT-Category selection method depending on URT-Transportation-Mode. The idea that URT-Category is determined by URT-Transportation-Mode is basic to an excellent URT-Category selection method depending on URT-Transportation-Mode. For the construction of "low cost,high efficiency" and resources saving URT system, some suggestions of URT-Transportation-Mode decision and URT-Category selection are concluded.5.An integrated decision-making model of URT-Category selection.The integrated decision-making model with AHP-entropy-grey relation grade is an important method of URT-Category selection.When we know some data of function or performance demand,the integrated decision-making model can realize quantitative calculation to make accurate decision of URT-Category selection.6.Discriminant Analysis Method is used to select URT-Category.The Distance Discriminant Analysis Method can make use of the application experience of former cities,to help other cities to select their URT-Category.Taking metro system for example,the Stepwise Discriminant Analysis Method is used to assess weight of examine and approve indexes.The result indicates,that the Gross Domestic Products (GDP),the financial disposable revenue,the total population,the conventional bus transit and the built-up area is the most important basic indexes of metro system selection in Chinese cities.7.A case study.For an application demonstration,the URT-Category selection of Shanghai rail transit planning network and Line 11 Southern subsection is studied by the methods raised in this thesis.The case study shows that all the methods of URT-Category selection can help cities to make proper decision.更多还原