【作者】 田志勇；

【导师】 关忠良；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 根据因素分解公式,单位GDP能耗受到产业结构和各产业的单位增加值能耗的影响;根据国内外经验,单位GDP能耗和各产业单位增加值能耗又受到能源消费结构的影响。因而单位GDP能耗受到了产业结构和能源消费结构这双重结构的影响,基于这一思路,论文着重定量研究双重结构对单位GDP能耗的影响,并对历来颇受诟病的中国能源消费结构进行合理性判断研究。论文在分析相关研究文献的基础上,归纳出因素分解分析的框架流程,并应用于产业结构对单位GDP能耗的定量影响研究。利用LMDII分解方法对单位GDP能耗从6类产业分解角度进行实证分析,对工业从9大类行业和39类行业两种分解角度实证研究行业结构对工业单位增加值能耗的影响,从总体到各分项对计算结果进行较为全面地分析。同时,还根据对工业两种分解的计算结果实证分析了计算结构影响与分解粒度的关系。由于产业结构影响研究的局限性,论文将基于经济能源单耗指标体系的产业结构扩展到基于经济和物理能源单耗指标体系、以能源消费活动为基础的结构对单位GDP能耗影响的研究。深入分析该研究的基础——综合经济和物理能源单耗指标体系的金字塔结构,研究了该体系的指标内涵以及各层次间指标的逻辑关系。建立基于能源消费活动的单位GDP能耗分解公式,详细分析了其逻辑关系和实际意义,从理论上研究了两种用于该分解应用的计算方法——分部门计算法和两阶段估算法。论文对双重结构的另一端——能源消费结构对单位GDP能耗的影响进行研究,并深入分析了能源消费结构的发展规律及其定量评价问题。构建了能源消费结构与单位GDP能耗的多元回归模型,根据回归结果分析能源消费结构对单位GDP能耗的定量影响。由于能源消费结构发展规律的复杂性,论文又利用熵理论研究考虑影响因素的能源消费结构理想状态,在此基础上,引入能源消费结构信息熵的概念和计算方法,构建了均衡度和优势度等指标对能源消费结构合理性进行定量评价,实证表明该方法能够做出较为客观的定量判断。论文还分析了可再生能源与单位GDP能耗关系的六种情景,研究利用可再生能源优化能源消费结构的模式,提出其对优化能源消费结构的作用、方式和措施。论文根据因素分解思想,建立综合双重结构的单位GDP能耗分解公式,同时计算双重结构对单位GDP能耗的影响,并利用LMDI I分解方法进行实证研究。结论是产业结构的影响要远大于能源消费结构的影响,虽然总体上能源消费结构对单位GDP能耗的影响非常小,但通过对具体分项的分析发现,一些产业具体品种能源消费比例变化所起的作用很大,且对具体分项值的分析有助于把握各类能源消费比例变化对单位GDP能耗的影响机制。由于双重结构的重要意义,论文根据分解原则利用几何平均数思想构建结构单位GDP能耗和结构能源系数两指标,对基于单位GDP能耗的双重结构协调度进行评价,通过实证分析发现中国双重结构虽向协调方向发展但目前协调度仍较低、有较大的优化空间,并根据实证分析提出相应建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Energy consumption per unit GDP(ECPUGDP) is affected by industry structure and energy intensity of each industry by its calculation formula.It is affected by energy consumption structure(ECS) by world experiences.So,ECFUGDF is affected by dual-structure,industry and energy consumption structure.Based on that,the paper does research on the impact of dual-structure on ECPUGDF and on evaluation of China ECS being underestimated.Based on much literature of decomposition analysis(DA),the paper researches the framework of DA,and applies it to the study of industry structure affecting ECPUGDP. It decomposes ECPUGDP from six industries,and it also decomposes industry from nine and thirty-nine types.By demonstration,it has analyzes the results from total and each subentries in detail.It also compares the calculation results of two decompositions in industry to reveal the relationship between structural effect calculation and decomposition level.Since the limitation of industry structure research,the paper studies the energy consumption activity structure effects on ECPUGDP based on economic and physical energy intensity indicators from the study of industry structure based on economic energy intensity indicators.It analyzes the foundation of this research,the Pyramidal structure of the integration of economic and physical energy intensity indicator,and studies the indicator and their logistic relationship in the system.The paper creates decomposition formula base on energy consumption activity,and analyzes its logic and reality meaning.It studies two calculation methods applying to that decomposition, calculation according to department and two-phase calculation.As for ECS,the other of the dual-structure,the paper researches its effect on ECPUGDP,its development rule and optimization.It designs regression model to analyze the relationship between ECS and ECPUGDP,and it calculates the value of impact of ECS on ECPUGDP by the regression simulation result.As ECS has its own development rule,the paper analyzes the ideal state taking influential factors of ECS by entropy theory.Then,it introduces the information entropy conception and its calculation formula of ECS,and designs the indicators of equilibrium and dominance degree to give objective judgment of ECS.By this method,the paper also gives a simple demonstration,and it proves the valid of the method by analyzing the demonstration result.Then,the paper studies renewable energy,six relationships between it and ECPUGDP,and its functions,ways and measures to optimize ECS.There is no a quantitative model to calculate both structures effects.According to DA,the paper builds the decomposition formula of ECPUGDP to calculate dual-structure effect.LMDI I was used in the demonstration to calculate the impact of dual-structure on ECPUGDP.The result is that the impact of industry structure on ECPUGDP is much larger than ECS.By analyzing particular items,it finds that in some industry,some kinds of energy’s effects are large.So,it is helpful to master the mode of each type of energy’s effect on ECPUGDP by analyzing every item.As the important meaning of dual-structure,the paper designs structural ECPUGDP and structural energy coefficient indicator by geometric mean to measure the harmony degree of dual-structure.By demonstration,it finds that China dual-structure harmony has evolved but the degree is still low.According the analyses,the paper puts forward some advices to optimize ECS.更多还原