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基于科学发展观的经济评价研究及应用

The Research and Applications of Economic Evaluation Based on Scientific Outlook on Development

【作者】 符林

【导师】 迟国泰;

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 , 管理科学与工程, 2009, 博士

【摘要】 落实科学发展观的一个重要方面,就是建立体现科学发展观要求的经济评价体系。经济发展是社会进步和人的全面发展的物质基础和前提条件,构建符合科学发展观要求的经济评价指标体系,必须反映“以人为本”的科学发展观的核心,反映“全面、协调、可持续”的科学发展观的内涵。本论文共分六章。第一章绪论。第二章基于科学发展观的经济评价指标体系构建。第三章基于组合赋权的经济评价模型及对中国十五期间的实证研究。第四章基于次约束的经济评价模型及对副省级城市的实证研究。第五章基于循环修正思路的经济评价模型及对省级行政区的实证研究。第六章是结论与展望。论文的主要工作如下:(1)通过多重组合分析筛选指标建立了反映科学发展观内涵的经济评价指标体系.以国际权威机构经典观点的高频指标为基础;用人均准绿色GDP等指标反映以人为本的科学发展观的核心,用全社会劳动生产率等指标反映又好又快的科学发展观的本质,用万元GDP综合能耗等指标反映全面协调可持续的科学发展观的内涵:通过“定性分析+关联分析+偏相关分析+变异系数分析+理性分析”的多重组合分析方法筛选指标,构建了基于科学发展观的经济评价指标体系。(2)通过依次引入不同的次约束条件建立评价模型揭示了影响不同副省级城市经济发展的关键因素.通过以每个指标作为次约束条件的评价排序与无次约束条件的评价排序的差别,找出导致评价排序发生变化的关键指标,揭示了影响不同副省级城市经济发展的主要因素,解决了影响经济发展的关键要素的确定问题,改变了现有经济评价研究仅仅立足于排序、无法区分影响评价对象关键因素的现状,为有针对性地采取对策提供了必要条件。(3)利用循环修正的组合评价思路保证了不同评价方法对同一个省级行政区经济评价结果的一致性。针对不同的单一评价方法得到的不同评价结果,通过利用平均值法、Board法和Compland法等三种组合方法对单一评价方法的排名得分进行组合修正,保证了用不同评价方法对同一个省级行政区经济评价结果的一致性,解决不同单一方法的评价结果相互矛盾的问题。

【Abstract】 The important aspect of the implementing scientific outlook on development is to establish economic development evaluation system that reflects the requirements of scientific outlook on development.Its design must reflect the core of scientific outlook on development meaning putting people first and the human-oriented,comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development.The paper is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.The second chapter expounds the construction of the index system of the overall economic evaluation based on the scientific outlook on development.The third chapter introduces the economic evaluation model based on the combination weighting and its empirical research during the "the 10th five-year plan period".The forth chapter discusses the economic evaluation model based on the inferior constraint and the empirical research of sub-provincial cities.The fifth chapter introduces the economic evaluation model based on circling modification and the empirical research of 14 provincial administrative regions.In the sixth chapter come the conclusion and the prospects.The major work of this paper is as follows:(1) This paper screens indicators based the multiple portfolio analysis and constructs economic development evaluation system that reflects the requirements of scientific outlook on development.Based the high frequency which have occurred in the typical documents from the international authorities,the per capita green GDP and so on reflecting the core of the human-oriented scientific outlook on development,the labor productivity of the whole society and so on reflecting the connotation of the good and fast scientific outlook on development,ten-thousand-yuan GDP general energy consumption and so on reflecting the sustainable development of economy,this paper screens indicators based the multiple portfolio analysis that include qualitative analysis,correlation analysis,partial correlation analysis,coefficient of variation analysis and rational analysis.And the economic development evaluation system that reflects the requirements of scientific outlook on development is established. (2) Through taking different inferior constrain in turn,this paper establishes the evaluation model and finds the key factors that reflect the economic development of different sub-provincial city.According to the difference of the result of evaluation between inferior constrain and un-inferior constrain,the key indexes that reflect the result of evaluation are found out.It reveals the key factors that reflect the economic development of different sub-provincial city.It changes the existing situation of economic evaluation that only studies the ordering of result and does not find the key factors impacting evaluation objects.And it provides the prerequisite to take targeted measures.(3) According to the combination evaluation of cycling modification,we ensure that gets the consistent result with different evaluation method to evaluate the same province.For getting different evaluation result with different single evaluation method,the ranking scores of single method are modified with medium value method,Board method and Compland method.It ensures that gets the consistent result with different evaluation method to evaluate the same province and resolves the issue that gets the conflicting conclusion with different single evaluation method.

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