【作者】 张广斌；

【导师】 李腊生；

【作者基本信息】 天津财经大学 ， 统计学， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 关于汇率制度选择的争论,源于金属本位退出历史舞台和信用货币兴起时期。进入布雷顿森林体系以后,钉住美元的固定汇率制度处于绝对优势地位,但随着美元地位的逐渐走弱,选择浮动汇率制度的呼声日趋高涨,对于汇率制度选择的大争论拉开了帷幕。布雷顿森林体系下的世界货币体系蕴含了浮动汇率制度取代固定汇率制度的冲动。固定汇率制度的拥护者处于防守地位,浮动汇率制度的拥护者处于攻击态势。当时的历史条件决定了在进行汇率制度选择争论时,更多地是从宏观经济变量和汇率制度外生的角度进行考虑。同时,布雷顿森林体系下的汇率制度争论大多是在发达国家的经济学家之间展开,经济学家们的观点难免会染上本国主流学派的观点,并潜意识中以卷入争论的经济学家们所在国家作为分析汇率制度选择的蓝本。这样,一方面导致了对发展中国家汇率制度选择的忽略,另一方面,由于发达国家的经济结构相似,无论是“长期”还是“短期”,对他们进行汇率制度选择的影响都不大,对汇率制度选择“期限”的忽略也就在所难免。进入牙买加体系以后,无一例外地,发达市场经济国家选择了浮动汇率制度,而绝大多数发展中国家则选择了钉住式的固定汇率制度、中间汇率制度、有管理的浮动汇率制度,或者干脆放弃本国货币,直接以某一发达国家的货币作为本国货币。1997年亚洲金融危机以后,相继兴起了“原罪论”和“害怕浮动论”,“原罪论”将发展中国家之所以实行固定汇率制度归因于发展中国家对“货币错配”和“期限错配”进行“原罪”的结果;“害怕浮动论”则认为发展中国家之所以选择固定汇率制度是对“荷兰病”的恐惧和政府公信力的缺失。与其说“原罪论”和“害怕浮动论”是对发展中国家选择固定汇率制度原因的寻找,毋宁说是对发展中国家选择固定汇率制度既成现实的谴责。不可否认,现有的主流汇率制度选择理论应用于发展中国家,存在着诸多的不公平之处。集中到一点,现有的主流汇率制度选择理论的局限性主要表现在对各国发展程度不同的忽略,忽略了发展程度差异,实际上就是忽略了影响发展中国家汇率制度选择的最主要因素。各国之间发展程度差异可以通过产业结构的差异得到体现。同时,由于经济发展程度差异在概念上的抽象性,运用产业结构差异对汇率制度选择进行分析成为可能。运用Logistic二元离散被解释变量计量经济学模型对产业结构和汇率制度进行回归分析以后,本文得出:汇率制度选择与产业结构之间高度相关,产业结构高度越高的国家越倾向于选择自由浮动汇率制度,产业结构高度越低的国家越倾向于选择非自由浮动的汇率制度。然而,尽管通过Logistic回归分析得出汇率制度选择与产业结构高度之间存在高度相关,但其内在机理何在呢?根据内生经济增长理论、罗斯托对于主导产业和产业结构之间关系的论述和统计分析,我们认为:经济增长、产业结构变迁和主导产业更替都是由技术进步所内生决定,产业结构高度的提升离不开主导产业的更替。根据弗农的“产品循环说”和赤松要的“雁行产业发展形态说”,主导产业更替在世界范围内遵循了由发达国家向次发达国家再向发展中国家的转移过程。比较优势理论、特定要素模型、要素比例理论和规模经济理论是现有的解释一国对外贸易结构的主要理论,从静态时点上解释贸易结构,所隐含的意义是:进出口商品是特定要素和要素禀赋的载体,一个国家实际上是在输出和引进特定要素和要素禀赋。雁行产业发展形态说和产品循环说是连接主导产业转移和进出口结构的主要理论,从动态时间上解释贸易结构问题。将相对静态的特定要素和动态的主导产业转移相融合,揭示出发展中国家与发达国家在进出口商品上的互补性。同时,发展中国家的出口商品在发达国家市场上面对的应该是一个完全竞争或近似于完全竞争的市场。而发达国家的出口商品在发展中国家面对的应该是一个完全垄断、近似完全垄断或者垄断竞争的市场。这种进出口商品的市场格局对发展中国家的出口商和政府都有着不可消除的影响,从而,这种影响就必然反映在对汇率制度选择的态度上。以产业结构为出发点分析汇率制度选择,实际上就是从实体经济角度来考虑汇率制度选择问题,这直接导致了对一国金融部门的忽略。在汇率制度选择的路径选择上,对一国金融部门的忽略等同于对资本与金融账户的忽略。对于发展中国家来说,在资本与金融账户没有开放的条件下,毫无疑问,汇率制度的选择取决于经常账户的影响,也就是实体经济的影响;在资本与金融账户已经开放的条件下,由于本位货币不可能作为世界货币和预算约束的存在,在较长时期内,资本与金融账户的余额受制于经常账户余额。在汇率制度选择过程中,资本与金融账户处于从属地位,经常账户处于主导地位。在做了假设条件以后,假定世界上只存在两个极端国家,一个是处于发展初期的国家,一个是极端发达的国家。通过对发展中国家进出口产品结构的分析,可以得出:发展中国家更倾向于选择管理多于浮动的非自由浮动的汇率制度,发展中国家由非自由浮动汇率制度向自由浮动汇率制度转换的时间进程由产业结构高度差距的缩小进程所决定。在一国范围内,正是由于技术进步导致了主导产业的更替,反过来,主导产业的更替又促进了技术进步。主导产业更替促进了产业结构变迁,产业结构变迁又加快了主导产业更替。同时,主导产业更替影响了一国的进出口结构,而进出口结构又影响了汇率制度选择。那么,产业结构变迁和汇率制度选择之间的高度相关性就得到了解释,汇率制度之间转换的“拐点”不应该是一个确定的“点”,而是一个长期的平滑过程。从我国汇率制度发展变迁的历史过程中也可以看出,我国一直处在效率与稳定之间的两难选择。在我国的汇率制度选择过程中应该考虑产业结构和汇率制度之间的适配性问题。通过对我国主导产业的分析,引申出我国出口产品在发达市场国家中的竞争性地位和发达国家对我国进口产品在我国市场上的近似垄断性的地位,那么,我国在汇率制度选择上,理应实行非自由浮动的汇率制度,而且这是一个长期策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 The debate on the choice of the exchange rate system turned up since from the disappearation of the metal-based system and appearance of the currency credit.After the Bretton Woods system,a fixed exchange rate system,pegged to the dollar,is absolutely in a dominant position.But with the gradual weakening of the dollar,there is a tendency to the floating exchange rate system,which leading to the exchange rate system debate.The world monetary system,under the Bretton Woods system,contains an impulse that the floating exchange rate system will replace the fixed exchange rate system.Advocates of a fixed exchange rate system are in a defensive position as an advocate for floating exchange rate system is in the attack situation.At that time,the historical condition is considered much more from macro-economic variables and the exogenous of exchange rate system in the choice of exchange rate system.At the same time,the exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system is the most controversial in the developed countries,which the economists’ viewpoints of these countries will inevitably be affected by the mainstream scholar’s,and regard the countries mentioned above as the argument’s example in the subconscious.In this way, on the one hand,it will led to an ignorance of the selection of the the exchange rate system in developing countries;on the other hand,because of the economic structure is similar to that of developed countries,whether it is "long-term" or "short-term," there is not a strong impact as to their choice of exchange rate system.So it is inevitable to ignore the "period" of the choice of exchange rate system.After the Jamaica system,without exception,developed market economy countries opted for a floating exchange rate system,and the vast majority of developing countries are pegged to choose a fixed exchange rate system,middle exchange rate system,and managed floating exchange rate system,or simply give up their national currencies,and directly choose the currency of a developed country as their national currency.After the Asian financial crisis in 1997,the "original sin" and "fear of floating" theory turned up."Original sin" theory thought that the "Original sin" would be the reason of the "currency mismatch" and "period Mismatch in developing countries for their choices of floating exchange rate system.But the "fear of floating "thought that,in developing countries,chose a fixed exchange rate system are the fear of "Dutch disease" and lacking of credibility of the government.Instead of saying "original sin" and "fear of floating" are explanations of the choice of developing countries;it is more like a condemnation to developing countries.There is no denying that the mainstream choice theory of the current exchange rate system applying to developing countries has a lot of unfairness.Focus on the point,the major limitations of system choose which is the mainstream of the current exchange rate system is the neglect of the varying development levels,in fact,that is the most important element when the developing countries are choosing their exchange rate system.Differences between countries in levels of development can be reflected by the industrial structure.While due to differences in the level of economic development is abstract in the conceptual,it is possible to analysis the choice by the differences of industrial structure.According to the Econometric model—"Logistic be interpreted as discrete binary variable",to give an regression analysis of the industrial structure of the exchange rate system,we can make a conclusion:there is a high correlation between the industrial structure and choice of exchange rate system;the higher industrial structure level a country is,it tends to choose Floating exchange rate system,the lower level it is,non-floating exchange rate system will be more appropriate.However,we make the conclusion according to Logistic regression analysis,but its internal mechanism is it so?According to the endogenous growth theory,analysis on the relationship between leading industries and industrial structure by Rostow,we believe that,Economic growth,changes in industrial structure and leading industries are decided by technological progress,and a high degree of upgrading the industrial structure can not be separated from the Alternating of leading industry.According to Vernon’s "Product Cycle" and Akamatsu to the "Flying Geese Industrial Development Patterns",change in the leading industries around the world followed by process of the developed countries to developing countries to the developed countries.Comparative advantage theory,the specific elements model,the proportion of elements theory and economies of scale theory are the main theories to explain a country’s foreign trade structure,from the Static time point to explain the structure of trade,the implied meaning is:import and export product is the carrier of a particular element and factor endowments,and in fact a country is to output and introduce specific factors and factor endowments.Flying Geese Industrial Development Patterns theory and Product Cycle theory are the main theories to connect the change of leading industries and the import and export structure,which From a dynamic point to explain the trade structure.According to integrate relatively static specific elements and dynamic change of leading industry,it revealed the complementary on the import and export product between developing and developed countries.At the same time,the market that the export product of developing countries faced in the developed markets should be a Perfect competition or similar fully competitive market.However,the market that the export commodities of developed countries faced in the developing countries should be a complete monopoly,nearly monopoly or Monopolistic competition market.Under this conditions,there is an eliminate impact on the exporters and government for developing country,so this influence will inevitable affect the choice of exchange rate.Starting from the industrial structure to analyze the choice of the exchange rate system,in other words,it is the choice of exchange rate system from the point of real economy,which directly led to neglect to the financial sectors.In the path of exchange rate system choice,the neglect of financial sector is equivalent to the neglect of the capital and financial accounts.For developing countries,capital and financial accounts being not opening up,there is no doubt that the choice of exchange rate system depends on the current account,that is,the impact of the real economy;when the capital and financial accounts been opened up,as the existence of the world’s currency-based monetary and budgetary constraints,in a long period of time,capital and financial account balance is constrainted by the current account balance.In the process of Exchange rate system selection,capital and financial account in a subordinate position and the current account is in a dominant position.After making assumptions,it is assumed that there are only two extremes countries in the world,one is in the initial stage of development and another is a extremely developed country.It can be conducted from import and export products structure analysis of developing countries that the developing countries tend to choose non-free floating exchange rate system which there is much more management,and the process in developing country from non- free floating exchange rate system to free floating is decided by a high degree of narrowing the gap between the industrial structure.In one country,technological advances led to the replacement of the leading industries,in turn,which is the change of leading industries led to technical progress. The replacement of leading industries promotes the change of industrial structure,and changes in industrial structure speed up the alternating of leading industries.At the same time,the replacement of leading industries affects the structure of a country’s imports and exports,and import and export structure also affects the choice of exchange rate system.In that case,it can be explained that there is a high degree of correlation between changes in industrial structure and exchange rate system,the "turning point" of changes among exchange rate system should not be defined by a "point",but a long-term and smooth process.From the history course of development and change of exchange rate system,we can see that China has always been in a dilemma,to choose efficiency or stability.So when we make the choice,we should consider the adaptation of industrial structure and exchange rate system.Through analysis of the leading industries in China,we realize that China’s exports was in competitive status in the developed markets of developed countries,and developed country imported products from our ours,similar to the monopolistic status in our market.So it is a long-term strategy to choose Non-floating exchange rate system in our country.更多还原