【作者】 陈飞儿；

【导师】 张仁颐；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 船舶与海洋结构物设计制造， 2008， 博士

【摘要】 集装箱船舶的大型化发展给航运公司提出了更多的营运难题,集疏运系统不再独立于远洋运输网络,而是主要为远洋航线网络服务。由于江、海不同水域集装箱船舶的技术标准不同,江-海集疏运系统是当前水-水集疏运系统中研究的难点所在。近几年,中国集装箱港口发展迅速,特别是上海洋山深水港的建设,对亚洲区域内的集装箱运输格局乃至世界航运市场产生了深远影响,但作为洋山港的主要箱源地--长江下游地区,其港口与洋山港之间的集疏运系统是最复杂的江-海集疏运系统。本文主要为了解决航运公司在江-海集疏运系统中的营运难题,以上海港-长江下游港为实例,其意义重大。为实现以上研究目的,本文主要做了以下方面的工作:(1)从集装箱船舶的营运和技术特征出发,以客观、中立的态度探讨超巴拿马型集装箱船的经济性问题,为当前集装箱航运市场上存在争议的“船舶大型化的规模经济性”提供定性和定量依据;(2)以市场环境和实际数据为基础,基于不同的航线网络模式,对影响超巴拿马型集装箱船经济性的主要因素进行敏感性分析,发现轴辐式(hub-and-spoke)网络模型是伴随集装箱船舶大型化过程中的航线网络发展方向,集疏运系统对超大型集装箱船的经济性影响巨大,这也验证了本文的研究意义重大,案例计算结果为航运公司的营运决策提供了重要参考;(3)建立优化模型,对江-海集疏运系统中的单航线、单船型、多航线、多船型等不同情况进行实例应用,计算的结果可作为航运公司在“船型优化和航线设置”方面的决策支持。在以上内容的研究过程中,文章以“宽度与深度相结合、定性与定量相结合、理论与实践相结合”为指导原则,做了大量的创新工作,主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)验证了轴辐式网络模型下的超巴拿马型集装箱船的经济性。轴辐式网络模型在国外文献中多应用于航空运输,并已经相当成熟;在集装箱海运中仍属于起步,并且争议很大。而在国内,轴辐式网络模型理论的应用几乎属于空白。本文以客观的立场,根据市场营运环境的不同,分析不同航线网络下的超巴拿马型集装箱船的经济性。案例计算结果表明轴辐式网络模型在集装箱船舶大型化趋势下较多港直靠模式(multi-port calling)更能体现大船的经济性。文章对轴辐式网络模型的验证也为该理论在其他领域的应用提供了参考,例如城市规划、路网设计等。(2)建立单位标准集装箱综合营运成本模型,并进行实例验证。以往关于船型选择的文献多从运输成本的角度考虑,而没有综合考虑船舶在港时间对集装箱船经济性的影响,决策常常与实际营运效果偏差很大。本文从集装箱运输“门到门”的角度出发,通过模块化,最终建立了既考虑在港、又考虑在航时间的单位标准集装箱综合营运成本模型,并通过实例进行应用和验证。(3)新角度的敏感性分析。传统的敏感性分析是从影响目标函数最大的因素进行敏感性的详细分析,但超巴拿马型集装箱船舶经济性研究表明,影响目标函数最大的因素--船舶载箱率并不会影响企业决策,而本被认为不敏感的因素--集疏运成本却对企业决策的影响很大。因此,本文选取集疏运成本进行敏感性的详细分析,建立了接驳航线系统与远洋航线网络之间的联系,也解释了在同一经济区域内进行枢纽港选择时,航运公司把集疏运系统作为重要考虑因素的原因。(4)构建江-联运集疏运系统中的动态规划模型,并进行实例验证。动态规划模型在解离散问题中较线性规划模型、Dijkstra算法、矩阵算法等更有优越性;并能同时计算中间过程,即任何两个阶段之间的决策选择。但划分阶段和写出递推关系式是其难点所在,以往的文献因集装箱运输的复杂性,没有找到合适的划分阶段方法,无法利用动态规划模型的优越性。本文借助于单位标准集装箱综合营运成本模型中的模块化方法,对江-海联运问题进行阶段划分,构建动态规划模型,并用实例验证,为解决此类运输问题提供参考。(5)江-海联运集疏运系统的研究在洋山港主要腹地港口群进行应用。在长江下游港口至上海港的江-海联运网络中,江运和海运运距都较短,沿途挂靠港口密集,研究表明,由于港口转运时间过长、装卸费过高等原因,接驳航线网络将向直达航运、减少挂靠港、缩短航线周期、增大船型等方向发展。本文研究经过充分调研,以专业数据库和市场营运为基础,对理论和数学模型进行实例验证,主要有如下结论:(1)通过集装箱船舶实现集装箱化的运输特别适合于长距离、多环节、频中转的货物运输,国际贸易中货物运输的集装箱化仍有进一步提高的趋势,为集装箱运输市场的发展提供了良好的大背景。(2)通过集装箱船的营运技术特点分析,船舶本身的大型化技术不是最关键的难题,但技术条件和经济性是船型选择的根本。在6500 TEU(Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit,20尺标准集装箱)和9500 TEU两种船型、轴辐式网络模型和多港直靠模式两种航线网络下,无论是6500 TEU船型或9500 TEU的集装箱船舶,轴辐式网络模型在大部分营运环境都比多港直靠模式的单位标准集装箱综合营运成本更低。(3)当新造船成本、大船载箱率、船舶在港时间、燃油价格等因素向不利方向变化30%之内时,最优方案都是9500 TEU船型的轴辐式模型。但是集疏运费用增加30%时,最优方案为9500 TEU的多港直靠模型。由于集疏运费用因素对航运公司在选择船型、选择航线模式、选择枢纽港等方面决策的影响更大,本文认为集疏运费用问题应该是航运公司非常关心的问题。支线接驳航线网络与远洋主航线相配套的多层次航线网络结构将会受到航运公司的关注和重视,不同层次网络之间不再独立,经济区域内的航线网络为经济区域间的航线网络服务的特点将会进一步显现。(4)江-海联运集装箱运输是接驳航线中最为复杂和亟需优化的集疏运方式,长江流域南京以下的港口始发的集装箱运至洋山港时,由于江运和海运部分运距都非常短,中转费用和中转时间占总成本比例非常高,航运公司应该选择直达运输,减少航线上的挂靠港口数量,尽可能缩短航次周转时间。(5)在洋山港的主要集疏运港口系统中,经济的江海联运船型将受到航运公司关注。目前的江海直达集装箱船船型总体偏小,航运公司在增加船队运力投入时,应增加400 TEU以上的船型和500 TEU以上的ATB船(Articulated Tug & Barge,铰接式顶推驳船),以获得更低的集疏运成本。文章最后根据研究结论和市场营运情况,提出了航运公司关注但尚待深入研究的课题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The bigger container ships propose more operation problems to the container lines. The distribution system will not be independently with it, but will mainly service for the ocean shipping networks. As the different water areas require different technology specifications of container vessels, the river-sea distribution system is the most puzzled one in the multi-water systems. In recent years, the Chinese ports have been in rapid development, especially the construction of Shanghai Yang Shan port, which puts a lot impact on the Asian shipping industry, even on the world shipping. The main container born areas of Yang Shan port are the ports of down area of Yangzi River, the routes from which to Yang Shan port are river-sea distribution networks. This paper hopes to solve the shipping companies’operation puzzle in the river-sea distribution system. It chooses the Shanghai port and Yangzi River down area ports as an example, which has great practice sense. To reach above purpose, this paper mainly works on the following areas. (1) According to the characteristics of container ships operation and technology, research on the economic viability of post-panamax container ships objectively, and giving some conclusions to the debating topic of economics of scale of larger container ships in theory and approach. (2) Based on the market environment and practice data, it does sensitive analysis of main factors, which impacts post-panamax container ships economic viability much under different shipping networks. It concludes that the hub-and-spoke network will be the main network with the larger container ships, and the distribution system has a great impact on the economic viability of post-panamax container ships, which also proves that this paper has a great theory sense. The conclusions could also service shipping companies for operation decision. (3) Optimization model construction and application in the river-sea distribution system example of Shanghai Port and Yangzi River down area ports under different hypothesis of lonely route, lonely ship size, multi-routes and multi-ship sizes. The results of example application could be decision help for shipping companies in shipping size and routes optimization.According to the guidelines of combination of breadth and depth, quality and quantity, theory and practice, this paper brings forth some new ideas. (1) It improves the economic viability of post-panamax container ships in hub-and-spoke network. The hub-and-spoke network theory applied mainly in airline transport and is comparatively mature, but it is at the start in container shipping and has a lot of debate. In China, this theory applies almost in vain. This paper analyzes the economic viability of post-panamax container ships in different routes networks objectively under different market environments. The example results indicate that the hub-and-spoke network has more advantage than the multi-port calling network for larger ships. The improvement of this theory also helps it apply in other areas, such as cities planning and roads network design. (2) It builds total operation cost model for per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) and applies in example. For the past thesis related to the ship size selection mainly in shipping cost consideration, and not including the cost in port time, the decisions match the practice a little. This paper considers the container shipping in“door to door”model, differentiates the total transportation into several parts, builds the total operation cost model for per TEU including both consideration of on sea and in port, and applies the model in example. (3) It does sensitive analysis from a new vision. The tradition sensitive analysis considers that the factor changing the target most is the most sensitive one and does detail analysis on it. The economic viability of post-panamax container ships here reveals that the loading rate changing the target most but not changes the decision, while the distribution cost changing the target not much but affects the decision a lot. This paper does the later factor detail analysis, which connects close relationship between distribution system and ocean shipping, also explains why shipping companies considering a lot on distribution system when choosing hub port in an economic area. (4) It builds dynamic programming model for typical river-sea distribution system and approves the model in example application. The dynamic programming model has much advantage in disperse problems compared to the linear programming (LP), Dijkstra, matrix decoding and so on, and it displays all the medium processes, the decision between every two stages. However, it is not easy to divide stages and build universal formula. For this difficulty, past research did little work on shipping application. In this paper, the total operation cost model for per TEU helps to divide stages, it builds dynamic programming model for river-sea transportation and approves it by an example application. It supplies an example for such transportation problems. (5) Research of river-sea distribution system applies in Yangshan port and Yangzi River down area ports. In this river-sea transportation network, the distances in river and on sea are both short and the ports along the routes are crowd. Conclusions indicates that for the too long time and too much handle costs at transferring ports, the distribution networks will develop to be more direct routes, less calling ports and larger ship sizes.This research does a lot of investment and bases on specialized database and market operation, applies in example to approve the theory and math models. The main conclusions are as follow. (1) The containerized transportation by container ships is adapt to cargo transportation of long distance, multi-stages, frequent transferring. That the containerized rate in cargo transportation will raise more in international shipping gives a good background for container shipping development. (2) Based on the technology and economic analysis of container ships, the larger ship technology itself is not the key difficult, but the technology and economic viability are the roots of ship size selection. In the example of 6500 TEU and 9500 TEU under hub-and-spoke network and multi-port calling network, the former network has more advantage than the latter one in both ship size, for they have lower total operation cost per TEU in hub-and-spoke network. (3) When the factors of ship newbuilding cost, ship-loading rate, ship time at port and oil cost change in unfavorable direction by less than 30% independently, the best option is 9500 TEU ship size in hub-and-spoke network. However, when the factor of distribution cost adds 30%, the option is 9500 TEU ship size in multi-port calling network. For it affects a lot on the decisions of ship size, routes network and hub port, the distribution cost here considered as an important factor for shipping companies. The multi-layer routes networks of distribution network and ocean shipping network will considered by shipping companies and the network in economic zone will service more for the network between economic zones. (4) The river-sea container transportation is the most complicated distribution system and needs to optimize. In the transportation from Nanjing port or around to the Yangshan port, for the short distances of both river transport and sea shipping, the transferring cost and time occupies high in the total operation cost and time, the shipping companies should choose direct transportation, less calling ports and shorter transport cycle time. (5) In the Yangshan ports system, river-sea ship with economic viability will be welcome by shipping companies. The present ship sizes in operation are too small, and the shipping companies should put more 400 TEU above container ships and 500 TEU above ATBs to reach lower distribution cost.In the last part, according to the research conclusions and market operations, this paper suggests some topics that the shipping companies interested in but needs to do more studies.更多还原