【作者】 程晓勇；

【导师】 曹云华；

【作者基本信息】 暨南大学 ， 国际关系， 2009， 博士

【摘要】 国际核危机是严重威胁国际与地区安全稳定的恶性事态。自冷战结束以来,国际核危机频繁发生,先后爆发了朝鲜核危机、南亚核危机与伊朗核危机,严重影响着国际稳定与地区安全。由于国际核危机对国际社会整体安全带来了巨大威胁,国际核危机当事各方综合运用政治、军事、经济、外交手段对国际核危机进行预防、控制、解决,寻求以和平的方式解决国际核危机,避免核战争。本文以国际核危机、当事各方管理核危机的行为方式、影响国际核危机进程及管理的因素为研究对象。在理论探讨的基础上,对国际核危机进行案例分析,试图回答国际核危机究竟是什么,有哪些属性特征,引起核危机的原因是什么,国际核危机演变有什么规律,国际核危机是否可以被管理以及如何管理等问题。除绪论外,本文主要由第一到第四章和结语构成,围绕国际核危机与其管理进行论述。第一章主要探讨了国际核危机的概念、特征、类别、构成要素等主要属性,并分析了国际核危机的根源、演变进程,为研究国际核危机管理奠定基础。第二章对国际核危机管理的概念、目标、意义、主客体、层次与分段和原则进行了分析,并探讨了国际核危机预防与预警、决策、第三方管理的条件与作用。第三章和第四章是本文的案例分析部分,第三章探讨了南亚核危机的背景、根源、原因、发生与演变过程,并对印度与巴基斯坦两国以及国际社会第三方管理南亚核危机的方式及成效进行了分析。第四章探讨了朝鲜核危机的背景、根源、发生与演变过程,在此基础上对朝鲜、美国以及国际社会第三方对朝核危机的管理进行了分析,并对多边合作方式对朝核危机的适用性与成效进行了分析。结语分析了国际核危机给中国造成的负面影响,包括:恶化中国的安全环境、增大了中国卷入战争的可能、损害了核不扩散的公共利益以及干扰了中国的正常发展。提出中国的核危机管理战略应以国家利益为导向,根据核危机形势的变化,选择合适的途径与政策工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 International nuclear crisis is a serious threat to international and regional security and stability.Since the end of the Cold War,the international nuclear crisis happened frequently,has broke out the North Korean nuclear crisis,the South Asian nuclear crisis and the Iranian nuclear crisis,make a serious impact on international stability and regional security.Because of the tremendous threat to security on the international community by international nuclear crisis,which Involved in the international nuclear crisis integrated use of political,military,economic,and diplomatic means to the international nuclear crisis prevention,control,resolved to seek a peaceful solution to international nuclear crisis and avoid a nuclear war.In this paper,the international nuclear crisis,the parties manage behavior of the nuclear crisis,the factors of the international nuclear crisis process and management was the object of study.Explored in theory,based on the nuclear crisis on the international case studies to try to answer what is the international nuclear crisis,what are the properties of the characteristics of the nuclear crisis,what caused for that,what is the law of international nuclear crisis evolution,the possibility of an international nuclear crisis by management,as well as issues such as how to manage.In addition to introduction,the paper mainly to the fourth from the first chapter and concluding end.The first chapter discusses the concept of an international nuclear crisis, characteristics,categories,attributes and other key elements,and an analysis of the root causes of the international nuclear crisis,the evolution of the process for the study of international nuclear crisis management to lay the foundation.ChapterⅡanalysis the international nuclear crisis management concept,objectives, significance of subject and object,levels and Stages and the principle of international nuclear crisis management,and to explore the international nuclear crisis prevention and early warning,decision-making,third-party conditions and the role of management.ChaptersⅢandⅣare case studies part of this article,the third chapter discusses the background of the South Asian nuclear crisis,the origins,causes,occurrence and evolution of the two countries India and Pakistan,as well as third-party management of the international community the way the South Asian nuclear crisis and effectiveness analysis.ChapterⅣdiscusses the background of the North Korean nuclear crisis,the root causes of the occurrence and evolution,on the basis of the DPRK,the United States and the international community of third-party management of the North Korean nuclear crisis are analyzed,and multilateral cooperation on North Korean nuclear crisis the applicability and effectiveness analysis.Conclusion analyze the international nuclear crisis to the negative impact of Chinese,including the deterioration of China’s security environment,increases the possibility of Chinese involvement in the war,had undermined the nuclear non-proliferation,as well as the public interest,interfered with the normal development of China.To Chinese nuclear crisis management strategy should be country-oriented benefits,according to the changing situation of nuclear crisis,the ways and select the appropriate policy tool.更多还原